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Today's Headlines Energy
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry of Indonesia announced in January that the B35 biodiesel program is scheduled to be imposed on 1 February 2023 (implying a one-month delay as the B35 program was supposed to take off on 1 January 2023).
Indonesia ended 2022 with a modest increase in inflationary pressures. Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (or BPS) announced that December 2022 inflation reached 0.66 percent month-on-month (m/m), higher than our forecast of around 0.50 percent.
Again, we were surprised by the low level of inflation in Indonesia. While usually we see rising inflationary pressures in the month of November (ahead of the peak in the December-January period), this time it was a different story.
In line with our expectations, Indonesia’s headline inflation rate approached the 5.0 percent year-on-year (y/y) mark in July 2022 as Indonesia’s Statistical Office (BPS) determined inflation at 0.64 percent month-on-month (m/m) in July 2022.
The Indonesian government’s energy subsidy spending has always been a topic of controversy. By keeping fuel and electricity prices low the central government aims to support the Indonesian people as well as the micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) as – indeed – poverty remains a big problem in Indonesia; a country where nearly ten percent of the population lives below the national poverty line (which is 26.5 million individuals in absolute terms).
Last month we started our inflation update stating that “the global threat of inflation has not reached Indonesia yet”. One month later, it now seems that a high inflation cycle has arrived in Indonesia; one that may continue in the next couple of months.
On Wednesday 6 April 2022 Indonesia Investments released the March 2022 edition of its monthly report. This report discusses key economic, political and social developments that occurred in Indonesia in the month of March 2022.
Considering Indonesia is committed to the development of renewable energy in a bid to cut the country’s greenhouse gas emissions, while at the same time reducing its traditional dependence on fossil fuels such as coal and (mainly imported) diesel in terms of the energy supply, biomass is one of the options that can offer a solution.
Biodiesel, which is a form of diesel fuel that is derived from plants or animals (in the case of Indonesia it mainly uses fatty acid methyl ether, FAME, which is derived from palm oil), has been on the political agenda of Indonesia since the 1990s when the first (in-depth) research was conducted by a number of state agencies.
Despite several persistent challenges, geothermal energy remains a very interesting (and relatively environmentally friendly) power source for Indonesia. It is estimated that Indonesia is home to 40 percent of total global geothermal energy potential. But as impressive as that sounds, the country only uses a fraction of the potential. So, let’s take a look at recent developments in terms of geothermal power in Indonesia.
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West Kalimantan, South Sulawesi and South Kalimantan are the three Indonesian provinces that scored the worst in the Local Government Performance Index (in Indonesian: Indeks Kinerja Pemerintah Daerah, or IKPD). This index, compiled by Indonesia's Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK), measures the degree of coordination and supervision within Indonesian provinces regarding policies and actions related to the prevention of corruption in the mining and energy sectors. The provinces that have the highest scores are Central Sulawesi and the Riau Islands.
Indonesian President Joko Widodo (often called Jokowi) emphasized that the government of Indonesia needs to boost development of renewable energy. Although Indonesia contains huge potential for renewable energy (particularly geothermal energy), the share of renewable energy in Indonesia’s total energy use currently stands at around 5 percent only, the remainder being fossil energy. By providing incentives, attractive tariffs and an easier licensing and registration process, the government can generate more investment in this sector.
The Indonesian government plans to tender 25 new geothermal development sites with a total combined capacity of 1,225 megawatt (MW). These 25 projects will require a total of USD $4.6 billion worth of investments and help to achieve the government’s target to raise the portion of geothermal energy in the country’s energy mix to 7.1 percent by 2025. These 25 projects are in addition to the 31 geothermal development projects that are currently being constructed and which should be operational by 2020.
Growth of the manufacturing industry in Indonesia is expected to be significantly weaker in 2015 than initially forecast. Indonesia’s Industry Ministry cut its 2015 forecast for expansion of the country’s manufacturing industry to 6.1 percent (year-on-year) from the previous estimate of 6.8 percent. In tandem with slowing economic growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy, manufacturing growth has slowed to 4.99 percent (y/y) in Q3-2014. Moreover, the HSBC/Markit PMI contracted to a record low of 48.0 in November 2014.
Indonesia is facing the risk of becoming a net importer of energy by 2019 as the nation’s energy demand will reach 6.19 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) whereas the domestic energy supply will only reach 6.04 million boepd by that year. Provided that the economy of Indonesia remains expanding at a pace of +5 percent (year-on-year) while investments in energy exploration do not rise accordingly, Southeast Asia’s largest economy will become dependent on foreign energy supplies.
The new Joko Widodo-led government aims to triple domestic geothermal power production within the next five years in an effort to meet ever-increasing power demand in the world’s fourth-most populous country and to shift to more environment friendly energy sources (rather than the over-reliance on fossil fuels such as oil and coal). Although Indonesia is estimated to contain the world's largest geothermal energy reserves, the country only uses about four percent of its geothermal capacity potential.
When campaigning, presidential candidates will always promise a bright future in order to gain votes. It is particularly easy for a new presidential candidate to promise golden mountains as opposed to the incumbent president who needs to be more cautious making promises as people can point to the (failed) results of his promises during the presidential term. The 2014 Indonesian presidential election was particularly interesting as we saw two new presidential candidates and, thus, the ‘inflation of promises’.
After a long delay, Indonesia will finally start construction of the world's largest geothermal power plant, the USD $1.6 billion Sarulla project, in June 2014. Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Chairul Tanjung said earlier this week that the groundbreaking of the Sarulla project will start very soon as the government had settled the financial framework. The project was already initiated in 1990 but shelved due to various issues, including the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s. The first phase of the project is expected to be completed in 2016.
The sharply depreciated Indonesian rupiah exchange rate in the second half of 2013 in combination with the decline in domestic oil lifting has led to a soaring of fuel subsidy spending in 2014. In the 2014 State Budget (APBN 2014), the ceiling of energy subsidy spending for 3-kg LPG and fuels was set at IDR 210.7 billion (USD $18.3 billion). However, in the 2014 Revised State Budget Draft, the government proposes to raise the subsidy ceiling to IDR 285 trillion (USD $24.8 billion), thus swelling IDR 74.3 trillion from the initial ceiling.
In an attempt to attract investments in Indonesia's geothermal power sector, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to offer higher prices for geothermal-based electricity. Based on a recommendation from the World Bank, the new proposed geothermal-produced electricity price will range between 11.5 and 29 cents per KwH and will be effective until 2025. Currently, state-owned Perusahaan Listrik Negara pays between 10 and 18.5 cents per KwH to independent geothermal power producers (feed-in tariff).
