Stakeholders in Indonesia’s cigarette manufacturing industry were not amused when the Indonesian government announced its plans to raise minimum prices of cigarettes and to increase the excise tax on tobacco products per 1 January 2020. Reportedly, the central government plans to raise the excise tax on tobacco products by an average of 23 percent, which will then raise the minimum price of cigarettes across categories by an average of 35 percent.

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Although Indonesia's cigarette industry is considered to be a sunset industry (which refers to an industry that has passed its peak or boom periods) there are two factors that may somewhat pause the industry's decline on the short and middle-long term.

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Indonesia's tobacco production, prepared from the leaves of the tobacco plant, heavily depends on weather conditions. If weather conditions are normal in 2018, then Indonesia should be able to produce up to 200,000 tons of tobacco. However, if there occurs unconducive weather (a prolonged rainy season or short dry season), then it is difficult to predict Indonesia's 2018 tobacco production.

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Across the world the use of the electronic cigarette (e-cigarette), a habit that is often called vaping, has risen significantly since the introduction of the modern e-cigarette in 2003 (in China). Also in Indonesia more and more people are seen using the e-cigarette, a device that tries to create the sensation of tobacco smoking.

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The Industry Ministry of Indonesia still targets to see some limited growth in Indonesia's cigarette industry this year despite another excise tax hike per January 2018. Abdul Rochim, Director of Food & Beverages, Tobacco Products, and Refreshments at the Industry Ministry, acknowledged that Indonesia's cigarette industry has been under pressure in recent years but remains optimistic that it will not lead to another declining performance in Indonesia's cigarette industry in 2018.

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Indonesia will not only raise excise duties on tobacco products per January 2018 but it was also announced that the import tariff on tobacco will be raised as well. Although the exact amount remains unknown, Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Darmin Nasution confirmed the step would be taken in 2018.

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At the start of 2018 the Indonesian government will again raise the excise tax on tobacco products (including cigarettes) in Indonesia. The tax will be raised by an average of 10.04 percent, effective per 1 January 2018. Traditionally, the government hikes the tobacco excise tax once per year in search of more tax revenue and to discourage consumption of tobacco products.

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Indonesian cigarette manufacturer Gudang Garam will raise prices of its tobacco products if the central government goes ahead with its plans to introduce another cigarette excise tax hike at the start of 2018. This statement was made by Gudang Garam Director Istata Siddharta.

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Not only looming higher excise taxes plague Indonesia's clove farmers but also bad weather is drastically curbing clove production in 2017. I Ketut Budiman, Secretary General of the Indonesian Clove Farmers Association (APCI), said clove production may only reach 11,000 tons this year. This would be a disastrous harvest. Under normal circumstances Indonesia produces more than 100,000 tons of clove in one year.

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Market share of HM Sampoerna, Indonesia's largest tobacco company, has declined. In the first half of 2017 the company's market share fell to 32.9 percent from 33.4 percent in the same period one year ago. Falling market share is related to the lower production volume of the company as well as falling cigarette consumption of the Indonesian people. HM Sampoerna is controlled by global cigarette giant Philip Morris International.

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Indonesia's largest company by market capitalization is still HM Sampoerna, the country's largest tobacco company. The company has been the top company in Indonesia since March 2013 when it replaced Astra International, Indonesia's largest diversified conglomerate, on the top spot. Astra had been Indonesia's largest company since 2010. Currently, the third-largest company in terms of market capitalization is Unilever Indonesia. Unilever, which is Indonesia’s largest consumer goods producer, jumped four places in the ranking since late 2012.

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