Below is a list with tagged columns and company profiles.
Today's Headlines Trade Balance
Indonesia posted a strong USD $3.12 billion trade surplus in August 2023. It is the 40th consecutive month of trade surpluses for Southeast Asia’s biggest economy, an indication that global commodity prices (particularly coal and palm oil, which are the key non-oil and gas export items of Indonesia) remain at lucrative levels.
In July 2023 we saw a relatively modest trade surplus for Indonesia at USD $1.31 billion, down heavily from USD $3.45 billion in the previous month when it was the weak import performance that allowed Southeast Asia’s largest economy to enjoy a wide trade surplus.
Last month, we were bracing for the first (monthly) trade deficit of Indonesia since April 2020 amid declining exports (in line with normalizing global commodity prices and subdued global economic growth) and elevated imports. However, this trade deficit didn’t arrive.
On 15 May 2023 Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS) released the latest trade data of Indonesia. As expected, we saw a heavy decline in Indonesia’s export and import performance in April 2023. But, because imports plunged heavier than exports, it also meant Indonesia could enjoy a comfortable USD $3.94 billion trade surplus.
In mid-January 2023 Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) released Indonesia’s December 2022 trade data, implying we now also have a clear view of the country’s trade performance in full-2022.
Over the past two (or three) months we have emphasized that it is worth following Indonesia’s trade performance in the last quarter of 2022 (Q4-2022) as these export and import data should give some clues whether the world (and Indonesia) is bound to experience an economic hiccup at the beginning of 2023.
Last month, when we discussed the trade performance of Indonesia, we questioned whether the steep decline in the country’s exports and imports in September 2022 (compared to August 2022) could actually be a tipping point for national trade.
Indonesia’s export performance was impressive in August 2022, touching a new all-time record level of USD $27.91 billion. It was particularly the strong rebound in the value of refined palm oil shipments that pushed Indonesian exports higher. Imports into Indonesia also increased, albeit at a much slower pace, which especially came on the back of sharp growth in imports of capital goods.
In line with our forecast, Indonesian exports to overseas markets declined mildly in July 2022 (compared to the previous month). However, unlike last month’s forecast, imports into Indonesia expanded mildly over the same period.
As expected, Indonesia’s trade performance rebounded strongly in June 2022. This was certainly not a surprise considering the country’s exports had been held back significantly in May 2022 because of the government’s palm oil export ban that was imposed between 28 April 2022 and 23 May 2022 (in an effort to stabilize domestic cooking oil prices).
Latest Columns Trade Balance
For three consecutive days, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) had to cope with significant losses. On Tuesday (11/06), the index fell 3.50 percent to 4,609.95 points, considerably below its record high level of 5,214 on 20 May 2013. Foreign investors recorded a net sell of IDR 3.98 trillion (USD $406.1 million) as domestic conditions in Indonesia are unstable. Moreover, investors are concerned about governments (USA and Japan) that want to slow down their stimulus programs as various economic data are showing positive outcomes.
Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was mixed on Tuesday's trading day (04/06) as negative market sentiments were still felt after yesterday's tumble (inflicted by Indonesia's April trade deficit). Foreigners continued to sell parts of their Indonesian stock portfolios causing the index to fall below the psychological boundary of 5,000 points, which also meant that it went into oversold territory. But the rise of the Yen, thus supporting Asian indices, in combination with positive openings in Europe made the IHSG rise in the end.
Indonesia's trade balance recorded another deficit in April 2013 as imports (USD $16.31 billion) exceeded exports (USD $14.70 billion). April's trade deficit, amounting to USD $1.62 billion, was mainly due to continued weak commodity exports in combination with strong oil, basic machinery and utensils imports. After five consecutive months of deficits up to February, Indonesia’s trade account reported a surplus of USD $330 million in March, but fell back into deficit in April. From January to April, Indonesia's trade deficit stands at USD $1.85 billion.
Asian stock markets were mixed on Thursday (30/05). Particularly Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HSI) was negatively influenced by Wednesday's falling stock indices in Europe and the USA. In this context, Indonesia's main index (IHSG) was hit as well and fell 1.37 percent to 5,129.65 points. Moreover, the continuing decline of the IDR rupiah makes market participants less enthusiastic to purchase Indonesian stocks. Foreigners were also anxious to sell part of their stock portfolios.
Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia or BI) announced on Wednesday (15/05/13) that the country's external balance has improved during Q1-2013 as non-oil and gas trade were up. Indonesia's current account deficit stood at USD $5.3 billion (2.4 percent of GDP) in Q1-2013, compared to the previous quarter's deficit of USD $7.6 billion (3.5 percent of GDP). Indonesia has experienced a widening trade deficit, although it recorded a trade surplus of USD $304.90 in March, the first trade surplus since September 2012.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia, or BI) decided to maintain its record low policy rate for the 15th straight month at 5.75 percent as it is considered consistent with its inflation target range of 3.5-5.5 percent in 2013 and 2014. The central bank also stated that the global economic recovery is accompanied by many uncertainties which result in a lower forecast for Indonesia's economic growth. The full press release of Bank Indonesia can be read below.
The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) experienced a mixed week. At the start of the week, the index rose, but towards the end of the week it weakened, although ending in the green on Friday. Recently, the IHSG has hit record levels, and this makes market participants worried that the index might fall in case there emerge negative market sentiments. These concerns are what made the index turn away from the next psychological boundary: 5,000 points.
Usually, news about inflation is not well-received by market participants. Particularly when inflation turns out to be higher than expected. This time, however, something interesting happened in Indonesia. Although the country's March inflation rate was high (5.90 percent year-on-year), it was not followed up by a negative response of market players. In fact, the inflation rate seems to have strengthened the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG), which gained 0.40 percent on Tuesday.
Yesterday, Statistics Indonesia (BPS), a non-departmental government institution, released Indonesia's export and import numbers of February 2013. Indonesia's imports reached US $15.32 billion, while its exports stood at US $14.99 billion. It has thus resulted in the continuation of a trade deficit (US $327.4 million). For Indonesia, which always reported trade surpluses until last year, it is a worrying scenario as the trade deficit and higher inflation put pressure on the IDR rupiah.
After continuously reaching new record-high levels last week, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) finally had to give up some of its gain and closed 1.04 percent lower. Declining Asian stock markets (excluding Japan's main index) and fears that the IHSG had already reached a (too) high level impacted on today's result. Market participants, who recently confirmed good corporate annual results of many companies by buying, now engaged in profit taking.
