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6 June 2025 (closed)
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In the present, it has become particularly interesting to take a look at trade flows as the US import tariffs (announced by President Donald Trump on 2 April 2025) could cause the restructuring, or reshaping, of international trade.
Albeit still at an admirable level, Indonesia’s economic growth rate fell slightly short of expectations in the third quarter of 2024 (Q3-2024). Based on the data released by Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) on 5 November 2024, Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 4.95 percent year-on-year (y/y) in Q3-2024.
In July 2024, Indonesia saw its narrowest trade surplus since May 2023 as imports rebounded quite impressively. Fortunately, Indonesian exports also performed well in July 2024. If not, it would have meant an end to Indonesia’s trade surplus streak that has been ongoing for 51 successive months.
Although the trade performance of Indonesia was not as good as one month earlier, it is positive that its exports and imports experienced an increase (in value) in June 2024 compared to the same month one year ago.
Before we discuss Indonesia’s May 2024 trade data, we first need to go back to the previous month as Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) made a significant revision to the country’s April 2024 import data.
Indonesia enjoyed another great USD $3.56 billion trade surplus in April 2024. But unfortunately the nation’s exports and imports both dropped on a month-on-month (m/m) basis. However, that was in line with our expectations as trade was disrupted by the end of the Ramadan month and the subsequent Idul Fitri celebrations (which meant a week-long holiday for Indonesia).
Indonesia collected a USD $2.01 billion trade surplus in January 2024, which is the smallest surplus in six months (July 2023) for Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Key reason is that Indonesia’s non-oil and gas exports showed a relatively steep decline compared to non-oil and gas exports in the preceding month and in the same month one year earlier. So, Indonesia’s export performance remains under some pressure.
Although Indonesia enjoyed another comfortable trade surplus in November 2023, the surplus ranks among its weakest in 2023 as exports dipped, while imports were rather stable. The latest trade surplus, which is the country’s 43rd consecutive trade surplus, reached a value of USD $2.41 billion.
Indonesia posted a strong USD $3.12 billion trade surplus in August 2023. It is the 40th consecutive month of trade surpluses for Southeast Asia’s biggest economy, an indication that global commodity prices (particularly coal and palm oil, which are the key non-oil and gas export items of Indonesia) remain at lucrative levels.
In July 2023 we saw a relatively modest trade surplus for Indonesia at USD $1.31 billion, down heavily from USD $3.45 billion in the previous month when it was the weak import performance that allowed Southeast Asia’s largest economy to enjoy a wide trade surplus.
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The trade surplus of Indonesia widened in September 2017 as export growth outpaced import growth. Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced on Monday (16/10) that the nation's trade balance showed a USD $1.76 billion surplus in September, higher than analysts' forecasts and slightly higher than the USD $1.72 billion surplus in the preceding month.
In the second half of 2017 the number of imported fruit in Indonesian supermarkets and markets has fallen rather drastically. This is mainly caused by Indonesian government regulation and performance. Firstly, the government has been eager to limit imports of tropical fruit (since 2012). Secondly, the Trade Ministry was slow in issuing import approval permits (in Indonesia: Surat Persetujuan Impor, or SPI). Hence, imports of foreign fruit tumbled.
The Indonesian government is currently studying the opportunities and challenges with regard to the making of a new bilateral trade deal with the USA. These efforts are a side-effect of US Vice President Mike Pence's recent visit to Indonesia when he signed 11 trade and investment deals worth a combined USD $10 billion.
Indonesia's balance of payments registered a deficit in the first quarter of 2016. Based on the latest data from Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), the deficit stood at USD $287 million in Q1-2016, down from a USD $1.3 billion surplus in the same quarter last year. The balance of payments deficit was the result of the nation's Q1-2016 capital and financial transaction surpluses (USD $4.17 billion) not being able to cover the current account deficit (CAD). Indonesia's Q1-2016 CAD shrank to USD $4.67 billion, or 2.14 percent of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP).
The Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) believes that the economy of Indonesia will benefit if the government decides to participate in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) because this free trade deal would make the Indonesian economy more efficient and makes Indonesian exports more competitive. However, Philip Vermonte, Executive Director of CSIS, said a comprehensive study on the matter is yet to be carried out. Others remain concerned about a possible huge rise in imports into Indonesia if Southeast Asia's largest economy would join the TPP deal.
Indonesia's current account deficit eased to USD $4.01 billion, or 1.86 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), in the third quarter of 2015. The central bank (Bank Indonesia) said this improvement is particularly caused by a stronger non-oil & gas trade balance. However, Indonesia's capital and financial account surplus declined to USD $1.2 billion, causing the balance of payments deficit to widen to USD $4.6 billion from USD $2.9 billion in the preceding quarter.
Indonesia has always been hesitant to join free-trade deals with other nations on fears that domestic industries cannot compete with foreign counterparts, which could lead to an influx of cheaper, yet higher-quality foreign products. During his visit to the White House, Indonesian President Joko Widodo said Indonesia intends to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal. Back home, this statement led to concern. What are the negative consequences for Indonesia when joining this deal?
Indonesia posted a USD $1.02 billion trade surplus in September 2015, higher than analysts' estimates and up from a revised USD $328 million trade surplus recorded in the preceding month. It was the tenth consecutive monthly trade surplus for Indonesia. However, the country's September trade surplus is primarily the result of rapidly declining imports, reflecting weak investment growth and weak consumption in Southeast Asia's largest economy.
For most of this year, the Indonesian rupiah has met selling pressure against the US Dollar. Year-to-date price activity in the USD/IDR shows a rise from below IDR 12,250 to new highs above IDR 13,330 per US dollar. For Indonesian export companies, this is great news as it means that their products will be cheaper for foreign consumers to buy. For the domestic economy, this creates a different set of implications as it also makes it less likely that foreign investors will be looking to buy into Indonesian assets.
Since late 2011 Indonesia has been plagued by a structural current account deficit (CAD) that has worried both policymakers and (foreign) investors. Despite Indonesian authorities having implemented policy reforms and economic adjustments in recent years, the country’s CAD remains little-changed in 2015. The World Bank and Bank Indonesia both expect the CAD to persist at slightly below 3 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015, alarmingly close to the boundary that separates a sustainable from an unsustainable deficit.
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