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For the first time since early November 2020 – which is around five months ago – the Indonesian rupiah depreciated beyond the IDR 14,500 per US dollar level. It is a threshold that makes Indonesians a bit concerned.
The Indonesian rupiah had a good start of the month in November 2020. Based on Bank Indonesia’s Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor), the rupiah appreciated 3.4 percent against the US dollar in the first two trading weeks of November 2020.
The Finance Ministry of Indonesia collected IDR 5.17 trillion (approx. USD $359 million) worth of Islamic bonds (in Indonesian: Surat Berharga Syariah Negara, or SBSN) through an auction on Tuesday (07/08), well above the indicative target of IDR 4 trillion (approx. USD $278 million). Islamic bonds are also known as Sukuk.
Sarana Multi Infrastruktur (SMI), a fully state-owned infrastructure financing company that plays an active role in facilitating infrastructure development across Indonesia, became the first corporate entity to issue green bonds in Indonesia. The green bonds were listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange on Tuesday morning (10/07).
Indonesian assets remain under pressure as the US 10-year treasury yield rose to 3.095 percent, touching a near seven-year peak. As a result the US dollar is at a five-month high. While the US dollar rally stalled last week after the release of weaker-than-expected US inflation (April data), the greenback's performance was lifted this week on the back of strong US consumer spending figures. It is having a big impact in Asia.
On Friday (27/04) Indonesian stocks and the rupiah were stable, a performance that is in stark contrast to that of the past week. Capital outflows, the direct consequence of US treasury yields climbing beyond 3 percent, are also negative for Indonesian bond yields. Indonesia's 10-year state bond yield (FR0064) rose to 7.130 percent on Thursday (26/04), its highest position since July 2017 and jumping from 6.995 percent on the preceding day.
The recent decision of Moody's Investors Service to upgrade Indonesia's sovereign credit rating to Baa2 (stable outlook) brought a wave of fresh air to Indonesia's capital markets at a time when concerns over a global trade war rattled global markets. Moody's cited credible and effective fiscal and monetary policies as key reasons for the rating upgrade.
The government of Indonesia raised USD $1.25 billion through the issuance of global "green" bonds, hence becoming the first Asian country to issue this type of bond. With the proceeds from the green bond the Indonesian government will fund projects that have positive environmental and/or climate benefits.
Puspita Anggraeni, Corporate Secretary at state-controlled construction company Wijaya Karya, said the company's rupiah-denominated global bonds (called "komodo bonds", in reference to the komodo dragon found on several islands in the eastern part of Indonesia) proved popular among investors.
Indonesia's state-owned utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) plans to issue rupiah-denominated global bonds (known as 'komodo bonds', 'nasi goreng' bonds or 'rendang' bonds) in the second quarter of 2018. PLN targets to raise up to USD $2 billion through the bond issuance. Proceeds will be used for financing its part in Indonesia's 35,000 MW power development program as well as for debt payments.
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The government of Indonesia plans to sell another series of sharia-compliant government retail bonds (in Indonesian: Sukuk Negara Ritel, abbreviated Sukri). The offering period is planned for 4 February - 2 March 2017. However, Suminto, Islamic Financing Director at the Budget Financing and Risk Management Office within Indonesia's Finance Ministry, did not inform about the indicative target for this issuance. He only informed local media that the target of the bond issuance will be in line with the government's financing needs and existing market conditions.
The Indonesian government sold €3 billion worth of euro-denominated bonds (Surat Utang Negara, or SUN) on Tuesday (07/06) consisting of €1.5 billion of 7-year tenure bonds with a yield of 2.772 percent and €1.5 billion of 12-year tenure bonds with a yield of 3.906 percent. Combined, the issuance was oversubscribed 1.79 times with a total book order for the dual-trance bonds at €8.36 billion. Robert Pakpahan, Director General of Financing and Risk Management at Indonesia's Finance Ministry, said funds will be used to finance the 2016 budget deficit, which is expected to widen to 2.48 percent of GDP.
One of Indonesia's long standing companies - and also one of the most controversial ones in Indonesia - Bakrie & Brothers plans to offer part of its shares to creditors Mitsubishi Corporation, Glencore International, and Eurofa Capital Investment in a debt for equity swap. This plan is part of the company's efforts to restructure USD $453 million worth of debt through mandatory convertible bonds. Indra Ginting, Chief Investor Relation Officer at Bakrie & Brothers, confirmed the company owes Mitsubishi USD $150 million, Glencore USD $200 million, and Eurofa Capital USD $103 million.
In the past two weeks, two of the big international credit rating agencies released new reports about Indonesia's fiscal situation. Both agencies affirmed Indonesia's sovereign debt rating: Fitch Ratings kept Indonesia at BBB-/stable (investment grade class) and Standard & Poor's (S&P) maintained Indonesia at BB+/positive (highest junk level, one notch below investment grade). S&P's decision to keep Indonesia within the junk level category was met with disappointment among investors and Indonesian government officials but perhaps not that surprisingly.
There is strong demand for Indonesia's sharia-compliant government retail bonds (in Indonesian: Sukuk Negara Ritel, abbreviated Sukri). Since the launch of series SR-008 on Friday (19/02), a number of sales agents have run out of quota. These financial institutions now request additional quota from the government. The three year SR-008 series carries a fixed coupon of 8.3 percent per year (and is tradable on the secondary market). The government of Indonesia targets to collect up to IDR 30 trillion (approx. USD $2.2 billion) in funds from the issuance. Sukri bonds are only available to Indonesian citizens.
Some concern has been raised about the inflow of foreign 'hot money' into Indonesia amid accomodative monetary policies conducted by central banks of the Eurozone and Japan (the latter implemented negative interest rates in late-January). The world's carry traders are now seeking cheap funds in advanced economies and invest these funds in assets that have attractive returns such as Indonesian bonds and stocks. Indonesia's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) is still relatively high at 7.0 percent after a 25 basis points cut at Bank Indonesia's February 2016 policy meeting.
American financial services company Standard & Poor's warns that defaults by Indonesian companies are a serious threat over the next 18 months given their eroded balance sheets amid the country's current economic slowdown. The warning came after Indonesian mobile phone retailer Trikomsel Oke announced plans to restructure about USD $155 million worth of debt as it may not be capable to meet obligations indefinitely.
Indonesian food company Tiga Pilar Sejahtera, a market leader in the country’s dry vermicelli and dry noodles segments, considers to acquire two food companies in Malaysia and Vietnam in a move to expand business beyond the Indonesian borders. Sjambiri Lioe, Finance Director at Tiga Pilar Sejahtera, said that the company (which is listed under ticker symbol AISA) has set aside a total of USD $80 million for this acquisition. He refrained from mentioning the names of the targeted Asian companies.
In an attempt to strengthen the domestic investor base and to meet financing of the Revised 2014 State Budget (APBN-P 2014), the government offers Indonesian Retail Government Bonds (Obligasi Negara Ritel Indonesia, abbreviated ORI) again. This is the 11th time, the government issues ORI bonds since its first launch in 2006. The ORI series ORI011 is offered in the period 1-16 October 2014 with a coupon rate of 8.5 percent and a tenor of three years. The minimum allowed order is IDR 5 million and the maximum IDR 3 billion per individual.
US Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen reminded global investors to prepare for a sooner-than-expected US interest rate hike (Fed Funds Rate, FFR) provided that the economy of the USA - the world’s largest economy - continues its improving trend. In fact, speculation has emerged that the FFR will be raised before the end of 2014 although Yellen stated more than once that the ‘close-to-zero’ interest rate environment would be maintained for a considerable period after the US bond-buying program (quantitative easing) has ended.
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