Oil production at the Banyu Urip field, part of the Cepu Block in East Java, has finally reached the level of 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) in February 2016 after a long delay. According to Indonesia's oil & gas regulator SKK Migas, production at the field stood at an average of 130,000 bpd in the first month of 2016. The Banyu Urip field, operated by ExxonMobil Cepu Ltd, is expected to reach its top production rate - around 165,000 bpd - in March or April. This would mean that the Banyu Urip field accounts for nearly 20 percent of Indonesia's total oil production.

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The government of Indonesia wants to construct the Bontang oil refinery in East Kalimantan through a private-public partnership (PPP). Sudirman Said, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, said construction of the Bontang oil refinery is scheduled to commence in 2017. State-owned energy company Pertamina will be in charge of the project and is now searching for investors to participate in the project which is estimated to require a total of USD $14.5 billion in investment.

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Indonesia turned into a net oil importer in 2004 as domestic oil output declined sharply while domestic fuel consumption surged amid the growing economy (hence becoming more and more dependent on oil imports). Prior to 2016, the Indonesian government provided generous energy subsidies (for fuel and electricity), resulting in a deteriorating budget deficit, trade deficit, current account deficit, and pressure on the rupiah. Moreover, government spending on energy consumption limited room for government spending on productive sectors such as infrastructure and social development.

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Meskipun harga minyak agak membaik dari posisi terendah dalam 12 tahun terakhir pada hari Jumat (08/01) karena rebound pasar saham Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT), ada kekuatiran bahwa Indonesia tidak akan mencapai target lifting minyak 2016 karena produsen minyak di negara ini menjadi kurang bersemangat untuk meningkatkan produksi saat harga minyak lemah. Kemarin, minyak Brent turun ke 32,16 dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) per barel - tingkat terendah sejak 2004 - setelah RRT mendevaluasi yuan dan saham RRT anjlok lebih dari 7% yang menyebabkan terjadinya mekanisme circuit-breaking, bahkan menyebabkan penjualan saham global secara besar-besaran.

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Neraca transaksi berjalan di Indonesia membaik karena neraca perdagangan non minyak & gas (migas) yang lebih kuat. Defisit transaksi berjalan Indonesia menurun menjadi 4,0 miliar dollar Amerika Serikat (AS), atau 1,86% dari Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB), di kuartal ketiga tahun 2015. Performa ini jauh lebih baik dari defisit 7,0 miliar dollar AS (3,02% dari PDB) yang tercatat di kuartal 3 tahun 2014 atau 4,2 miliar dollar AS (1,95% dari PDB) di kuartal 2 tahun 2015. Sementara itu, neraca pembayaran menunjukkan defisit sebesar 4,6 miliar dollar AS, naik dari defisit 2,93 miliar di kuartal sebelumnya.

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The government of Indonesia decided to offer more attractive profit sharing schemes in order to lure investors to invest the nation’s oil & gas blocks. In September, the government plans to auction a total of eight oil & gas blocks with a profit sharing of 30 percent to 35 percent for oil, and 35 percent to 40 percent for gas. The majority of profit will still go to the government. Usually, the government offers a 15 percent profit share for oil and a 30 percent profit share for gas to investors.

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Indonesia’s trade balance surplus widened to USD $1.33 billion in July 2015, improving markedly from the USD $528 million trade surplus in the preceding month and being much higher than expectations of analysts. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia’s July exports fell 19.2 percent (y/y) to USD $11.4 billion, while imports plunged 28.4 percent (y/y) to USD $10.1 billion. The trade surplus is positive as it supports a narrowing current account deficit (which stood at 2.1 percent of GDP in Q2-2015).

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Indonesia diprediksi akan memproduksi antara 800.000 sampai 830,000 barel minyak per hari (barrels of oil per day/bpd) di 2016. Cakupan target ini disetujui dalam sebuah rapat kerja antara Komisi VII (yang mengawasi sektor energi negara) dari Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat (DPR) dan Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM). Rapat ini diadakan dalam konteks pertimbangan mengenai Anggaran Perencanaan Belanja Negara (APBN) 2016. Sejauh ini di tahun ini, hasil produksi minyak mentah Indonesia berjumlah rata-rata 802.046 bpd (dalam basis bulanan). Meskipun begitu, permintaan domestik berjumlah 1,43 juta bpd.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced on Wednesday (15/04) that Indonesia posted a USD $1.13 billion trade surplus in March 2015, the country’s fourth straight monthly trade surplus, and almost twice the size that analysts had forecast earlier. Despite the monthly trade surplus being good news, data also showed that both Indonesian exports and imports contracted. Exports were down 9.8 percent (y/y) to USD $13.71 billion in March, while imports fell 13.4 percent (y/y) to USD $12.58 billion.

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Karena ketidakjelasan menenai kewajiban letters of credit (L/C) yang baru ditetapkan, Pemerintah Indonesia telah memutuskan untuk bersikap fleksibel. Dimulai dari hari Rabu (01/04) para eksportir Indonesia dari empat komoditi kunci - batubara, minyak (inti) kelapa sawit, minyak & gas, dan bahan-bahan mineral - diharuskan menggunakan L/C untuk semua perjanjian ekspor. Kebijakan baru ini dibuat untuk meningkatkan pemasukan ekspor Indonesia dan meningkatkan pengawasan penjualan sumberdaya alam Indonesia. Kendati begitu, pengecualian sementara kini dimungkinkan terjadi.

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Indonesia’s state-owned energy company Pertamina and local governments will become the new operators of the Mahakam oil and gas block (located offshore in East Kalimantan) after existing contracts of current operators end on 31 December 2017. The Indonesian government announced on Friday (19/06) that it is to grant Pertamina a 70 percent stake in the Mahakam block, Indonesia’s largest oil and gas block. The current operators of the block are French oil giant Total SA and Japan-based oil firm Inpex Corp, each owning a 50 percent stake.

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Produksi minyak mentah Indonesia diharapkan untuk berningkat mulai pertengahan Maret 2015 karena sumur-sumur minyak baru mulai berproduksi tahun ini, termasuk ladang minyak Bukit Tua (bagian dari blok Ketapang di Jawa Timur yang dioperasikan Petronas Carigali). Selama dua dekade terakhir produksi minyak Indonesia telah menurun drastis karena ladang-ladang minyak tua mulai jenuh dan kurangnya eksplorasi dan investasi lain di sektor minyak dan gas Indonesia. Pada 2014, Indonesia memproduksi kira-kira 794.000 barrel minyak per hari (bmph).

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The trade balance of Indonesia improved in 2014. Over the whole year of 2014 Indonesia posted a USD $1.88 billion trade deficit, significantly better than the USD $4.08 billion deficit it recorded a year earlier. Today (02/02), Statistics Indonesia announced that Indonesia posted a USD $0.19 billion trade surplus in the last month of the year after having recorded a USD $0.42 billion trade deficit in the preceding month. The improved performance is mainly due to the country’s growing non-oil & gas surplus and narrowing oil & gas deficit.

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Indonesia is facing the risk of becoming a net importer of energy by 2019 as the nation’s energy demand will reach 6.19 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) whereas the domestic energy supply will only reach 6.04 million boepd by that year. Provided that the economy of Indonesia remains expanding at a pace of +5 percent (year-on-year) while investments in energy exploration do not rise accordingly, Southeast Asia’s largest economy will become dependent on foreign energy supplies.

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After having recorded a trade deficit for several months, Indonesia finally posted a USD $20 million trade surplus in October 2014, according to data from the country’s Central Statistics Agency (BPS) released on Monday (01/12). Exports in October amounted to USD $15.35 billion, while imports were recorded at USD $15.33 billion. The improvement in Indonesia’s trade balance was mainly on the back of growth in the country’s non-oil & gas sector exports. This sector saw a surplus of USD $1.13 billion (up from USD $760 million in September).

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The current account deficit of Indonesia eased to USD $6.84 billion, or 3.07 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2014 (down from USD $8.69 billion, or 4.07 percent of GDP in the previous quarter). This improvement was mainly supported by a solid surplus in the country’s non-oil & gas sector, partly the result of the US economic recovery as well as resumed copper concentrate exports by Freeport Indonesia and Newmont Nusa Tenggara (after successful mining contract renegotiations).

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) released a press statement on Wednesday evening (01/10) in which it set out its view on the country’s trade balance and inflation after the latest economic data had been released by Statistics Indonesia (abbreviated BPS) earlier on the day. Based on information of BPS, Indonesia’s September inflation was relatively low at 0.27 percent month-to-month (m/m), while the August trade balance swung back into a deficit at USD $318.1 million.

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Governor of the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia), Agus Martowardojo, commented on Indonesia’s troubled current account balance on Tuesday (12/08). Martowardojo said that he expects the balance to improve in 2014. Last year, the current account deficit of Southeast Asia’s largest economy reached 3.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP); a level which is generally regarded as unsustainable. This year, the deficit may ease to 3 percent of GDP. For investors the current account balance is an important matter. Why?

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According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the country’s trade balance in June 2014 recorded a deficit of USD $0.30 billion after the USD $0.05 billion surplus in the previous month. The performance of Indonesia’s trade balance was influenced by shrinkage of the country’s non-oil & gas surplus amid a lower oil & gas deficit compared to May 2014. Meanwhile, inflation was up 0.93 percent (month-to-month) in July 2014; a good performance amid the Ramadan and Idul Fitri festivities. Annual inflation eased to 4.53 percent (year-on-year).

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Inflation in June 2014 increased by 0.43 percent (month-to-month, mtm) in accordance with the traditional pattern ahead of the holy fasting month of Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations. These occasions always trigger inflationary pressures as consumers increase spending. However, June inflation remains under control and is even lower than the historical average in June in recent years (0.56 percent mtm). On a year-on-year (yoy) basis, inflation stood at 6.70 percent, thus continuing the downward trend since the beginning of 2014.

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