Efforts to raise people's purchasing power and household consumption in Indonesia will be key to push for higher economic growth in 2016. According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached 4.92 percent (y/y) in the first quarter of 2016. Although this result failed to meet analysts' projections (which generally stood around 5 percent y/y), it was higher than the 4.73 percent (y/y) economic growth pace that was posted in the same quarter one year earlier.

Read more ›

Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced today that the nation's trade balance posted a USD $490 million trade surplus in March 2016. In line with analysts' forecasts, Indonesia's March trade surplus shrank considerably from a USD $1.1 billion surplus one month earlier. Indonesia's March exports reached a total of USD $11.79 billion, while imports were recorded at USD $11.30 billion. Although the nation's exports and imports rose compared to the preceding month, there remains ongoing concern about the slumping export/import figures on a year-on-year basis.

Read more ›

After having experienced 17 straight months of contraction in the manufacturing sector, the Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) survey rose to a reading of 50.6 in March 2016 from 48.7 in the preceding month (a reading above 50 indicates expansion of manufacturing activity) according to a statement released on Friday (01/04). This is very positive news although Indonesia's export performance remains in a state of decline. Manufacturing expansion was primarily caused by a rise in domestic demand.

Read more ›

The government of Indonesia unveiled its eleventh economic stimulus package. The country's Chief Economics Minister Darmin Nasution presented the package at the State Palace in Jakarta on Tuesday (29/03). Indonesia's latest stimulus package includes a lower tax rate on property purchased by local real estate investment trusts, the harmonization of customs checks across the nation's ports (curtailing dwell time), government subsidies for loans taken up Indonesia's export-oriented small and medium enterprises, and the drawing of a roadmap for the nation's pharmaceutical industry.

Read more ›

Research institution Supply Chain Indonesia, which mainly focuses on logistics matters, requests the government to reevaluate its plan to use three ports in Banten (West Java) to take over some of the workload of Jakarta's Tanjung Priok port, Indonesia's largest seaport. Due to inefficiencies at Tanjung Priok, which handles about two-thirds of Indonesia's total international trade, dwelling time at this seaport is high and this gives rise to port congestion and high logistics costs. The government therefore wants three ports in Banten to support Tanjung Priok's trade activities.

Read more ›

Indonesia's current account deficit is expected to rise to USD $26 billion, or 2.6 percent of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP), in 2016. This increase is expected because rising investment and infrastructure development in Indonesia will require more imports from abroad. In 2015 Indonesia's current account deficit was recorded at USD $17.8 billion (2.06 percent of GDP), improving from a USD $27.5 billion deficit (3.09 percent of GDP) in the preceding year (when Indonesia touched a record high current account deficit, and which seriously undermined investors' confidence in the nation's assets).

Read more ›

Indonesia's trade surplus was better than expected in February 2016. Today, Indonesia's Statistics agency (BPS) announced that the nation's trade surplus was recorded at USD $1.14 billion in the second month of the year, considerably higher compared to the revised USD $10 million surplus Indonesia recorded in the preceding month. Suryamin, Chairman of BPS, said this surplus was the biggest February surplus in the last five years. Another positive sign is that - although continuing to decline in February - the contraction of Indonesia's exports in February occurred at the slowest rate since October 2014.

Read more ›

By September 2016 the Indonesian government plans to have revised regulations regarding exports of mineral ore, part of Law No. 4/2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining (New Mining Law). Per January 2014 mineral ore exports from Indonesia should have been banned altogether as the government aims to boost domestic smelter development and reduce the country's dependence on raw material exports. However, a last-minute regulation, signed in January 2014, softened this ban and allowed exports of copper, manganese, zinc, lead, and iron ore concentrates until 2017. Now the government may decide for a two-year delay up to 2019.

Read more ›

Indonesia's commodity-rich East Kalimantan is one of the worst affected Indonesian provinces in terms of global trade and weak commodity prices. East Kalimantan's export performance is heavily dependent on prices of oil, natural gas and coal. In 2015 the total value of East Kalimantan's exports plunged 30.4 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $18.3 billion from USD $26.35 billion in the preceding year. Since 2011 the province's exports have posted a consecutive annual decline in line with the declining trend of commodity prices.

Read more ›

Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced on Monday (15/02) that Indonesia's trade balance turned back into a (small) surplus in January 2016. In the first month of the year, Indonesia posted a trade surplus of USD $50.6 million, beating analyst forecasts. In the preceding two months the country had to cope with a trade deficit. After the news, Indonesia's currency appreciated markedly against the US dollar. However, on a year-on-year (y/y) basis Indonesia's exports and imports are still significantly down and there remains much cause for concern.

Read more ›

The slowdown of Indonesia's economic growth is expected to continue into the third quarter of 2013. The Indonesian government predicts that economic growth will fall below the GDP growth figure realized in the second quarter (5.8 percent). Acting Head of the Fiscal Policy Agency Bambang Brodjonegoro stated that the main factor that causes the country's slowing economic growth in Q3-2013 is reduced household consumption. Domestic consumption in Indonesia accounts for about 55 percent of the country's GDP growth.

Read more ›

In its most recent report regarding Indonesia's economy, the World Bank states that high logistic costs form a serious impediment to the country's economic growth. The report, titled Annual Logistics Report, is compiled by Bandung Institute of Technology’s Research Center for Logistics and Supply Chains, the Indonesian Logistics Association (ALI), the STC Group, Panteia Research Institute, and the World Bank Indonesia Office. The report provides an analysis and overview of the progress made in tackling the problem of logistics in Indonesia.

Read more ›

According to global credit rating and research agency Fitch Ratings, Indonesia's major banks are robust against the rupiah currency slide due to their low unhedged foreign currency exposure, strong loss-absorption cushions and - in some cases - foreign ownership. The slowdown in the economy will weigh on these (rated) banks' operating environment, but is unlikely to damage their credit profiles to any great extent. Below we provide Fitch Ratings' report. This report can also be accessed on their website.

Read more ›

Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) went down 2.23 percent on Monday (02/09) after Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released a number of macroeconomic data. The country's inflation pace increased to 8.79 percent year-on-year, while it posted a record monthly trade deficit in July 2013 (USD $2.31 billion). Investors have been highly concerned about the development of Indonesia's current account deficit and after it became known that the figure was high in July, the IHSG quickly lost value.

Read more ›

The government of Indonesia has revised the macroeconomic assumptions that are stated in the State Budgets (APBN) of 2013 and 2014 after a meeting with the budgetary body of the House of Representatives (Badan Anggaran DPR) on Wednesday (28/08). It is the third time that the 2013 State Budget has been revised in order to put it more in line with recent global developments. As the government was also too optimistic when drafting the 2014 Budget, it felt the need for a revision (only 12 days after the announcement of the Budget).

Read more ›

Indonesia's current account deficit, which caused much alarm among the investor community, is expected to ease to about 2.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second half of 2013. This assumption is supported by Indonesia's central bank and various analysts. The country's current account deficit reached USD $9.8 billion or 4.4 percent of GDP in Q2-2013. In combination with the weakening rupiah, higher inflation and the possible end to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, investors have been pulling money out of Indonesia.

Read more ›

As had been announced previously, today (23/08) the government of Indonesia released an 'emergency plan' that aims to improve the financial sector while restoring confidence in the country's fundamentals as turmoil emerged on Indonesia's stock exchange, bonds market and the rupiah. Economic minister Hatta Rajasa said that this plan consists of four packages. These four packages cover the current account deficit, rupiah performance, economic growth, purchasing power, inflation and investments.

Read more ›

For several weeks now, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) has been experiencing a sharp correction. As I wrote in my previous columns, market participants have been waiting for several important macro economic data, to wit Indonesia's economic growth figure for the second quarter of 2013, the July 2013 inflation rate, and the country's trade balance statistics for the first six months of this year. Now all above results have been released, we can analyze further the impact of these macroeconomic results as well as investors' reaction to it.

Read more ›

The foreign exchange reserves of Indonesia keep on falling from its historical peak of USD $124.64 billion in August 2011 to USD $92.67 billion at the end of July 2013. This development seems to highlight long-standing weaknesses in Indonesia's sovereign's external finances, as credit agency Fitch Ratings detected on several occasions before. The republic of Indonesia is currently characterized by four deficits, to wit a current account deficit, a balance of payments deficit, a trade balance deficit and a fiscal deficit.

Read more ›

Worldwide, most stock indices fell on Wednesday (07/08), particularly Japan's Nikkei index, after it has been speculated that the Federal Reserve may phase out the third round of its quantitative easing program in September 2013. This program, involving a monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying package, aims to spur US economic growth while keeping interest rates low. However, one important side effect has been rising stock markets around the globe. Now the end of QE3 is in sight, investors shy away from riskier assets.

Read more ›