On 9 August 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic subjects such as an analysis of the recent performance of the rupiah, an analysis of Q2-2015 GDP growth, updates on inflation as well as manufacturing, and unemployment in Indonesia.

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As Indonesia’s economic growth continued to slow in the second quarter of 2015, the Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo) warned of increasing unemployment in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Each 1 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth can generate between 200,000 and 300,000 new jobs in Indonesia. As such, when economic growth slows, society misses out on new jobs and with around two million Indonesians entering the labor force each year, job generation is an important task of the government.

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Inflation in Indonesia accelerated more than expected in July 2015. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesian inflation rose 0.93 percent (m/m) in July, primarily due to higher food and transportation costs caused by the Ramadan month and Idul Fitri celebrations. During this month, the people traditionally increase consumer spending (triggering higher food prices) and millions of people travel back to their places of origin for the Idul Fitri festivities (triggering higher transportation costs).

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The pace of economic growth of Indonesia is expected to remain below five percent year-on-year (y/y) in the second quarter of 2015 according to Reuters poll involving 22 analysts. In fact, the poll shows that further slowing economic growth is expected. In the first quarter of 2015, Indonesia’s economic growth came at 4.71 percent (y/y), the weakest growth pace in six years. According to the poll, analysts see a gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 4.61 percent (y/y) in the second quarter of 2015.

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Bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) memprediksi melihat inflasi Indonesia di bulan Juli dalam cakupan 0,46 - 0,60% pada basis month-on-month (m/m). Inflasi di Indonesia selalu memuncak pada bulan Juni, Juli dan Agustus karena peningkatan belanja konsumen karena perayaan Ramadan & Idul Fitri dan juga awal tahun ajaran baru. Pada awal bulan ini, Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) Agus Martowadojo mengatakan bahwa inflasi tahunan diprediksi untuk turun di bawah 7% di bulan Juli, dari 7,26% (y/y) di bulan Juni.

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Seperti yang telah diprediksi, Bank Indonesia tidak mengubah tingkat suku bunganya pada pertemuan Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) pada hari Selasa (14/07). BI rate yang menjadi acuan dipertahankan pada 7,50%, sementara fasilitas simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi) dan suku bunga lending facility dipertahankan masing-masing pada 5,50% dan 8,00%. Bank Indonesia meyakini bahwa kondisi tingkat suku bunga saat ini sejalan dengan upaya untuk menurunkan inflasi dan juga mendukung rupiah yang melemah menjelang perkiraan pengetatan moneter lebih lanjut oleh Amerika Serikat (AS) di kemudian hari pada tahun ini.

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Kebanyakan analis setuju bahwa Bank Indonesia akan mempertahankan tingkat suku bunga yang sama dalam pertemuan Dewan Gubernur yang dijadwalkan untuk dilaksanakan pada hari Selasa 14 Juli 2015. Bank sentral Indonesia dipediksi akan mempertahankan suku bunga acuannya (BI rate) pada 7,50%, fasilitas simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi) pada 5,50%, dan suku bunga lending facility pada 8,00% karena tingkat inflasi Indonesia telah meningkat cepat baru-baru ini sementara rupiah mengalami tekanan karena faktor-faktor eksternal.

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Sejalan dengan perkiraan dan tren sejarah, penjualan mobil di Indonesia naik - dalam basis bulanan - di Juni 2015 menjelang perayaan Idul Fitri (yang menandai akhir bulan puasa umat Muslim). Penjualan mobil di Indonesia biasanya naik menjelang Idul Fitri, sebuah tradisi yang melibatkan perpindahan sementara jutaan orang Indonesia dari kota-kota ke daerah asal mereka. Sebelum perjalanan ke tempat asal, sebagian dari para pemudik ini membeli mobil baru, keputusan yang sering dipengaruhi oleh kampanye promosi dan program diskon.

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Pemerintah Indonesia merevisi target pertumbuhan perekonomian 2015. Sofyan Djalil, Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian, menyatakan pada hari Jumat (03/07) bahwa target Pemerintah yang sebelumnya 5,8% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) terlalu tinggi dan tidak realistis mengingat konteks perekonomian internasional dan domestik yang tidak kondusif. Pemerintah merevisi turun target pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) 2015 menjadi 5,2% (y/y). Djalil mengatakan bahwa perekonomian global diproyeksi untuk bertumbuh 2,9% (y/y) di 2015 dari perkiraan awal 3,5% (y/y).

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Survei terakhir Bank Indonesia menunjukkan bahwa keyakinan konsumen di Indonesia jatuh pada bulan Juni karena kekuatiran mengenai menurunnya ketersediaan lapangan pekerjaan serta penurunan pendapatan dan aktivitas bisnis. Bulan Juni, Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen bank sentral jatuh 1,5 poin menjadi 111,3. Sejauh ini di tahun ini, keyakinan konsumen Indonesia hanya naik di bulan Mei. Di bulan lainnya, indeks ini jatuh. Indeks ini dibuat berdasarkan pada sampel di 4.600 rumah tangga di 18 kota besar di Indonesia (skor 100 membatasi optimisme dari pesimisme).

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Positive American and European stock indices on Tuesday (14/05/13) made a good impact on Asian stock indices on Wednesday (15/05/13), including Indonesia's main index (IHSG) which is heading towards the 5,100 points line. Although many foreign investors were eager to sell their Indonesian assets, support from other Asian stock indices kept the IHSG within the green zone. At the end of the trading day, it stood at 5,089.88 points, a 0.16 percent rise.

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One of the sectors that showed exceptional growth in 2012 was Indonesia's property market. On average, net profit of companies engaged in Indonesia's property sector grew 68 percent during the full year. Of the 45 property companies that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), 26 posted net profit growth that exceeded 50 percent. But the success story did not end there. In the first quarter of 2013, the property sectoral index of the IDX continued its fast pace by rising over 41 percent.

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The release of Indonesia's April deflation figure (0.10%) and orderly May Day demonstrations provided a good environment for investors to continue purchasing Indonesian stocks (despite uncertainty about Indonesia's subsidized fuel policy. Moreover, positive Asian stock indices - in combination with positive European openings on Wednesday - made the Indonesia Stock Index (IHSG) rise to a new record level of 5,060.92 points on Wednesday (01/05/13), a 0.53 percent gain.

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Even though American and European stock indices were positive on Monday (in fact S&P 500 set a new record) it did not impact directly on the performance of Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) on Tuesday (30/04/13). In the first session, the IHSG's peak at 5,014 points was only short-lived and quickly lowered again. In the second session, however, the index started to show more solid growth (despite the ongoing uncertainty about Indonesia's subsidized fuel price) as Asian stock markets were mostly up.

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After two consecutive days of decline, the Jakarta Composite index (IHSG) had no intention to continue its fall. Indonesia's main index was able to rise 0.43 percent to 4,999.75 points on Monday 29 April 2013. Stocks that had been weakening in recent days were popular among investors. Moreover, both Asian stock indices and foreign net purchases of Indonesian stocks supported Indonesia's index, although it fell short of reaching the psychological boundary of 5,000 points.

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One piece of evidence of international confidence in the Indonesian economy is the steady upgrades in the country's credit ratings by international financial services companies such as Standard & Poor's, Fitch Ratings and Moody's. In late 2011, Fitch Ratings was the first to reinstate Indonesia's investment grade status after a 14-year hiatus. In January 2012, Moody’s followed suit citing the country’s resilient economy. S&P may follow soon, depending on the fuel price hike issue.

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Last week Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was mixed with a weakening trend. The index lost 19.9 points, equivalent to 0.40 percent of its value. During the last month, the index consolidated within the range of 4,800 and 5,030 points. Foreign funds continued to pour in and trade volume remained high although below average trade in the last three weeks. In fact, our technical indicators are showing signs that Indonesia's main stock index has become saturated.

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On Friday's trading day, the Indonesia Stock Index (IHSG) started in an upward direction. However, as it felt the impact of European stock indices, that mostly opened lower, the IHSG weakened 0.32 percent to 4,978.51 points. Moreover, most other Asian indices were down (except for Hong Kong's HSI) and thus contributed to the IHSG's fall. Market participants also seem to fear the annual 'May Cycle' of the IHSG, which involves the traditional large-scale selling of IHSG stocks.

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The heavily subsidized fuel price of Indonesia is likely to be raised next month according to Indonesian media sources. Various high officials, including Economic minister Hatta Rajasa, discussed the possibility to raise the fuel price from IDR 4,500 (USD $0.46) to IDR 6,500 (USD $0.67) per liter starting from May. This increase will only apply to private passenger cars, and not to motorcycles and public transportation. However, president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has not made up his mind yet.

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Indonesia's main stock index, the IHSG, continued its rally on Wednesday 17 April due to increased US monthly Housing Starts, decreased US inflation, as well as financial results of companies that indicated revenues and net profits exceeded expectations. Moreover, the IMF upgraded its outlook for East Asia's economic, which made investors buy stocks. Within Indonesia, there was enthusiasm regarding Q1-2013 corporate results and dividend payouts, which offset uncertainties about the new fuel policy.

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