Di dalam Update Perekonomian Asia Timur dan Pasifik dari Bank Dunia, dirilis hari Senin (13/04), institusi yang bermarkas di Washington ini merevisi turun proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia menjadi 5,2% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di 2015, menurun dari 5,6% di Update Bank Dunia sebelumnya. Penyebab utama penurunan proyeksi ini adalah performa ekspor Indonesia yang tetap lemah karena lambatnya perekonomian dunia, termasuk lemahnya permintaan dari Republik Rakyat Tionghoa (mitra dagang terbesar Indonesia). Sementara itu, konsumsi domestik Indonesia dibatasi tingkat suku bunga yang tinggi.

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Both Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are weakening on Monday’s trading day (13/04). During the first trading session at the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index declined 0.65 percent to 5,455.45 points. Meanwhile, the rupiah had depreciated 0.35 percent to IDR 12,973 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index at 1:05 pm local Jakarta time on Monday (13/04). What are the primary factors that influenced these weak performances?

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Di edisi terbaru dari Update Perekonomian Asia Pasifik Timur, dirilis pada hari Senin (13 April 2015), Bank Dunia menurunkan proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi untuk negara-negara berkembang di Asia Timur & Republik Rakyat Tionghoa (RRT) menjadi 6,7% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di 2015 dan 2016 dari asumsi awalnya yaitu pertumbuhan 6,9% (y/y) di 2015 dan 6,8% (y/y) di 2016. Alasan utama untuk menurunnya revisi adalah karena ketidakjelasan konteks perekonomian global, yang mencakup dampak dari ancaman kenaikan suku bunga Amerika Serikat (AS) dan kenaikan nilai tukar dollar AS.

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Bank Dunia menerbitkan laporan terbarunya mengenai Perekonomian Indonesia pada tanggal 18 Maret 2015. Dalam laporan yang berjudul 'High Expectations’ ini Bank Dunia memuji perkembangan reformasi awal di beberapa area kunci seperti subsidi bahan bakar minyak dan juga bertambahnya tindakan-tindakan reformasi kunci yang sedang dalam proses. Ini membangkitkan harapan yang tinggi mengenai perekonomian Indonesia pada jangka waktu menengah maupun panjang. Namun, Pemerintah juga menghadapi halangan-halangan untuk menerapkan reformasi struktural lebih lanjut karena prospek pertumbuhan yang menurun.

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On 18 January 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as presentations at the Indonesia Investment Summit 2015, reports from the World Bank, Deutsche Bank, Moody’s and the ADB on the Indonesian economy, Bank Indonesia’s interest rate, and more.

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After the World Bank released a rather gloomy forecast for global economic growth on Tuesday (13/01) while crude oil prices continue to fall, global commodity prices have become under pressure on Wednesday’s trading day. In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank said that the global economy will grow 3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2015, down from its previous estimate of 3.4 percent (y/y). Its growth forecast for economic growth in 2016 was also revised down from 3.5 percent (y/y) to 3.3 percent.

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Despite slowing economic growth in China (the world’s second-largest economy), the World Bank forecasts higher economic growth for emerging markets in 2015 driven by a decline in global oil prices, a stronger US economy, and continued low global interest rates. The World Bank expects to see a 4.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) GDP growth rate in emerging markets this year, up from an estimated 4.4 percent (y/y) in 2014. Meanwhile, the global economy is expected to grow 3 percent (y/y) in 2015.

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Coremap, a project supported by the World Bank, aims to revive Indonesia’s coral reefs in an effort to improve the welfare of coastal communities in Indonesia. By rehabilitating coral reefs, the country’s fish population, vital to the livelihoods of local communities, can expand. Moreover, the rehabilitation of coral reefs entails better opportunities in the (eco)tourism sector as it will attract underwater tourism. As such, new small businesses can be established in the coastal areas.

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Today, exactly ten years ago, Indonesia and 13 other countries were struck by a devastating tsunami resulting in the deaths of 230,000 people and displacement of 1.7 million people. In Aceh (the northern tip on the island of Sumatra), the main point of impact in Indonesia, more than 167,000 people died as a result of the tsunami (caused by a submarine earthquake in the Indian Ocean). According to the World Bank, Aceh is now better prepared to face such a natural disaster after a long reconstruction period.

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On Monday (08/12) the World Bank released the December edition of its Indonesia Economic Quarterly, entitled ‘Delivering Chance’. In the report the World Bank cut its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia next year to 5.2 percent (y/y), from 5.6 percent (y/y) in the July edition of its flagship publication, due to weaker investment growth and sluggish exports. Indonesia’s GDP growth in 2014 is projected at 5.1 percent (y/y), slightly below the World Bank’s previous estimate of 5.2 percent.

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The World Bank says income inequality in Indonesia is widening and as a consequence the fruits of Indonesia's economic growth over the past decade have only been enjoyed by the richest 20 percent of Indonesian society, leaving behind the remaining 80 percent of the population (or 200 million people). In its new report titled "Indonesia's Rising Divide" the World Bank states that rising inequality in society can jeopardize social cohesion, as well as political and economic stability over the long term. The report claims that inequality in Indonesia has reached a relatively high level and is climbing faster than in most of its regional peers.

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Today (22/10), the World Bank released the October 2015 edition of its flagship Indonesia Economic Quarterly, titled "In Times of Global Volatility". In the report the World Bank states that despite current ongoing global uncertainties (caused by looming monetary tightening in the USA and China's economic slowdown), which make macroeconomic management difficult in the year ahead, pro-active government action could offset the negative impact and may help to boost growth.

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Sejak akhir 2011 Indonesia telah dibebani oleh defisit transaksi berjalan struktural yang menguatirkan baik para pembuat kebijakan maupun para investor (asing). Meskipun pihak berwenang di Indonesia telah mengimplementasikan reformasi kebijakan dan penyesuaian perekonomian di beberapa tahun terakhir, defisit transaksi berjalan Indonesia hanya sedikit berubah di 2015. Baik Bank Dunia maupun Bank Indonesia memprediksi bahwa defisit transaksi berjalan akan tetap berada sedikit di bawah 3% dari produk domestik bruto (PDB) di 2015, sangat dekat dengan batasan yang memisahkan defisit yang sustainable dan yang unsustainable.

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World Investment Report 2015 menyatakan bahwa masuknya investasi asing langsung (FDI) ke Indonesia bertumbuh 20% year-on-year (y/y) menjadi 23 miliar dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada tahun 2014. Maka pertumbuhan FDI di Indonesia melewati pertumbuhan FDI yang dicatat di Singapura (+4% y/y menjadi 68 miliar dollar AS) dan Vietnam (+3% menjadi 9,2 miliar dollar AS), menimbulkan optimisme bahwa Indonesia - negara dengan perekonomian terbesar di Asia Tenggara - akan terus menjadi tujuan investasi yang menguntungkan di Benua Asia untuk investor asing di tahun-tahun mendatang.

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Indonesia adalah pemegang saham terbesar ke-8 di Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) yang baru saja didirikan. Kementerian Keuangan Indonesia mengumumkan di awal minggu ini bahwa Indonesia akan menginvestasikan 672,1 juta dollar AS di AIIB selama lima tahun ke depan. AIIB adalah sebuah lembaga keuangan multilateral yang baru (dipelopori oleh Republik Rakyat Tiongkok) yang menyediakan dana untuk proyek pembangunan infrastruktur di wilayah Asia Pasifik.

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Hariyadi Sukamdani, Chairman of the Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo), expressed his concern about unemployment in Indonesia, particularly unemployment among the younger generation of Indonesians (aged between 15 and 29). Amid slowing economic growth over the past six years, various industries have been cutting employment. With roughly half of the total population below 30 years of age, Indonesia’s demographic bonus can turn into disaster if this potential workforce fails to obtain employment opportunities.

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Program Bantuan Operasional Sekolah (BOS) telah beroperasi selama satu dekade. Selama periode ini, program BOS terus menerus diperbaiki dan mengalirkan pendanaan yang besar untuk kira-kira 43 juta sekolah dasar dan sekolah menengah pertama di Indonesia. Program BOS yang berdana besar bertujuan untuk memastikan bahwa sekolah memiliki cukup dana untuk beroperasi, mengurangi biaya pendidikan yang dibayar rumah tangga dan memperbaiki manajemen berbasis sekolah.

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Although recently having slowed, Indonesia has experienced solid economic growth over the past ten years, with the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) almost doubling between 2001 and 2012. However, robust economic growth also resulted in significant environmental degradation and accelerated depletion of Indonesia’s natural resources. Sri Mulyani Indrawati, World Bank Group Managing Director (and former Indonesian Finance Minister), emphasized that Indonesia needs to shift from a ‘brown’ to a ‘green’ growth model.

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A new World Bank report, entitled “The Double Burden of Malnutrition in Indonesia”, says that 37.2 percent of Indonesian children under the age of five - or 8.4 million children - are stunted (meaning excessively small for their age) and suffer from chronic malnutrition. As such, Indonesia has the fifth-highest level of stunting in the world. The report also states that 19.6 percent of Indonesian children under five years old (approximately 4.4 million) are underweight as a result of malnutrition. Public awareness about this issue is low in Indonesia.

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) released a report today (24/03) in which it discusses recent economic developments in Indonesia. According to the report, Indonesia’s economic growth is projected to accelerate over the two years ahead provided that the Indonesian government continues to implement structural policy reforms. Such reforms - which include the acceleration of infrastructure development, reduction of logistical costs, and enhancing budget implementation - should lead to an improvement of the investment climate.

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