According to the latest data of Indonesia's Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), growth of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Indonesia in the first quarter of 2017 was recorded at a modest pace of 0.9 percent year-to-year (y/y) to IDR 97 trillion, sliding further from a growth pace of 2.1 percent (y/y) in the preceding quarter. Declining FDI is attributed to the ethnic and religious tensions in Jakarta (surrounding the 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial election) as well as persistent global uncertainties. The FDI data exclude investment in the country's banking and the oil & gas sector.

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The value of export products originating from Indonesia's furniture and handicraft industry fell 16 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $1.6 billion in 2016 from USD $1.9 billion in the preceding year. The decline is attributed to the departure of several big furniture factories from Indonesia to Vietnam due to Indonesia's high logistics costs, higher minimum wages and Indonesian workers' low productivity. One example is America-based furniture manufacturer Maitland Smith.

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Investment in Indonesia is expected to rise in 2017. This covers both direct investment and portfolio investment. Domestic direct investment (DDI) should grow on the back of Indonesia's low interest rate environment (making it cheaper for domestic investors to purchase credit) as well as higher capital injections (from the state budget) into Indonesia's state-owned enterprises. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment (FDI) is expected to rise on the back of Indonesia's accelerating economic growth and government reforms. Both FDI and DDI should also rise amid rising commodity prices.

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Not the lack of (soft and hard) infrastructure development in Indonesia, or the lack of quality human resources, nor corruption or protectionism but the difficulty to obtain the necessary permits from the local governments are the biggest obstacle to investment and business in Indonesia according to a survey that was conducted by the Regional Autonomy Watch (KPPOD) in the 32 regional capital cities across the Archipelago.

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Investment realization in Indonesia's capital city of Jakarta fell to IDR 51.2 trillion (approx. USD $3.8 billion) in full-year 2016, down from IDR 55 trillion worth of investment in the preceding year. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Jakarta was recorded at IDR 41.5 trillion in 2016, while domestic direct investment (DDI) reached IDR 9.7 trillion. What explains this overall decline of investment in Jakarta?

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The Indonesian government - through its Finance Ministry - cut all ties with US multinational banking and financial services firm JP Morgan Chase after the latter released a report that allegedly "disturbs Indonesia's financial stability". In November 2016 JP Morgan's emerging markets equity strategists double downgraded Indonesia from overweight to underweight without elaborating on the exact motives. The report only stated that emerging markets' risk premiums are plagued by the rising yield of the benchmark US 10-year treasuries.

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The business environment in Indonesia needs political stability as well as a conducive investment climate to grow. However, if there exists a high degree of social unrest then the central government can offer as many incentives as it wants but entrepreneurs will be hesitant to engage in investment and business expansion. Currently, there is quite some unrest in the capital city of Jakarta. Ever since a manipulated video of Jakarta Governor Basuki Cahaya Purnama (Ahok) surfaced in which he allegedly insulted Islam, there has been outrage among Islamic hardliners. This brings economic costs.

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Indonesia's improving ranking in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index shows that the government's reform efforts have had a positive effect. However, there is no time for complacency as most industries in Indonesia continue to lack competitiveness compared to regional counterparts, while many entrepreneurs in Indonesia continue to complain about (the lack of) legal certainty as well as (the lack of) good coordination and cooperation between Indonesia's central and regional governments (in terms of policy implementation).

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Turnover in one of the most lucrative industries within the Indonesian economy - the processed food and beverage industry - is expected to reach IDR 540 trillion (approx. USD $40.9 billion) in the second half of 2016, up roughly 8 percent from realization in the same period one year earlier. This solid growth is supported by Indonesia's improving purchasing power amid the accelerating economy and higher commodity prices, and growing output of the nation's processed food and beverage industry.

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The government of Indonesia may succesfully curb the nation's housing backlog figure to 6.8 million units by 2019. Providing adequate housing for the poorer segments of Indonesian society is one of the key tasks of the Indonesian government (for example through its 'one million houses' [per year] program). In 2015 Indonesia's housing backlog declined by 16 percent (y/y) to 11.4 million units according to the data from Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS). With enough effort of the government and private sector the figure should continue to drop in the foreseeable future.

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There is few interest from the private sector to participate in Indonesia's oil & gas block tenders. Besides Indonesia's unconducive investment climate (that includes weak government management, bureaucracy, an unclear regulatory framework and legal uncertainty), low global petroleum prices have also managed to curb investors' enthusiasm. In a bid to entice private investors the Indonesian government has decided to change the concept for oil & gas tenders in 2016 from a fixed revenue split to an open bid split scheme.

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It is estimated that Indonesia will need some USD $450 billion in funds to finance the government's infrastructure development plans for the 2015-2019 period. However, through the state budgets the government can only deliver USD $230 billion, or roughly 50 percent of required funds. The remainder should originate from the private sector (30 percent of total funds) and state-controlled enterprises (20 percent). However, is it likely that the private sector (both foreign and domestic) is to come up with USD $141 billion for investment in infrastructure up to 2019?

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Infrastructure development and deregulation are the two main recipes used by the Indonesian government - under the leadership of Joko Widodo - to attract investment. By making it easier and cheaper to obtain permits and by providing better infrastructure (implying investors need to invest less in additional infrastructure facilities while logistic costs ease) Indonesia's investment climate improves. As such, the ease of doing business in Indonesia will improve accordingly. However, good coordination and cooperation between the central and regional governments is required.

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In order to improve communication and avoid language barriers, the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) plans to open a special service desk for Chinese investors. BKPM, the investment services agency of the Indonesian government, sees language barriers between Chinese investors and Indonesians as a major obstacle; one that blocks foreign direct investment from China into Indonesia. The new desk, specifically for investment from China or Hong Kong, should improve communication hence improving realization of China's investment plans.

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The government of Indonesia unveiled the second installment of its September economic policy package on Tuesday (29/09). The package is introduced in an attempt to boost economic growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy and defend the ailing rupiah. Indonesia’s GDP growth slowed to a six-year low of 4.67 percent (y/y) in Q2-2015, while the rupiah has depreciated to a 17-year low against the US dollar. Capital outflows from Indonesia are the result of monetary tightening in the USA, low commodity prices and sluggish global economic growth (particularly China’s hard landing).

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Government-led infrastructure development is regarded by most analysts and policymakers as the key to overcome Indonesia’s slowing economic growth as infrastructure development will cause a multiplier effect in the economy (triggering growth in other industries such as cement and property while job availability grows accordingly). In the second quarter of 2015, Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed to 4.67 percent (y/y), a six-year low.

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The World Investment Report 2015 states that inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) into Indonesia grew 20 percent (y/y) to USD $23 billion in 2014. As such FDI growth in Indonesia outpaced FDI growth recorded in Singapore (+4 percent y/y to USD $68 billion) and Vietnam (+3 percent to USD $9.2 billion), causing optimism that Indonesia - Southeast Asia's largest economy - will continue to form a lucrative investment destination in the Asian continent for foreign investors in the years ahead.

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Indonesia is not the easiest place to invest for foreign investors. This is reflected by the World Bank's Doing Business 2014 index in which Indonesia ranks 120th. In a business forum, held last week in Beijing, Chinese businessmen expressed a number of matters that blocked or seriously delayed their investments in Indonesia. For Indonesia (both domestic and foreign) investment realization, particularly in infrastructure, is important as investments is considered the main driver for the country’s economic growth in 2016.

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Investment realization in Indonesia in the first quarter of 2015 totaled IDR 124.6 trillion (USD $9.7 billion), up 16.9 percent from the same quarter last year. Domestic direct investment climbed 22.8 percent (y/y) to IDR 42.5 trillion, while foreign direct investment (FDI) rose 14 percent (y/y) to IDR 82.1 trillion in Q1-2015. These data, released by the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) on Tuesday (28/04), brought some positivity in Indonesia after listed companies’ weak Q1-2015 financial results led to concern and capital outflow.

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) released a report today (24/03) in which it discusses recent economic developments in Indonesia. According to the report, Indonesia’s economic growth is projected to accelerate over the two years ahead provided that the Indonesian government continues to implement structural policy reforms. Such reforms - which include the acceleration of infrastructure development, reduction of logistical costs, and enhancing budget implementation - should lead to an improvement of the investment climate.

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