Although most stock markets in Asia were still in red territory, extending Monday's plunge, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah managed to rebound on Tuesday (05/01). Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rose 0.70 percent to 4,557.82 points. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah appreciated 0.37 percent to IDR 13,892 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). What happened on today's trading day and what explains the deviation between Indonesian assets and the general Asian trend?

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Contrary to expectations, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah had a weak start of the new year. On Monday (04/01) Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 1.46 percent to 4,525.92 points, while the Indonesian rupiah depreciated 0.82 percent to IDR 13,943 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). The performance of Indonesian stocks is in line with the performance of stocks around the globe. In China stock trading was even halted twice due to its plunging index. What happened today?

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Last year the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index) fell 12.13 percent to finish at 4,593.01 points on 30 December 2015 amid severe global uncertainty due to looming tighter monetary policy in the USA and the rapid economic slowdown of China. Today, the Indonesia Stock Exchange will have its first trading day of the new year. What do we expect from the performance of Indonesian stocks in January 2016?

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On 3 January 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as an overview of the performance of the Jakarta Composite Index in 2015, the best stock picks in 2016, Indonesia's biodiesel program, the fishery and banking sector, and much more.

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Although challenges persist, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) is estimated to rise in 2016, surpassing the level of 5,000 points. Last year the index fell 12.13 percent to close at 4,593.01 points. In particular Indonesia's infrastructure, banking, consumption, cement, property and construction sectors are expected to post a good performance this year on the back of accelerated domestic economic growth supported by government spending and the recent economic stimulus packages.

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The last trading day of 2015 on the Indonesia Stock Exchange has passed and now it is time to look back on the performance of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) and the rupiah during 2015. The year 2015 was a hectic year, characterized by volatile behavior due to uncertainty about the timing of the looming US interest rate hike (which was finally decided upon by the Federal Reserve in December 2015) and the economic slowdown of China.

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Stock indices in Southeast Asia plunged on Friday (18/12), led by benchmark indices in Thailand and Indonesia. These Asian markets followed the global correction that occurred after investors weighed in the possible impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. US and European stocks dropped on Thursday and Friday, while prices of oil and other commodities continued to slide. Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index fell 1.92 percent to 4,468.65 points.

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After the rally on Thursday (responding positively to the Federal Reserve's announcement to raise its Fed Fund Rate), Indonesian assets are weakening on Friday (18/12) while most other Asian markets are down. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index was down 1.20 percent to 4,501.34 points by 09:45 am local Jakarta time, while the Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 14,040 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). As such, Indonesian stocks are following the example of US stocks that plunged overnight.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah responded highly positive to the decision of the US Federal Reserve to raise its key Fed Fund Rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday (16/12). Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) soared 1.62 percent to 4,555.96 points, while the rupiah appreciated 0.44 percent to IDR 14,009 per US dollar. Not only in Indonesia but also globally stocks thrived on the ending of prolonged uncertainty about the timing of the US interest rate hike.

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The US Federal Reserve finally decided to raise the Fed Fund Rate by 25 basis points at its December policy meeting (15-16 December) on a considerable improvement in US labor market conditions (the US unemployment rate having fallen to 5 percent) and US inflation projected to meet the Fed's 2 percent target over the medium term. After this announcement US stocks soared. Emerging markets were not hit by severe capital outflows after the rate hike. Asian stock indices strengthened sharply on Thursday morning (17/12).

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After several days of strong performance, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) felt the impact of profit taking on Tuesday (16/04). As a consquence, the IHSG's upward movement was limited and unable to completely close the gap at 4,829-4,906. At the start of the trading day, the index opened positively, but during the day - when a number of Asian indices were down - the IHSG's performance was curbed. Indonesia's benchmark index gained 0.11 percent to 4,870.21 points.

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Investors’ appetite for Indonesian stocks, particularly the big cap stocks, made Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) rise further on Monday (14/04). Most of the sectoral indices were up, led by the property sector and followed by basic industries. Contrary to most Asian indices, which were mixed today (with raw materials in particular being sold by investors), the IHSG managed to climb 1.00 percent to 4,864.88 points.

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Despite various negative sentiments, Indonesia's benchmark stock index was able to post a 1.30 percent gain to 4,921.04 points on Monday (07/04). Due to last week's weak March US monthly jobs report, falling indices on Wall Street on Friday (04/04) impacted negatively on Asian indices today. On the domestic side, negative market sentiments were caused by the government's plan to raise royalties for coal miners working under a Mining Business License (IUP) to 10-13.5 percent as well as a luxury tax on cars and telecommunication gadgets.

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Previously we advised investors to be careful because various economic data that was to be released - both international and domestic - could reveal negative results and thus put great pressure on the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index) on Tuesday (01/04). However, the data, particularly domestic data, were positive and made the IHSG jump 2.22 percent one day after the holiday on Monday (Nyepi or Hindu New Year). Investors used this context to purchase stocks, especially Indonesia's big cap stocks.

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During most of the day, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) moved in the green zone, seemingly unaffected by falling indices on Wall Street on Wednesday (26/03). However, just before the trading day closed  market participants engaged in profit taking causing the 0.11 percent decline of the IHSG to 4,723.06 points. It is difficult to pinpoint the exact reason for this occurrence. Perhaps because Asian indices turned mixed after China's benchmark index fell as China's latest industrial profit growth data were weak.

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Despite technical indicators suggesting further upward movement of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG), a positive performance of the index was blocked by external factors. Several Asian stock indices were down responding to Markit's lower US manufacturing PMI (slipping to 55.5 from 57.1 in February 2014). Similarly, China and the Eurozone's manufacturing data showed slowing growth. Continued appreciation of the rupiah exchange rate managed to limit the decline of the IHSG.

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At the start of the new week, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) was able to continue to climb, supported by positive Asian indices. Today, investors took advantage of discounted stocks in Asia as markets had fallen after the Federal Reserve's announcement last week that the quantitative easing program would be wound down further as well as a possible US interest rate hike in 2015 and 2016. However, the IHSG was also vulnerable to profit taking. Therefore, today's gain was limited.

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The US Federal Reserve's plan to increase interest rates is a serious threat to the stock and bonds markets of emerging markets, including Indonesia, in 2014. The higher Fed Fund rate will result in a high cost bonds-climate in Indonesia. The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday (19/03) that it continues to cut its quantitative easing program (QE3) by USD $10 billion in March 2014 as well as aims for an interest rate hike six months after the 'tapering' has ended. With the current pace, QE3 is expected to end in December 2014.

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We expected that Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index (the country's benchmark stock index also known as IHSG) would continue to weaken on Wednesday's trading day (19/03) but net buying by foreign investors managed to push the index back into green territory. During the first two days of this week, the IHSG fell as euphoria over Joko Widodo's announcement to run for president in the 2014 elections faded. Last week, the market showed that they approve of Widodo as the IHSG climbed 3.23 percent on Friday (14/03).

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Previously we were hoping that if global stock indices would turn positive, it could limit the fall of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) as the 'Jokowi effect' has definately worn off. On Tuesday (18/03), investors continued to engage in profit taking causing the IHSG to plunge 1.45 percent to 4,805.61 points. While most Asian indices were up, influenced by rising indices on Wall Street and in Europe on the previous trading day (17/03), the IHSG deviated sharply from the Asian trend today.

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