The new trading week started positively in Asia. After Wall Street had risen sharply on Friday (22/01) due to higher oil prices (particularly causing surging energy stocks), Asia extended the rally on Monday (25/01). In addition, investors are optimistic that the central bank of Japan will turn to more easing (the institution will conduct its monthly policy meeting later this week), while the European Central Bank had already hinted at further easing in last week's policy meeting.

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Indonesia turned into a net oil importer in 2004 as domestic oil output declined sharply while domestic fuel consumption surged amid the growing economy (hence becoming more and more dependent on oil imports). Prior to 2016, the Indonesian government provided generous energy subsidies (for fuel and electricity), resulting in a deteriorating budget deficit, trade deficit, current account deficit, and pressure on the rupiah. Moreover, government spending on energy consumption limited room for government spending on productive sectors such as infrastructure and social development.

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Again Asian stock markets went into deep red territory. Japan officially entered a bear market (the Nikkei 225 Index plunged 3.71 percent today), Singapore's benchmark Straits Times Index hit a more than four-year low after declining nearly 3 percent, while Philippine stocks dropped to a near-oversold level after falling 1.53 percent. At first Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index managed to limit losses. However, towards the end of Wednesday's trading day pressure became too much, hence dropping 1.42 percent.

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Persistent weak crude oil prices jeopardize smoothness of Indonesia's biodiesel program as cheap oil - currently trading below USD $30 per barrel - reduces demand for biodiesel and makes the biodiesel industry less economic viable. This year the government of Indonesia plans to launch the B20 biodiesel program (one notch up from the existing B15 program), referring to the requirement to blend a mandatory 20 percent of fatty acid methyl ester (FAME, derived from palm oil) with 80 percent of diesel.

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Meskipun musim dingin telah tiba, harga minyak dunia masih menurun. Hari ini (21/12), harga minyak mentah Brent jatuh ke level terendah sejak 2004 karena kekuatiran yang berkelanjutan tentang berlimpahnya suplai global karena Energy Information Administration melaporkan bahwa suplai minyak mentah AS naik 4,8 juta barel menjadi 490,7 juta pada minggu kedua bulan Desember, sementara tingkat produksi OPEC mencapai 31,7 juta barel per hari (bph) pada bulan November 2015. Sementara itu, permintaan minyak diperkirakan akan turun di tahun 2016. Sebagai contoh, konsumsi minyak di AS diperkirakan akan turun menjadi 1,2 juta bph tahun depan, dari 1,8 bph pada tahun 2015.

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Saham-saham di Asia diprediksi akan berada di bawah tekanan hari ini karena harga minyak mentah turun 2,9% semalam setelah American Petroleum Institute menerbitkan sebuah laporan yang menyatakan suplai minyak Amerika Serikat (AS) bertambah secara tak terduga sebesar 6,3 juta barel. Harga komoditi lain juga turun setelah penerbitan data output industri yang jatuh dari Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) pada hari Rabu. Kendati begitu, dengan penjualan ritel RRT yang positif di bulan Oktober (kenaikan terkuat pada tahun ini) sedikit kemungkinan akan terjadi stimulus besar baru dari pihak berwenang RRT.

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Indonesian state-owned energy company Pertamina raised the price of pertamax, a 92-octane gasoline, by 2.3 percent per 1 May 2015 as the result of recovering global oil prices. On Java, Indonesia’s most populous island, the price of pertamax rose by IDR 200 to IDR 8,800 (USD $0.68) per liter. Outside Java, fuel prices are generally more expensive due to high logistics costs. The price of premium, the low-octane gasoline which was heavily subsidized until the start of the year, was left unchanged at IDR 7,400 (USD $0.57) per liter.

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The Indonesian government may raise the price of subsidized gasoline for April 2015 as the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) rose through February and March from USD $52 per barrel to USD $57 per barrel based on data from the upstream oil & gas regulator SKK Migas. After the Indonesian government drastically reduced fuel subsidy spending at the start of 2015, subsidized gasoline prices are now set each month, in line with price fluctuations on the world market. For subsidized diesel the government provides a fixed IDR 1,000 per liter.

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Indonesia’s Commission VII of the House of Representatives (DPR) - the commission that oversees the country’s energy affairs - and the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources agreed on Wednesday (28/01) to set a 825,000 barrels per day (bpd) oil production target for 2015 in the Revised 2015 State Budget (APBN-P 2015), up from an estimated 794,000 bpd of realized production in 2014. Since its peak production of 1.6 million bpd in 1995, oil output of Indonesia (a former OPEC member) has declined drastically.

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Indonesia’s Chief Economics Minister Sofyan Djalil said that Indonesia will further reduce prices of low-octane gasoline and subsidized diesel at the end of this month as global oil prices continue to fall (touching five-year lows). On 1 January 2015, the Indonesian government had already removed subsidy for widely-used low-octane gasoline (premium), while a fixed subsidy scheme was introduced for diesel (solar) meaning that the government now provides a subsidy of IDR 1,000 (USD $0.08) per liter of diesel.

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If we take a look at Indonesia's central government spending in the first four months of 2018, then we detect something interesting. Overall, government spending has grown in the January-April 2018 period (compared to the same period one year earlier). However, growth in government spending is led by rising social assistance spending and rising subsidy spending. Meanwhile, growth of infrastructure spending has been much less robust. Does this mean that the Indonesian government has curtailed infrastructure development spending in order to relieve rising pressures on the budget deficit?

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An interesting interview with Lana Soelistianingsih was published in Indonesian tabloid Kontan, a magazine that focuses on the economy and financial markets of Indonesia. Soelistianingsih is Head of Economy at Samuel Aset Manajemen as well as a teacher at the Economics Department of the University of Indonesia. The topic of the interview is crude oil.

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Overall, low crude oil prices are problematic for stock markets as low prices indicate the world economy is not expanding on full throttle. This curbs investors' risk appetite. Particularly those companies that are active in the oil industry (or in related industries) will likely face declining share prices. However, there are also positive effects of low oil prices. For example consumers' purchasing power should improve because prices at the gas pump are lower, while some companies can curb operational costs. Hence, consumer and transportation stocks should actually benefit from low oil prices.

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On Tuesday 8 November the people of the world's largest economy will vote for their next president. According to the latest polls the race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump is too close to call. This is the reason why we saw the global selloff last week: markets had already priced in a Clinton victory (who was leading the polls earlier) but when polls started to suggest a rather tight battle, many investors turned to safe haven assets. In the coming days investors will remain focused on the US presidential election.

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The government of Indonesia proposes to cut the state revenue target by IDR 88 trillion (approx. USD $6.5 billion) in the Revised 2016 State Budget. Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro announced the government has sent the proposal to the House of Representatives’ Budget Committee (Banggar) on Thursday (02/06). Expectations of lower government revenue is the result of weaker-than-estimated tax collection, the lower-than-initially-assumed Indonesian crude oil price as well as the lower-than- estimated oil and gas production in Indonesia.

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After declining below the USD $30 per barrel level in February 2016, crude oil prices have shown a rising trend, touching the USD $50 per barrel level. One of the companies that hopes this rising trend will continue is Indonesian company Logindo Samudramakmur, a company that provides offshore support vessels for oil & gas exploration. However, when oil prices are low, oil and gas exploration is limited. Moreover, existing clients request for lower prices of Logindo Samudramakmur's services.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects to see deflation at 0.15 percent month-to-month (m/m) in February 2016. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said lower (government) administered prices in combination with low core inflation will be the recipe for deflation in the second month of the year. The lower administered prices that are primarily the cause of deflation consist of fuel prices, air fares and 12-kilogram liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) canisters. In the first month of the year Indonesian inflation accelerated to 4.14 percent (y/y).

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Tomorrow (05/02), Statistics Indonesia is scheduled to release Indonesia's official full-year 2015 economic growth figure. Nearly all analysts expect to see a figure that reflects the continuation of slowing economic growth. Southeast Asia's largest economy expanded 5.0 percent in 2014 and this is expected to have eased further to 4.7 percent or 4.8 percent in 2015 on the back of (interrelated) sluggish global growth, low commodity prices, and weak export performance. Domestically, Indonesia has or had to cope with high interest rates and inflation (hence curtailing people's purchasing power and consumption as well as business expansion).

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Produksi minyak mentah Indonesia diharapkan untuk berningkat mulai pertengahan Maret 2015 karena sumur-sumur minyak baru mulai berproduksi tahun ini, termasuk ladang minyak Bukit Tua (bagian dari blok Ketapang di Jawa Timur yang dioperasikan Petronas Carigali). Selama dua dekade terakhir produksi minyak Indonesia telah menurun drastis karena ladang-ladang minyak tua mulai jenuh dan kurangnya eksplorasi dan investasi lain di sektor minyak dan gas Indonesia. Pada 2014, Indonesia memproduksi kira-kira 794.000 barrel minyak per hari (bmph).

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated on Wednesday (14/01) as global oil and other commodity prices continued to fall thus casting a negative spell on Indonesia’s currency. The rupiah depreciated 0.11 percent to IDR 12,614 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Market participants are concerned about the negative influence of low commodity prices on Indonesia’s export performance. Southeast Asia’s largest economy has had to cope with a wide trade and current account deficit in recent years.

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