In order to support Indonesia's sharply depreciated rupiah exchange rate, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia or BI) improved provisions for Hedge Swap Transactions through Bank Indonesia Regulation No.15/17/PBI/2013 (which takes effect as of 3 February 2014). Through this arrangement, Indonesian banks can sell their US dollars to BI at the current spot rate and promise to buy the amount at a later date on an agreed rate. This protects banks against fluctuations in the rupiah exchange rate.

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Ahead of the new year, the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate continues its downward trend on Monday (30/12). Bank Indonesia's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR) fell to IDR 12,270 per US dollar from IDR 12,260 on the previous trading day. Due to the improving US economy, the US dollar keeps appreciating against the majority of emerging currencies. At most local Indonesian banks, the rupiah is traded significantly above the psychological level of IDR 12,000 per US dollar.

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Indonesia's Finance Minister Chatib Basri expects that Indonesia's economic growth in 2013 will reach 5.7 percent, significantly below the government's initial target of 6.3 percent. Basri announced his expectation at the government's economic evaluation and projection meeting. According to Basri, Indonesia's economic growth is stable, despite its slowing trend. Among the G20 member countries, only China will post higher GDP growth (7.8 percent up to the third quarter). Indonesia's inflation rate is expected to reach 8.5 percent (yoy) at the year-end.

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In Bank Indonesia's Board of Governors' meeting - held on Thursday (12/12) - it was decided to keep the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent. Executive Director of Bank Indonesia's Communication Department Difi A. Johansyah said that the current rate of 7.50 percent is in line with the institution's inflation target of 4.5 percent (plus or minus one percent). The lending facility and deposite facility (Fasbi) rates are also maintained at 7.5 percent and 5.75 percent respectively.

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According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate fell 0.09 percent to IDR 11,976 per US dollar as per 13:46:18 local Jakarta time on Friday (06/12). It is expected that this slight depreciation of the rupiah will continue for the remainder of the trading day. The rupiah received some support from Moody's Investors Service, which stated that the rupiah depreciation itself is not a trigger for a rating downgrade. The ratings agency affirmed the country's Baa3 rating due to Indonesia's strong growth and low debt level.

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The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate continued its depreciation on Wednesday (04/12). The central bank's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate fell 1.09 percent to IDR 11,960 per US dollar after absorbing the impact of the currency's weak performance on yesterday's spot market. On Tuesday (03/12), local Indonesian companies were buying US dollars at a more attractive exchange rate after the currency had appreciated previously, thus placing serious downward pressure on the currency of Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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Although according to Bank Indonesia's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, the Indonesian IDR rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.97 percent to IDR 11,830 per US dollar on Tuesday (03/12), the currency declined 0.98 percent to IDR 11,885 as of 02.01 ET according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The difference between both rates is caused by the fact that Bank Indonesia's rate had not yet absorbed the positive reaction of market participants toward trade and inflation data that were released on Monday (02/12).

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate extended its losing streak on Thursday (28/11). Bank Indonesia's mid rate plunged 0.99 percent to IDR 11,930 per US dollar, thus moving closer toward the psychological level of 12,000. Various local banks have already set the value of the currency above the 12,000 level on the spot market. It is the weakest level of the rupiah since 2009. Since Monday (25/11), the mid rate has depreciated 1.77 percent. This year so far, the currency has fallen 23.37 percent, thus becoming the worst performing Asian currency.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate maintained its downward trend on Wednesday (27/11). Bank Indonesia's mid rate depreciated 0.41 percent to IDR 11,813 per US dollar. Investors remain concerned about Indonesia's wide current account deficit. Today, Finance Minister Chatib Basri said that the current account deficit will be around USD $30 billion by the end of 2013, significantly up from USD $24 billion at the end of 2012. In the third quarter of 2013, the current account deficit was USD $8.4 billion (3.8 percent of Indonesia's GDP).

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On Tuesday (26/11), Bank Indonesia's mid rate depreciated 0.37 percent to IDR 11,765 per US dollar, which is the lowest level the currency has touched since March 2009. Main reason for today's decline is the government's US dollar-denominated bond auction yesterday (25/11) that fell USD $450 million short of its target. The bond issuance was negatively impacted by investors' concern about the looming scaling back of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program as US economic data improve.

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Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) fell 0.43 percent to 5,220.00 points on Monday (05/01) amid profit taking on a relatively quiet trading day on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.55 percent to IDR 12,614 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index as concerns about Greece exiting the euro intensified and boosted US dollar demand. Moreover, market participants were still reacting to Indonesia’s latest trade and inflation data.

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External debt of Indonesia grew at a pace of 10.7 percent year-on-year (y/y) in October 2014, slightly slower than the 11.2 percentage point (y/y) growth pace in the previous month, according to a statement of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia). Total outstanding external debt of Indonesia reached USD $294.5 billion in October (from USD $292.3 billion in the previous month). While growth of public sector external debt slowed in October, private sector external debt accelerated.

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Indonesia’s rupiah exchange rate and stocks opened stable on Wednesday (17/12) after two days marked by severe pressures on emerging market assets. By 11:30 am local Jakarta time, Indonesia’s rupiah was down 0.09 percent to IDR 12,736 per US dollar (according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index), while Indonesian stocks were up 0.41 percent by the same time. Yesterday, the rupiah nearly touched IDR 13,000 per US dollar (its lowest level since the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997-1998), before the central bank decided to support the currency.

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Amid weakening emerging Asian currencies, Indonesia’s rupiah exchange rate touched a six-year low on Friday (12/12) after US consumer spending rose in November while US jobless claims fell (signalling a strong recovery in the world’s largest economy). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah depreciated 0.95 percent to IDR 12,467 per US dollar on Friday. Besides the impact of the US dollar’s bullish momentum, the rupiah also weakened on year-end US dollar demand from local companies for debt payments.

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Contrary to the previous trading day, most emerging Asian currencies strengthened against the US dollar on Tuesday (09/12) supported by the yen’s advance as falling oil prices dented risk appetite. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s rupiah appreciated 0.47 percent to IDR 12,331 per US dollar today. Despite local firms’ increased US dollar demand to settle debt before the year-end, market participants were happy to learn that Indonesia’s central bank is active in the foreign exchange market to guard the currency.

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Despite positive stock indices in the USA and Europe at the end of last week as well as mostly positive indices in Asia today (08/12), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) fell due to investors’ appetite for profit taking. Several matters made investors decide to sell their Indonesia shares, including the World Bank’s downward revision of Indonesia’s economic growth in 2015, Japan’s recession, weakening Chinese exports, and the sharply depreciating rupiah exchange rate.

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In line with most other Asian emerging currencies, Indonesia’s rupiah exchange rate depreciated on Friday (28/11). Market players continue to buy US dollars amid falling oil prices. Japan’s yen even fell to a seven-year low against the US dollar after government data showed that household spending declined four percent (y/y) and inflation slowed in the world’s third-largest economy. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 12,204 per US dollar by 15:35 pm local Jakarta time.

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After the currency of Japan (yen) had weakened to its lowest level in seven years against the US dollar on Tuesday (11/11), the currency rebounded today (12/11) as speculation spread that Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is not considering to dissolve parliament and to postpone a planned sales-tax increase. Japan’s currency had gained 0.4 percent to 115.31 per US dollar at 9:02 am London time according to Bloomberg data (yesterday it had touched a seven-year low at 116.10 per US dollar).

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Although Indonesia’s September 2014 inflation (0.27 percent m/m) and appreciating rupiah exchange rate had a positive impact on the performance of Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) on Wednesday (01/10), its gain was limited by declining indices on Wall Street on the previous day as well as Indonesia’s August trade deficit (USD $318.1 million), which resulted in foreign net selling of worth IDR 388 billion of Indonesian stocks. The IHSG climbed 0.06 percent to 5,140.91 points.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.54 percent to IDR 11,822 per US dollar in the past week (based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index). Several internal and external factors influenced the currency’s performance over the past week, such as increased US dollar demand from local Indonesian companies, Bank Indonesia’s decision to leave the BI rate unchanged and the improving US economy. Lastly, the structural current account deficit (triggered by expensive oil imports) remains a problem for investors.

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