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Indonesian stocks went downhill on Monday (09.03.2020) while stock markets around the world are crashing. The Jakarta Composite Index fell 6.58 percent to 5,136.81 points on the first trading day of the week, its lowest level since December 2016.
The government of Indonesia needs to keep spending on energy subsidies under control. Looking at the latest data, released by the Finance Ministry on Wednesday (03/01), the government spent IDR 7.4 trillion (approx. USD $573 million) more on energy subsidies (fuel, LPN and electricity) throughout 2017 than it had targeted in the (revised) 2017 state budget.
The price of coal continued to strengthen for a second consecutive day on Thursday (24/08). The coal price for January 2018 contracts (the most-active contract on the Rotterdam commodities exchange) climbed 0.45 percent to USD $78.25 per metric ton, after closing higher 0.46 percent on the preceding trading day.
Strengthening coal prices continued at the end of trading on Thursday (03/08), or early Friday morning morning Indonesian time zone, while at the same time crude oil prices declined again. Yesterday, the price of coal (for October 2017 contract, the most active contract on the Rotterdam commodities exchange) rose 0.80 percent to USD $81.55 per metric ton, hence extending gains.
The coal price extended gains on Monday (31/07) amid the crude oil rally that has been triggered by OPEC agreements. On Monday the price of coal (January 2018 contracts, the most active contract on the Rotterdam commodities exchange) rose 1.08 percent to USD $79.35 per metric ton, the highest level in nearly three years (while in early trading the price had actually tumbled 4.52 percent).
The coal price strengthened at the end of trading on Thursday (27/07) - or Friday morning Indonesian time - supported by the rebound in crude oil prices. At the end of trade on Thursday, coal prices (January 2018 contracts, the most-active contract on the Rotterdam Commodities Exchange) had risen 0.21 percent to USD $73.30 per metric ton.
Rubber prices rose on Wednesday morning (26/07) as the Japanese yen weakened against the US dollar. The price of rubber (December 2017 delivery, the most-active contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, or Tocom), had gained 1.04 percent, or 2.2 points, to 213.70 yen per kilogram (kg) by 10:26 am local Jakarta time, after opening sideways at the level of 211.50 yen per kg. Yesterday, rubber prices climbed 1.05 percent.
The coal price weakened at the end of trading on Monday (24/07). Coal futures (January 2018 contracts, the most active contract on the Rotterdam commodities exchange), fell 1.84 percent to USD $72.38 per metric ton on Monday, reversing from their performance on the preceding trading session (Friday 21/07) when coal prices rose 0.45 percent to USD $73.74 per metric ton.
The Indonesian government proposes to revise the budget deficit in the 2017 State Budget as it eyes an increase in spending but a cut in revenue (less-than-expected tax income) in the remainder of the year. On Thursday (06/07) Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati handed the proposal to Commission XI of Indonesian parliament. The Finance Ministry now sees the shortfall rising to IDR 36.16 trillion (approx. USD $2.7 billion) in the 2017 budget.
Most stocks in Asia were in the red zone on Wednesday morning (21/06) as oil entered bear territory after prices continued to tumble (with Brent at seven-month lows) due to rising oil output in Libya and Nigeria. Meanwhile, Chinese shares seem to enjoy limited support only from the decision of US index provider MSCI to add China's mainland stocks to one of its key benchmarks.
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If we take a look at Indonesia's central government spending in the first four months of 2018, then we detect something interesting. Overall, government spending has grown in the January-April 2018 period (compared to the same period one year earlier). However, growth in government spending is led by rising social assistance spending and rising subsidy spending. Meanwhile, growth of infrastructure spending has been much less robust. Does this mean that the Indonesian government has curtailed infrastructure development spending in order to relieve rising pressures on the budget deficit?
An interesting interview with Lana Soelistianingsih was published in Indonesian tabloid Kontan, a magazine that focuses on the economy and financial markets of Indonesia. Soelistianingsih is Head of Economy at Samuel Aset Manajemen as well as a teacher at the Economics Department of the University of Indonesia. The topic of the interview is crude oil.
Overall, low crude oil prices are problematic for stock markets as low prices indicate the world economy is not expanding on full throttle. This curbs investors' risk appetite. Particularly those companies that are active in the oil industry (or in related industries) will likely face declining share prices. However, there are also positive effects of low oil prices. For example consumers' purchasing power should improve because prices at the gas pump are lower, while some companies can curb operational costs. Hence, consumer and transportation stocks should actually benefit from low oil prices.
On Tuesday 8 November the people of the world's largest economy will vote for their next president. According to the latest polls the race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump is too close to call. This is the reason why we saw the global selloff last week: markets had already priced in a Clinton victory (who was leading the polls earlier) but when polls started to suggest a rather tight battle, many investors turned to safe haven assets. In the coming days investors will remain focused on the US presidential election.
The government of Indonesia proposes to cut the state revenue target by IDR 88 trillion (approx. USD $6.5 billion) in the Revised 2016 State Budget. Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro announced the government has sent the proposal to the House of Representatives’ Budget Committee (Banggar) on Thursday (02/06). Expectations of lower government revenue is the result of weaker-than-estimated tax collection, the lower-than-initially-assumed Indonesian crude oil price as well as the lower-than- estimated oil and gas production in Indonesia.
After declining below the USD $30 per barrel level in February 2016, crude oil prices have shown a rising trend, touching the USD $50 per barrel level. One of the companies that hopes this rising trend will continue is Indonesian company Logindo Samudramakmur, a company that provides offshore support vessels for oil & gas exploration. However, when oil prices are low, oil and gas exploration is limited. Moreover, existing clients request for lower prices of Logindo Samudramakmur's services.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects to see deflation at 0.15 percent month-to-month (m/m) in February 2016. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said lower (government) administered prices in combination with low core inflation will be the recipe for deflation in the second month of the year. The lower administered prices that are primarily the cause of deflation consist of fuel prices, air fares and 12-kilogram liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) canisters. In the first month of the year Indonesian inflation accelerated to 4.14 percent (y/y).
Tomorrow (05/02), Statistics Indonesia is scheduled to release Indonesia's official full-year 2015 economic growth figure. Nearly all analysts expect to see a figure that reflects the continuation of slowing economic growth. Southeast Asia's largest economy expanded 5.0 percent in 2014 and this is expected to have eased further to 4.7 percent or 4.8 percent in 2015 on the back of (interrelated) sluggish global growth, low commodity prices, and weak export performance. Domestically, Indonesia has or had to cope with high interest rates and inflation (hence curtailing people's purchasing power and consumption as well as business expansion).
Produksi minyak mentah Indonesia diharapkan untuk berningkat mulai pertengahan Maret 2015 karena sumur-sumur minyak baru mulai berproduksi tahun ini, termasuk ladang minyak Bukit Tua (bagian dari blok Ketapang di Jawa Timur yang dioperasikan Petronas Carigali). Selama dua dekade terakhir produksi minyak Indonesia telah menurun drastis karena ladang-ladang minyak tua mulai jenuh dan kurangnya eksplorasi dan investasi lain di sektor minyak dan gas Indonesia. Pada 2014, Indonesia memproduksi kira-kira 794.000 barrel minyak per hari (bmph).
The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated on Wednesday (14/01) as global oil and other commodity prices continued to fall thus casting a negative spell on Indonesia’s currency. The rupiah depreciated 0.11 percent to IDR 12,614 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Market participants are concerned about the negative influence of low commodity prices on Indonesia’s export performance. Southeast Asia’s largest economy has had to cope with a wide trade and current account deficit in recent years.
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