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Today's Headlines Rainfall
Parts of Indonesia's capital city of Jakarta as well as parts of several satellite cities around the capital are plagued by floods, resulting in thousands of evacuees. Anies Baswedan, Governor of Jakarta, said approximately 6,500 people have been displaced by floods in parts of South and East Jakarta, such as Rawajati and Kampung Melayu.
Heavy rains during the rainy season - in combination with insufficient drainage infrastructure - caused massive flooding across Indonesia's capital city of Jakarta. The National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) reported that there are 54 areas in Jakarta, mostly in the eastern part of the city, that were flooded on Tuesday (21/02). At some locations in East Jakarta's Cipinang Melayu the water level was even as high as 150 centimeters.
Cement consumption in Indonesia fell to 5.27 million tons in January 2017, down 2.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) from the same month one year ago. This decline was blamed on the intense rainfall in the nation's regions that managed to obstruct progress with various projects. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said the decline in cement demand was seen in nearly all regions, including Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, and Nusa Tenggara.
Inflation is under control in Indonesia. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesian inflation eased to 3.60 percent (y/y) in April 2016, well within the target range of the nation's central bank and central government. However, inflationary pressures in Southeast Asia's largest economy may rise in the second half of the year because there is a big chance that the El Nino weather phenomenon is to be followed by the La Nina weather phenomenon. Both weather phenomenons impact heavily on Indonesia's agricultural output.
The Provincial Disaster Management Agency (BPBD) of Jakarta predicts that Indonesia's capital city may be plagued by a big flood in February 2016. The city has been seeing more rainfall in recent weeks and rainfall is expected to intensify and to reach its peak in February according to both the BPBD and the Indonesian Agency for Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysics (BMKG). In late January and February rainfall may be more than 100 millimeter per day but there are also estimates that rainfall can rise up to 380 millimeters in one day. This could cause a major flood.
According to the latest survey of Bank Indonesia (the central bank of Indonesia), the country’s January retail sales accelerated 10.4 percent year-on-year (y/y), up from the 3.3 percentage point growth pace (y/y) in the preceding month. Retail sales in the first month of the year in Southeast Asia’s largest economy accelerated because of higher sales of information & communication equipment (+29.9 percent y/y) as well as food, beverages & tobacco products (+15.1 percent y/y).
Domestic cement sales in Indonesia fell 2.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 4.5 million tons in January 2015. A fall in cement consumption was detected in almost all regions of Indonesia, possible related to heavy rains that have plagued several areas in January and led to a slowdown in construction and infrastructure projects in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Widodo Santoso, Head of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said that the largest declines in cement sales in the first month of 2015 were recorded in Kalimantan and Sumatra.
Sentiments on the global coffee market have turned around completely in 2014 as severe drought in Brazil in combination with high rainfall in Indonesia are expected to result in weak harvests, thereby reducing global coffee production and stockpiles, causing a significant price increase since mid January 2014. Both countries are vital for global coffee production. Brazil accounts for about half of the world's total arabica production, while Indonesia is a significant robusta-type producer.
Prices of coffee have surged 24 percent in 2014 as Brazil experienced the warmest January ever and the least rainfall in 20 years. Being a major arabica bean producer, Brazil's weather conditions particularly influence the arabica coffee price. The arabica coffee price has jumped 26 percent in seven trading sessions, the highest level since July 2000. Meanwhile, weather forecasts do not seem to indicate the arrival of a sufficient amount of rainfall in the remainder of February and March before the dry season kicks in in April.
Today (03/02), Statistics Indonesia released Indonesia's official inflation rate for January 2014. The monthly inflation rate accelerated to 1.07 percent, which is higher than most analysts had forecast. The main contributor to January's inflation were higher food products prices. Amid high rainfall and severe floods in several parts of Indonesia, disrupted logistics distribution impacted on these prices. The depreciating rupiah exchange rate is also a factor that makes retailers adjust their prices. Annual inflation rate eased from 8.38 percent to 8.22 percent.
Latest Columns Rainfall
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology is increasingly convinced that the world needs to prepare for a new El Niño cycle. According to the institution, the impact of this new cycle will be felt starting from July 2014 and may continue through the winter. Also the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and the US Climate Prediction Center stated that chances of a new El Niño cycle in 2014 are becoming higher, although it is too early to provide an indication of this year's strength of the weather phenomenon.
The pace of Indonesia's monthly January inflation rate was higher in 2014 than in the same month during the past five years. This relatively high inflation rate this year, recorded at 1.07 percent, was caused by severe rainfall and floods in several parts of Indonesia (particularly in the cities of Jakarta and Manado) amid the peak of the rainy season. These weather-related circumstances impacted on prices of food products as distribution channels were disrupted, thus giving rise to increasing prices. Annual inflation, however, slightly eased.
Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) continued its upward movement on Wednesday (29/01) when it gained 1.74 percent to finish at 4,417.35. The IHSG was supported by positive American and European stock indices on the previous day and by strengthening emerging market currencies that felt the impact of higher interest rates in India and Turkey. In Indonesia, consumer, infrastructure and plantation stocks were popular as the current high rainfall is regarded as bringing a positive impact on these sectors.
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