Indonesian stocks continued to fall today (30/04). After the first trading session, Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.11 percent to 5,099.83 points. The index was negatively affected by yesterday’s weakening stock indices in the USA and Europe. These indices experienced a correction due to mixed signals stemming from the latest US Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting. Contrary to its March policy statement, the Fed did not rule out hiking rates at the next meeting. However, it also downgraded the US growth outlook.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) is again plagued by selling pressures on Wednesday’s trading day (29/04). After today’s first trading session the index was down 2.58 percent to 5,106.73 points. The decline is caused by the persistence of the negative sentiments that have been felt over the past couple of days (explained below) coupled with a discrepancy in economic growth forecasts between the Indonesian government and the country’s central bank (Bank Indonesia).

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Indonesian stocks continue to fall on today’s trading day (28/04). After having declined 3.49 percent yesterday, the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell a further 1.00 percent during the first trading session on Tuesday. Investors, particularly foreign ones, are still concerned about weak first quarter financial results of listed Indonesian companies, signalling that the country’s economic growth in Q1-2015 will be disappointing too. Furthermore, the market is waiting for results of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting which is set to start today.

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Indonesian stocks fell sharply after the market opened on Monday (27/04). Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index had dropped 2.61 percent to 5,293.73 points by 12:00 local Jakarta time. This poor performance is most likely due to market participants wait & see attitude before the release of Indonesia’s Q1-2015 GDP growth figure (to be released at the start of May) and the release of Indonesian companies’ Q1-2015 financial earnings reports. Moreover, Indonesia will soon execute several foreign convicted drug traffickers.

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Over the past week the Indonesian rupiah depreciated 0.60 percent to IDR 12,941 per US dollar (Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate). At the start of the week the rupiah experienced severe pressure as market participants were concerned about Indonesia’s slowing economic growth. However, in the second half of the week, Indonesia’s currency somewhat improved as the US dollar was negatively affected by weak US economic data. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah finished at IDR 12,922 per US dollar on Friday (24/04).

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Per May 2015 the government of Indonesia will offer tax breaks to companies that export a minimum of 30 percent of their production. Earlier this month, Indonesian President Joko Widodo signed a package that includes the tax break for exporters as well as a tax break for multinational companies that are willing to re-invest profits in Indonesia instead of sending profits and dividends to shareholders abroad. This package is designed to improve Indonesia’s trade balance (and the related current account balance).

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced that the country’s foreign exchange reserves fell by USD $3.9 billion to USD $111.6 billion at the end of March 2015 as the central bank used part of the forex reserves to support the Indonesian rupiah which had started to depreciate markedly due to bullish US dollar momentum amid further looming monetary tightening in the USA. The rupiah had fallen to a 17-year low of IDR 13,237 per US dollar in mid-March as market players are anticipating an interest rate hike in the USA.

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Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest FOMC meeting (17-18 March), released Wednesday (08/04), show that the US central bank is divided about the timing of higher US interest rates. Several policymakers would approve such an interest rate hike in June 2015, while others would prefer to see rates increase later this year or even next year as they consider that the US economy is still not strong enough yet. However, when reading the minutes there are some signs suggesting that the institution is on course to raise its key rate this year.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are performing well on Monday’s trading day (06/04) after weak US economic data suggests that the US central bank (Federal Reserve) will still refrain from raising its key interest rate too soon. Weaker-than-expected US jobs data caused that most Southeast Asian stock markets strengthened today. Moreover, the rupiah also felt the positive impact. According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had appreciated 0.54 percent to IDR 12,950 per US dollar by 15:17 pm local Jakarta time.

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Indonesian stocks continued to climb strongly after the market opened on Tuesday (31/03). The country’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) surged nearly one percent. Several external and internal factors are at play here. Firstly, the US Federal Reserve indicated over the past week that it may not raise its key interest rate too soon, leading to investors’ appetite for emerging market assets. Secondly, Chinese policymakers provided room for increased infrastructure spending and monetary stimulus.

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In 2013, Indonesia experienced a rough year in terms of stock trading. The world was shocked by Ben Bernanke’s speech in late May 2013 in which he hinted at an end to the Federal Reserve’s large monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying program known as quantitative easing. Through this program, cheap US dollars found their way to lucrative yet riskier assets in emerging economies, including Indonesia. But when the end of the program was in sight, the market reacted by pulling billions of US dollars from emerging market bonds and equities.

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On Wednesday (05/02), Statistics Indonesia (BPS) reported that the economy of Indonesia expanded 5.78 percent in 2013. This result implies that in 2013 Indonesia experienced the slowest pace of GDP growth since its 4.63 percentage growth in 2009. However, this slowing growth was basically self-inflicted as both the Indonesian government and central bank (Bank Indonesia) used various monetary and fiscal policies to curb economic expansion in order to tackle several financial issues.

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The pace of Indonesia's monthly January inflation rate was higher in 2014 than in the same month during the past five years. This relatively high inflation rate this year, recorded at 1.07 percent, was caused by severe rainfall and floods in several parts of Indonesia (particularly in the cities of Jakarta and Manado) amid the peak of the rainy season. These weather-related circumstances impacted on prices of food products as distribution channels were disrupted, thus giving rise to increasing prices. Annual inflation, however, slightly eased.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) was again affected by profit taking after market participants saw falling indices on Wall Street and in Europe at the end of last week due to various negative sentiments including the Federal Reserve's tapering issue, slowing Chinese manufacturing and the release of several global companies' financial reports that were below expectation. Moreover, the rupiah exchange rate continued to depreciate while Asian indices were down on Monday (03/02).

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Despite the release of positive macroeconomic data on Monday (03/02), Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 12,240 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. China’s Manufacturing PMI fell to a six-month low of 50.5 in January and put pressure on stocks and currencies in emerging markets. Moreover, the Federal Reserve's further reduction of its quantitative easing program (to USD $65 billion per month) continues to strengthen the US dollar at the expense of emerging currencies.

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The Jakarta Globe reported that Schroders Indonesia will increase its Indonesian assets by 5 to 10 percent in 2014 as the company expects the country's benchmark stock index (IHSG) to rise amid the legislative and presidential elections that are scheduled for April and July 2014. Schroders is optimistic that growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy will accelerate after the hiccup in 2013 when large capital outflows emerged amid international and domestic troubles. Indonesia's GDP growth is estimated to have slowed to 5.7 percent in 2013.

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Today (27/01), Indonesia's benchmark stock index (the Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) fell 2.58 percent to 4,322.78 points. This sharp decline can only be explained by profit taking amid market uncertainty. As I have reported before, the IHSG is highly susceptible to profit taking when negative sentiments arise in the market. Factors that accounted for these sentiments were the continued depreciation of the rupiah exchange rate and falling Asian stock markets (that were impacted by Wall Street's negative ending last week).

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In the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.47 percent to IDR 12,238 per US dollar on Monday (27/01). The decline of the rupiah was in line with today's trend of weakening Asia Pacific currencies (against the US dollar). Meanwhile, the central bank's mid rate (the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate or JISDOR) depreciated 0.17 percent to IDR 12,198 per US dollar. Market participants are concerned about Indonesia's January 2014 inflation and further Federal Reserve tapering.

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In the fourth week of January, Bank Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate (the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate or JISDOR) depreciated 0.41 percent against the US dollar. This weakening trend of the rupiah was caused by various factors. Most importantly, the US dollar has been gaining strength against emerging currencies, including Indonesia, as speculation emerged that the Federal Reserve will curtail its massive monthly bond-buying program (quantitative easing) by more than just USD $10 billion per month.

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The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.13 percent to IDR 12,181 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Friday (24/01). Asian currencies felt the impact of a contraction of Chinese manufacturing as HSBC’s preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index slipped to 49.6 in January 2014. Meanwhile, US existing homes sales in December were best since 2006 while US jobless claims were near a six-week low. These data fuel speculation that the Fed will continue to wind down its bond-buying program.

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