As Indonesia's oil production is expected to rise while a new oil refinery in Tuban (East Java) has started to come online, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources targets to stop imports of diesel fuel altogether and cut imports of gasoline fuel by 30 percent in 2016. The refinery in Tuban is owned by Trans Pacific Petrochemical Indotama, which was recently acquired by Indonesia's state-owned energy company Pertamina.

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After a seven-year hiatus Indonesia will rejoin the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as a full member in December 2015. A statement on the website of the OPEC states that all members approved reactivating Indonesia’s full membership in the organization. At the next OPEC meeting, scheduled for 4 December 2015 in Vienna (Austria), Indonesia will be formally admitted back into the OPEC.

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Indonesia diprediksi akan memproduksi antara 800.000 sampai 830,000 barel minyak per hari (barrels of oil per day/bpd) di 2016. Cakupan target ini disetujui dalam sebuah rapat kerja antara Komisi VII (yang mengawasi sektor energi negara) dari Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat (DPR) dan Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM). Rapat ini diadakan dalam konteks pertimbangan mengenai Anggaran Perencanaan Belanja Negara (APBN) 2016. Sejauh ini di tahun ini, hasil produksi minyak mentah Indonesia berjumlah rata-rata 802.046 bpd (dalam basis bulanan). Meskipun begitu, permintaan domestik berjumlah 1,43 juta bpd.

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Global oil prices fell on Wednesday - with US oil declining to a new four-year low - amid expectation that the OPEC will not take significant action in response to the declining oil prices. The price of benchmark US light sweet crude or West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery in January fell USD $0.40 to USD $73.69 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest price level since September 2010, while the European benchmark, Brent crude for January delivery fell USD $0.58 to USD $77.75 a barrel in London trading.

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International credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service is positive about the subsidized fuel price hike that was conducted by the government of Indonesia on Monday (17/11) as it shows commitment of the government to implement reforms that support the strengthening of the economy, such as curbing Indonesia’s fiscal and current account deficits. Moody’s estimates that these developments are positive for the country’s sovereign rating (now at Baa3/stable) as well as for state-owned energy firm Pertamina (Baa3/stable).

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Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Bank Indonesia, is highly supportive of president-elect Joko Widodo’s plan to increase prices of subsidized fuels before the end of the year as this move would help to diminish the country’s structural current account deficit as well as improve the trade balance. Widodo, who will assume office on 20 October 2014, is expected to raise prices of subsidized fuels by between IDR 1,000 and 3,000 per liter, and relocate state funds to social and economic development.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate came close to the IDR 12,000 per US dollar mark on Wednesday (18/06). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s currency depreciated 0.87 percent to IDR 11,997 per US dollar. Bank Indonesia stated that the weakening is due to violence in northern Iraq (giving rise to a higher oil price which subsequently pressures the financial balance sheets of countries that import oil, such as Indonesia), and concern about results of the Federal Reserve meeting (17-18 June 2014).

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Indonesia's Finance Minister Chatib Basri expects that Indonesia's economic growth in 2013 will reach 5.7 percent, significantly below the government's initial target of 6.3 percent. Basri announced his expectation at the government's economic evaluation and projection meeting. According to Basri, Indonesia's economic growth is stable, despite its slowing trend. Among the G20 member countries, only China will post higher GDP growth (7.8 percent up to the third quarter). Indonesia's inflation rate is expected to reach 8.5 percent (yoy) at the year-end.

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Indonesia's biodiesel consumption has risen considerably during the last three months after the Indonesian government raised the mandatory amount of palm oil (fatty acid methyl ester) blended in biodiesel from 7.5 percent to 10 percent. For power plants that use biodiesel the amount has been increased to 20 percent. Biodiesel consumption in Southeast Asia's largest economy jumped from 57,871 kiloliters in August 2013 to 101,857 kiloliters in September and to 116,281 kiloliters in October.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced that Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves have increased slightly in September 2013. On 30 September, the reserves stood at USD $95.67 billion, a 2.88 percent increase from USD $92.99 billion one month earlier. The reserves in September are equivalent to 5.4 months of imports, or 5.2 months when servicing of government external debt is included. Recent US dollar demand for the import of oil is what put pressure on the reserves.

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Fuel demand in Indonesia already reached 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd). However, oil refining capacity only stands around 1.1 million bpd, implying that 43 percent of fuel consumption in Indonesia needs to be imported from abroad. Oil refining capacity today is roughly the same as it was 15 years ago, meaning that there has been limited progress in development of Indonesia's downstream oil industry. Without adding refining capacity, Indonesia is on track to become the world's largest fuel importer within the next decade.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects that the country’s current account deficit will only ease slightly in 2014. Last year, the deficit reached 3.3 percent of Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP), a level which is generally considered unsustainable and leads to reduced investor confidence. Countries that have to cope with a wide current account deficit, such as Indonesia and India, are highly vulnerable in times of global shocks as investors will quickly withdraw their investments from assets in these countries.

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Governor of the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia), Agus Martowardojo, commented on Indonesia’s troubled current account balance on Tuesday (12/08). Martowardojo said that he expects the balance to improve in 2014. Last year, the current account deficit of Southeast Asia’s largest economy reached 3.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP); a level which is generally regarded as unsustainable. This year, the deficit may ease to 3 percent of GDP. For investors the current account balance is an important matter. Why?

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.62 percent to IDR 11,893 per US dollar on Tuesday (17/06), a four-month low. The main reason behind this poor performance is increased concern about the impact of violence in northern Iraq - namely higher global oil prices - on Indonesia’s trade and budget deficits as Indonesia subsidises a significant amount of domestic fuels). As oil and gas imports accounted for about 23 percent of total imports of Indonesia in April 2014.

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In the past week, the global crude oil price has increased considerably due to geopolitical tensions in Iraq which can disturb oil supplies from the Middle East. Up to the end of 2014, provided that no exceptional developments occur, the oil price is expected to range between USD $105-110 per barrel. Meanwhile, the Indonesian government announced that, despite the higher oil price putting pressure on the government’s budget balance, it will not increase prices of subsidized fuels this year.

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The economic stabilisation policies launched by Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) and the Indonesian government in recent months have brought a steady improvement in the country's current account balance. The current account deficit moderated from the previous quarter’s record USD $9.9 billion (equivalent to 4.4 percent of the country's GDP) to USD $8.4 billion (3.8 percent of GDP) in the third quarter of 2013. A shrinking current account deficit is highly awaited by investors. The text below is the official press release of Bank Indonesia.

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Indonesian car sales have already exceeded the one million mark in October 2013. In the January-October period, 1,018,786 car units were sold, a ten percent increase compared to car sales in the same period last year. Growing demand for cars in Indonesia indicates that this sector of Southeast Asia's largest economy is not influenced by current negative market sentiments, such as the sharply depreciated Indonesian rupiah exchange rate (against the US dollar), high inflation (8.32 percent yoy in October 2013), and slowing economic growth.

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