The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has released the latest edition of its report, titled Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific 2013, this week. The report aims to identify policy, social, infrastructure, and technology issues that should be addressed to meet the future energy needs of members of the ADB in Asia and the Pacific. Key findings in the case of Indonesia include that the country's primary energy demand is projected to reach 445.4 Mtoe in 2035, up from 207.8 Mtoe in 2010 and that it may become a net importer of natural gas.

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Indonesia is expected to replace the United States as the world's largest importer of oil by 2018, unless the country is able to limit domestic oil consumption or boost the nation's oil production. Recently, Indonesia has put more effort in limiting oil imports as these have caused a widening trade deficit. The trade deficit was at a new record high at USD $5.65 billion in the first seven months of 2013, particularly caused by the country's oil & gas deficit (USD $7.6 billion), while the non-oil & gas sector posted a surplus of USD $1.9 billion.

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Indonesia Investments updated the company profile of AKR Corporindo (AKRA), Indonesia’s leading integrated supply chain solutions provider and largest private sector distributor of petroleum and basic chemicals. Apart from trading and distribution, the company is also engaged in other business lines, i.e. logistic services, manufacturing, as well as coal mining and trading. In the first six months of 2013, AKRA recorded a 17.9 percent jump in profit to IDR 350.9 billion (USD $31.9 million) compared to the same period last year.

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The macroeconomic assumptions that have been formulated in the 2014 State Budget Draft by the government of Indonesia are not considered too realistic by several analysts. Although it is understood that one should set a high standard in order to maximize efforts, analysts feel that - given the current problematic economic context in Asian emerging economies as well as global economic turmoil - the government is far too optimistic, particularly because the government will have to devote part of its attention to the elections in mid-2014.

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The government of Indonesia is concerned that the trade deficit in the oil and gas sector that was posted in the first six months of 2013, will continue in the second half of the year and will also disturb the trade balance in 2014. Indonesia's oil and gas sector posted a deficit in Semester I-2013 of USD $5.82 billion, while the non-oil and gas sector posted an USD $2.51 billion surplus. Minister of Trade Gita Wirjawan believes that Indonesia's trade deficit may reach beyond USD $5 to $6 billion this year.

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The Indonesian government assumes that the recently increased prices of subsidized fuels will translate into lower oil imports from the third quarter of 2013. Lower oil imports will result in lower demand for foreign currencies and, as such, will support Indonesia's currency, the rupiah. The value of the IDR rupiah is also influenced by market participants' expectation of inflation. Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) projects inflation to rise to 2.77 percent in July, and to slow down to 1 percent in both August and September.

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Pertamina, an integrated energy company, is the largest state-owned company of Indonesia. It conducts operations in the exploration and production of oil & gas, both national and international, and is also active in the development of renewable energy sources, such as geothermal energy and coalbed methane (CBM) gas. Pertamina's downstream activities cover processing, marketing, trading and shipping of its commodities. Its oil and gas exploration activities are conducted through its subsidiaries Pertamina EP, Pertamina Hulu Energi and Pertamina EP Cepu.

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Credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service stated in a report released on Monday (24/06) that it is positive about the impact of the increase in price of subsidized fuel in Indonesia. Through this measure, the budget deficit of the Indonesian government is estimated to remain within 3 percent of GDP (the maximum threshold that is set by the government). Last Saturday (22/06), the price of gasoline was raised by 44 percent to IDR 6,000 and the price of diesel by 22 percent to IDR 5,500 despite widespread protests across the country.

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After a long plenary session on Monday (17/06), Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) and the government have agreed to the revised 2013 State Budget (APBN-P). The revision was needed as original macroeconomic assumptions began to fall out of tune with reality. Due to global and domestic conditions a number of assumptions needed to revised down. Most controversial decision that was taken is the increase in price of subsidized fuel by 44 percent to IDR 6,500 (USD $0.66) per liter.

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Late on Monday evening (17/06), the increase in the price of subsidized fuel, as stated in Law No. 19/2012, was approved by Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) through a voting session as political parties could not agree collectively on the price hike as well as on cash programs for the poor to mitigate effects of the higher fuel price. Demonstrations against the price hike were staged in various regions. In Medan (North Sumatra), Jambi (Central Sumatra) and Ternate (North Moluccas), it led to clashes between the police force and protestors.

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Fuel demand in Indonesia already reached 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd). However, oil refining capacity only stands around 1.1 million bpd, implying that 43 percent of fuel consumption in Indonesia needs to be imported from abroad. Oil refining capacity today is roughly the same as it was 15 years ago, meaning that there has been limited progress in development of Indonesia's downstream oil industry. Without adding refining capacity, Indonesia is on track to become the world's largest fuel importer within the next decade.

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Because we have received quite some questions about Indonesia's cost recovery scheme in the oil and gas industry, we decided to devote an article to this topic. Simply put, the oil recovery scheme that the Indonesian government applies in the upstream oil and gas industry concerns the reimbursement of exploration and production costs to oil and gas contractors. This should make oil and gas exploration in Indonesia more attractive and thus stop the two-decade long decline in the nation's oil output.

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The government of Indonesia proposes to cut the state revenue target by IDR 88 trillion (approx. USD $6.5 billion) in the Revised 2016 State Budget. Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro announced the government has sent the proposal to the House of Representatives’ Budget Committee (Banggar) on Thursday (02/06). Expectations of lower government revenue is the result of weaker-than-estimated tax collection, the lower-than-initially-assumed Indonesian crude oil price as well as the lower-than- estimated oil and gas production in Indonesia.

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There is few interest from the private sector to participate in Indonesia's oil & gas block tenders. Besides Indonesia's unconducive investment climate (that includes weak government management, bureaucracy, an unclear regulatory framework and legal uncertainty), low global petroleum prices have also managed to curb investors' enthusiasm. In a bid to entice private investors the Indonesian government has decided to change the concept for oil & gas tenders in 2016 from a fixed revenue split to an open bid split scheme.

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Elnusa is an Indonesian company that provides services in the upstream oil & gas sector. Although the oil & gas sector has been plagued by low prices, thus curtailing corporate earnings, there is something that makes Elnusa's position strong. Recently, Elnusa purchased a seismic vessel that can be used for marine seismic surveys for oil & gas exploration. In Indonesia only a few companies have the skills and equipment for marine seismic activities (and only a few companies have a seismic vessel). Moreover, Elnusa's new vessel is a modern one that is equipped to conduct high quality surveys in deep sea.

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Indonesian President Joko Widodo (often called Jokowi) emphasized that the government of Indonesia needs to boost development of renewable energy. Although Indonesia contains huge potential for renewable energy (particularly geothermal energy), the share of renewable energy in Indonesia’s total energy use currently stands at around 5 percent only, the remainder being fossil energy. By providing incentives, attractive tariffs and an easier licensing and registration process, the government can generate more investment in this sector.

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Indonesia’s crude oil production is expected to increase starting from mid-March 2015 as new oil fields will start to come online this month, including the Bukit Tua oil field (part of the Ketapang block in East Java and which is operated by Petronas Carigali). Over the past two decades Indonesia oil output has declined drastically amid maturing oil fields and the lack of exploration as well as other investments in Indonesia’s oil & gas sector. In 2014, Indonesia produced an average of 794,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd).

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Indonesia is facing the risk of becoming a net importer of energy by 2019 as the nation’s energy demand will reach 6.19 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) whereas the domestic energy supply will only reach 6.04 million boepd by that year. Provided that the economy of Indonesia remains expanding at a pace of +5 percent (year-on-year) while investments in energy exploration do not rise accordingly, Southeast Asia’s largest economy will become dependent on foreign energy supplies.

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The government of Indonesia plans to add new fuel refineries soon after such development has been postponed for many years. Today, Indonesia's total of oil refineries have roughly the same combined production capacity as a decade ago, indicating that limited progress has been made. In fact, domestic oil output has experienced a steady downward trend for almost two decades due to a lack of exploration and investments amid weak government management, bureaucracy, an unclear regulatory framework and legal uncertainty.

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Speculation has emerged that Indonesian President-elect Joko Widodo (Jokowi) plans to raise prices of subsidized fuels immediately after taking office in late October 2014. On Tuesday (02 /09), Jokowi said that he sees no other option than to raise these prices in an effort to relieve the budget deficit, curb the wide current account deficit and make more funds available for long-term productive public investments (such as on infrastructure, healthcare and education). The government has set aside IDR 291.1 trillion (USD $25 billion) for fuel subsidies in 2015.

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