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On Thursday (07.09.2023) Indonesia Investments released the August 2023 edition of its monthly report. The report discusses a selection of key economic, political and social developments that were relevant in Indonesia in the month of August 2023.
It is important to put Indonesia into international context because decisions that are made by Indonesian policymakers are (partly) based on global developments.
Indonesia's national crude oil output remains dominated by a select group of companies. The five biggest oil producers in Indonesia - who together account for 73.34 percent of the nation's total oil production - are Chevron Pacific Indonesia, ExxonMobil, Pertamina EP, Pertamina Hulu Mahakam, and the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC).
While most of the focus, rightfully, remains centered on the disaster in Central Sulawesi where presumably thousands of people have lost their lives due to a big earthquake and devastating tsunami, it is worth keeping an eye on the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate which is again facing heavy pressures and has now slipped beyond the psychological boundary of IDR 15,000 per US dollar.
The Indonesian government emphasizes that the higher-than-estimated crude oil price will not destabilize the 2018 state budget. While the government set its Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) at USD $48 per barrel in the 2018 state budget, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent have already surpassed the USD $60 per barrel level, significantly higher than the assumption of the Indonesian government and therefore triggering some concern over rising energy subsidies.
The Indonesian government now allows private investors to develop oil refineries in Indonesia, effectively ending state-owned energy Pertamina's (virtual) monopoly. Before this new regulation, private companies had to cooperate with Pertamina to build oil refineries in Southeast Asia's largest economy. The new policy is an effort to boost domestic oil refinery capacity in Indonesia (hence limiting the need for refined fuel imports) and improve the investment climate by opening this industry to the private sector. This sector can also apply for tax incentives.
Crude oil prices are rebounding, climbing nearly 90 percent from 13-year lows at the start of 2016. However, compared to two years ago crude prices are still down 50 percent hence corporate earnings in the oil and gas industry remain subdued, while few investors are enticed to engage in exploration. To deal with low oil prices, oil and gas companies need to become more efficient thus pushing down production costs in order to optimize earnings. Lets take a look at Pertamina, Indonesia's state-owned energy company. How much does it cost for Pertamina to produce one barrel of oil?
Indonesia's upstream oil & gas regulator SKK Migas said the nation's crude oil production in the first quarter of 2016 reached the average of 835,234 barrels per day (bpd), slightly above the target of 830,000 bpd that was set in the 2016 State Budget. This is positive news as it is rare for Indonesia to achieve its crude oil output target. In Q1-2016 the target was met due to the combination of a realistic oil production target and long-awaited crude production growth at Exxon Mobil Corp's Banyu Urip field (part of the Cepu Block in East Java).
Indonesia's crude oil output was strong in the first quarter of 2016 on the back of higher-than-expected oil production of several oil companies in Indonesia. According to Indonesia's oil & gas regulator SKK Migas the nation's oil production totaled 833,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the January-March 2016 period, exceeding the oil lifting target that was set in the 2016 State Budget (830,000 bpd). It also means that the globe's low oil prices at the year-start, touching 12-year lows at around USD $27 per barrel, did not make local oil companies cut back on production rates.
Despite winter having arrived, global oil prices are still declining. Today (21/12), Brent crude prices plunged to the lowest level since 2004 on persistent concern about a global supply glut as the Energy Information Administration reported that US crude oil supplies rose 4.8 million barrels to 490.7 million in the second week of December, while the OPEC's production rate stood at 31.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in November 2015. Meanwhile, oil demand is expected to fall in 2016. For example, oil consumption in the USA is projected to fall to 1.2 million bpd next year, from 1.8 bpd in 2015.
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The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.16 percent to IDR 11,992 per US dollar on Monday (23/06) according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, thus extending the currency’s recent depreciating trend. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia's benchmark rupiah rate (known as the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, or, abbreviated JISDOR) depreciated 0.03 percent to IDR 11,971 against the greenback. What were the factors that influenced the rupiah’s performance today?
The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) declined 0.34 percent to 4,847.70 points on Friday (20/06). Trade was thin on this week’s last trading day with only about 3.4 billion shares - valued at IDR 3.8 trillion (USD $319 million) - being traded on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (well below the average daily value of IDR 6.1 trillion). Foreign investors accounted for 48 percent of total trading, recording net buying worth of IDR 31.3 billion (USD $2.6 million).
After the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate temporarily surpassed the psychological boundary of IDR 12,000 per US dollar on Wednesday (18/06), concerns about the fundamentals of the currency emerged. The currency has been under pressure recently due to external factors (monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions in Iraq) and domestic factors (large private debt, significant US dollar demand, the wide trade deficit and political uncertainty ahead of the presidential election).
The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.62 percent to IDR 11,893 per US dollar on Tuesday (17/06), a four-month low. The main reason behind this poor performance is increased concern about the impact of violence in northern Iraq - namely higher global oil prices - on Indonesia’s trade and budget deficits as Indonesia subsidises a significant amount of domestic fuels). As oil and gas imports accounted for about 23 percent of total imports of Indonesia in April 2014.
In the past week, the global crude oil price has increased considerably due to geopolitical tensions in Iraq which can disturb oil supplies from the Middle East. Up to the end of 2014, provided that no exceptional developments occur, the oil price is expected to range between USD $105-110 per barrel. Meanwhile, the Indonesian government announced that, despite the higher oil price putting pressure on the government’s budget balance, it will not increase prices of subsidized fuels this year.
General Director of Oil and Gas at the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Edy Hermantoro said at the 38th IPA Convention and Exhibition on Friday (23/05) that the Indonesian government plans to tender a total of 21 blocks of oil and gas in a first bidding round in 2014. This involves 13 conventional oil and gas blocks and eight non-conventional (shale) oil and gas blocks. The government expects that these oil and gas blocks will add 3.5 billion barrels of oil and 107.7 trillion cubic (tcf) of gas resources.
The sharply depreciated Indonesian rupiah exchange rate in the second half of 2013 in combination with the decline in domestic oil lifting has led to a soaring of fuel subsidy spending in 2014. In the 2014 State Budget (APBN 2014), the ceiling of energy subsidy spending for 3-kg LPG and fuels was set at IDR 210.7 billion (USD $18.3 billion). However, in the 2014 Revised State Budget Draft, the government proposes to raise the subsidy ceiling to IDR 285 trillion (USD $24.8 billion), thus swelling IDR 74.3 trillion from the initial ceiling.
The Regional Investment Coordinating Board said that Aceh (Sumatra), known for its strong Islamic identity, expects to receive IDR 5 trillion (USD $438.6 million) in foreign and domestic investment in 2014. In the first quarter of 2014, Indonesia's western-most province already saw IDR 2 trillion (USD $175.4 million) worth of investments. Aceh, a resource-rich province (in particular oil and natural gas), is one of the more mysterious Indonesian provinces and has had to deal with considerable negative publicity throughout its modern history.
Imports of oil will accelerate to 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2020 if fuels continue to be subsidized by the Indonesian government. This development will seriously burden Indonesia's trade balance (and current account). In 2013, Indonesia posted a trade deficit of USD $12.6 billion in the oil & gas sector. Due to improved performance in the non-oil & gas sector, the overall trade deficit was kept at USD $4.06 billion. Besides placing downward pressure on the rupiah exchange rate, expensive subsidies also burden the state budget.
Only 50 days since the start of the fiscal year 2014 have passed and the government has already shown that it is not convinced to meet targets of basic macroeconomic assumptions set in the 2014 State Budget (APBN 2014). Therefore, the Indonesian government has lowered the outlook for all basic macroeconomic assumptions in the 2014 State Budget. On Thursday 19 February 2014, the government formally presented the downward revision of economic targets in the State Budget to the House of Representitative's Budget Agency.
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