Indonesian authorities continue their efforts to ease people’s concerns about the impact of a weak rupiah on the Indonesian economy. In fact, authorities emphasize that a weak rupiah will improve the country’s trade and current account balance as Indonesian exports become more competitive. Over the past week the rupiah depreciated about 1 percent against the US dollar. Since the start of 2015, Indonesia’s rupiah has tumbled 4.4 percent against the greenback, hence being one of the worst performing emerging Asian currencies this year

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As the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated beyond the psychologically-sensitive IDR 13,000 per USD threshold on Wednesday (05/03), both Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro and Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo stated that there is no need for panic as the performance of the rupiah against the US dollar is still in line with the performance of other currencies versus the US dollar. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated 0.28 percent to IDR 13,028 by 13:35 pm local Jakarta time.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.79 percent to IDR 12,932 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Friday (27/02), its weakest level since end 2008, after the country’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) said it would not intervene too much to support the currency. Bank Indonesia said that it has no target level for the rupiah and will not go against the market. For the market these are signals that the central bank is comfortable with a weaker currency as that would improve the trade balance.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated JCI or IHSG) posted a series of consecutive record high closes during the past week, primarily on the central bank’s (Bank Indonesia) decision to cut its key interest rate (BI rate) by 25 basis points to 7.50 percent, investors’ positive outlook on Indonesian companies’ corporate earnings in 2015 and expectation that the Eurozone’s quantitative easing program will offset the negative impact of monetary tightening in the USA.

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One day after the surprise interest rate cut by Indonesia’s central bank, Indonesian stocks surge to a new record level led by interest rate sensitive stocks (such as financial institutions, construction firms and property firms) while the rupiah and government bonds are weakening. Yesterday (17/02), Bank Indonesia shocked markets by lowering its key interest rate (BI rate) and deposit facility rate (Fasbi) by 25 basis points, each, to 7.50 percent and 5.50 percent, respectively. Easing monetary policy is back in fashion among the region’s central banks.

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Indonesia posted a USD $709.4 million trade surplus in January 2015 according to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released on Monday (16/02). Although the surplus is higher than expected and thus has a positive impact on the country’s trade and current account balances, the data also indicated that exports fell 8.09 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $13.30 billion signalling continued weakening global demand for Indonesian exports. Meanwhile, Indonesian imports shrank by 15.6 percent (y/y) to USD $12.59 billion.

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On 15 February 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as the latest current account figures, foreign exchange risks, foreign ownership in the banking sector, biodiesel prices, investments in the cement industry, the Cilamaya port tender, and more.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced on Friday (13/02) that Indonesia’s current account deficit - the broadest measure of trade in goods and services - improved to 2.81 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), or USD $6.2 billion, in the fourth quarter of 2014 (from a revised 2.99 percent of GDP in the preceding quarter). The full-year 2014 deficit amounted to USD $26.2 billion, equivalent to 2.95 percent of GDP from a (revised) deficit of USD $29.1 billion (3.18 percent of GDP) in 2013.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate is depreciating sharply on Thursday (12/02). By 12:10 pm local Jakarta timezone, the currency had fallen 1.11 percent to IDR 12,865 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Market participants have become increasingly concerned about a Greek default or exit from the Eurozone and react by selling emerging market assets in search of safe havens such as the US dollar. Yesterday (11/02), the Eurozone’s finance ministers could not reach agreement on the Greek debt situation.

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Benedict Bingham, Senior Resident Representative for Indonesia at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), expects that the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) will remain committed to the tighter monetary policy in a bid to safeguard the country’s fiscal fundamentals amid external pressures. Apart from sluggish global economic growth, the looming interest rate hike in the USA (later this year) is expected to rock Indonesia as it will trigger capital outflows from emerging markets.

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Indonesia’s current account balance – which measures the flow of goods, services and investment - remains a source of concern. In the second quarter of 2018 Indonesia’s current account deficit widened to USD $8.02 billion or 3.0 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It is the biggest quarterly deficit since Q2-2014 and implies that Indonesia is dependent on foreign capital to fund its deficits. This makes investors nervous and therefore foreign funds rapidly exit Indonesia in times of global turmoil.

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Based on the latest reports - and contrary to earlier plans - the Indonesian government will not postpone the development of 15,200 MW of power projects. Earlier the government said it wanted to delay various power projects in an effort to curtail imports, thus improve the country's current account balance and ease heavy pressures on the rupiah exchange rate.

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Concerns about Indonesia's current account balance increased after Bank Indonesia announced last week that the country's current account deficit widened to USD $8.02 billion, or 3.0 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), in the second quarter of 2018. It is Indonesia's highest quarterly deficit since Q3-2014, thus putting additional pressures on the rupiah exchange rate.

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Indonesia's current account balance - the broadest measure of the country's international trade - showed a deficit of USD $5.5 billion, equivalent to 2.15 percent of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP), in the first quarter of 2018. Compared to Q4-2017 (when the deficit was recorded at USD $6.0 billion, or 2.3 percent of GDP), the current account deficit (CAD) declined.

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Data from the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) show Indonesia's current account deficit widened modestly to USD $2.4 billion (or 1.0 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product, GDP) in the first quarter of 2017. This increase was driven by rising deficits in the oil & gas trade balance and primary income. In the last quarter of 2016 the current account deficit was at (an upward revised) 0.9 percent of GDP. Despite slight widening, Indonesia's current account balance is regarded as being in a healthy state, especially considering the major improvement compared to Q1-2016.

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Bank Indonesia, the central bank of Indonesia, announced on Friday (10/02) that Indonesia's balance of payments surplus reached USD $4.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2016 as the capital and financial accounts' surplus managed to (more than) compensate for the USD $1.8 billion current account deficit (or 0.8 percent of the country's gross domestic product/GDP) in the same quarter. Regarding full-year 2016, Indonesia posted a USD $12.1 billion surplus in its balance of payments, while its current account deficit was equivalent to 1.8 percent of GDP.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects Indonesia's inflation to reach slightly below 1 percent month-to-month (m/m) in July 2016. According to central bank surveys, Indonesia's inflation accelerated in the first and second week of July by 1.18 percent (m/m) and 1.25 percent (m/m), respectively. Juda Agung, Executive Director of Bank Indonesia's Economic and Monetary Policy Department, said inflation tends to peak ahead of - and during - the Idul Fitri holiday (4-8 July) but is set to ease in the third and fourth week.

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Tomorrow (05/02), Statistics Indonesia is scheduled to release Indonesia's official full-year 2015 economic growth figure. Nearly all analysts expect to see a figure that reflects the continuation of slowing economic growth. Southeast Asia's largest economy expanded 5.0 percent in 2014 and this is expected to have eased further to 4.7 percent or 4.8 percent in 2015 on the back of (interrelated) sluggish global growth, low commodity prices, and weak export performance. Domestically, Indonesia has or had to cope with high interest rates and inflation (hence curtailing people's purchasing power and consumption as well as business expansion).

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) relatively high in order to safeguard Indonesia's financial stability in 2016 (instead of seeking accelerated economic growth through a rate cut). Despite easing pressures on inflation and the country's current account balance, Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said that persistent global uncertainty (referring to the looming US Fed Fund Rate hike and China's slowdown) justifies the tight monetary stance.

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Indonesia's current account deficit eased to USD $4.01 billion, or 1.86 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), in the third quarter of 2015. The central bank (Bank Indonesia) said this improvement is particularly caused by a stronger non-oil & gas trade balance. However, Indonesia's capital and financial account surplus declined to USD $1.2 billion, causing the balance of payments deficit to widen to USD $4.6 billion from USD $2.9 billion in the preceding quarter.

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