The Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) conducted a trial of its new one-stop integrated service on Thursday (15/01). This soft launch was attended by various Indonesian ministers. The introduction of the one-stop service aims to attract more (foreign) investment as it speeds up licensing procedures. Currently, Indonesia is characterized by a high degree of bureaucracy resulting in a lengthy licensing process as investors need to obtain permits from various ministries as well as local government institutions.

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After the World Bank released a rather gloomy forecast for global economic growth on Tuesday (13/01) while crude oil prices continue to fall, global commodity prices have become under pressure on Wednesday’s trading day. In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank said that the global economy will grow 3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2015, down from its previous estimate of 3.4 percent (y/y). Its growth forecast for economic growth in 2016 was also revised down from 3.5 percent (y/y) to 3.3 percent.

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Indonesia’s Chief Economics Minister Sofyan Djalil said that Indonesia will further reduce prices of low-octane gasoline and subsidized diesel at the end of this month as global oil prices continue to fall (touching five-year lows). On 1 January 2015, the Indonesian government had already removed subsidy for widely-used low-octane gasoline (premium), while a fixed subsidy scheme was introduced for diesel (solar) meaning that the government now provides a subsidy of IDR 1,000 (USD $0.08) per liter of diesel.

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Global oil prices fell on Wednesday - with US oil declining to a new four-year low - amid expectation that the OPEC will not take significant action in response to the declining oil prices. The price of benchmark US light sweet crude or West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery in January fell USD $0.40 to USD $73.69 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest price level since September 2010, while the European benchmark, Brent crude for January delivery fell USD $0.58 to USD $77.75 a barrel in London trading.

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After weeks of uncertainty, Indonesian President Joko Widodo announced on Monday (17/11) that prices of subsidized fuels (gasoline and diesel) are to be raised by IDR 2,000 (USD $0.16) per liter starting from midnight. Gasoline (premium) is to be raised from IDR 6,500 to IDR 8,500 per liter, while diesel will be raised from IDR 5,500 to IDR 7,500 per liter. Earlier it was speculated that an IDR 3,000 per liter price hike would be announced. However, as global oil prices have declined sharply, this was considered an unnecessary burden for the people.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced today (after the Board of Governors’ meeting) that it keeps the benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent. The lending facility rate and the deposit rate are maintained at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Bank Indonesia, said that interest rates were maintained as the country’s current account deficit narrowed to 3.07 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2014.

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The government of Indonesia will soon decide on the future of the Mahakam oil and gas block in East Kalimantan. The existing contracts to operate the block will expire in 2017 and therefore the government needs to make a decision about the future operator(s). The current operators of the Mahakam block are Total E&P Indonesia (subsidiary of France-based oil and gas giant Total S.A.) and Japanese oil company Inpex Corporation. Both companies have a 50 percent stake in the Mahakam block.

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Indonesia’s seventh president Joko Widodo, who will take office on 20 October 2014, wants to conduct several reforms in Indonesia’s energy sector in an attempt to combat illegal practices and optimize state income. Firstly, Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, plans to audit operations of state-owned Pertamina’s energy trading unit Petral to halt alleged fuel smuggling and corruption. Secondly, Jokowi wants to impose major changes at Pertamina. Lastly, the president-elect wants to curb coal exports to ensure domestic supplies for power plants.

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Indonesia may achieve its oil target of 900,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) in 2015 as the Banyu Urip field in Cepu (East Java) is expected to start production in February next year. Indonesian upstream oil and gas regulator SKKMigas stated that the oil field has now been completed for 92.5 percent. The oilfield’s early production facility is already producing 30,000 bpd. This is expected to increase to 165,000 bpd once production has reached its peak in mid-2015. This peak level is estimated to last for three years.

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Indonesian newspaper Investor Daily reported in today’s edition (11/09) that Joko Widodo (who will become Indonesia’s 7th president on 20 October 2014) plans to raise prices of subsidized fuel in November or December 2014. Reportedly, the price of gasoline (premium) will be raised by IDR 1,000 (USD $0.08) to IDR 7,500 (USD $0.64) per liter and the price of diesel (solar) by IDR 1,000 as well to become IDR 6,500 (USD $0.55) per liter. Meanwhile Widodo will enhance the social safety net to protect the poor.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.62 percent to IDR 11,893 per US dollar on Tuesday (17/06), a four-month low. The main reason behind this poor performance is increased concern about the impact of violence in northern Iraq - namely higher global oil prices - on Indonesia’s trade and budget deficits as Indonesia subsidises a significant amount of domestic fuels). As oil and gas imports accounted for about 23 percent of total imports of Indonesia in April 2014.

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In the past week, the global crude oil price has increased considerably due to geopolitical tensions in Iraq which can disturb oil supplies from the Middle East. Up to the end of 2014, provided that no exceptional developments occur, the oil price is expected to range between USD $105-110 per barrel. Meanwhile, the Indonesian government announced that, despite the higher oil price putting pressure on the government’s budget balance, it will not increase prices of subsidized fuels this year.

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General Director of Oil and Gas at the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Edy Hermantoro said at the 38th IPA Convention and Exhibition on Friday (23/05) that the Indonesian government plans to tender a total of 21 blocks of oil and gas in a first bidding round in 2014. This involves 13 conventional oil and gas blocks and eight non-conventional (shale) oil and gas blocks. The government expects that these oil and gas blocks will add 3.5 billion barrels of oil and 107.7 trillion cubic (tcf) of gas resources.

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Although Indonesia is the world's largest archipelago, contains an abundance of commodities and has the world's fourth-largest population, the country's export and import figures are still small compared to the world's leading exporting and importing countries (see table below). There are many - and much smaller - countries that post much more impressive import and export data. In terms of exports, Indonesia is too dependent on commodities (accounting for around 60 percent of all exports) causing problems in times of price downswings.

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Imports of oil will accelerate to 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2020 if fuels continue to be subsidized by the Indonesian government. This development will seriously burden Indonesia's trade balance (and current account). In 2013, Indonesia posted a trade deficit of USD $12.6 billion in the oil & gas sector. Due to improved performance in the non-oil & gas sector, the overall trade deficit was kept at USD $4.06 billion. Besides placing downward pressure on the rupiah exchange rate, expensive subsidies also burden the state budget.

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Indonesia has the potential to become a global force in the biodiesel industry because of the country’s position as the world’s top producer of crude palm oil (CPO). In 2014, Indonesia’s CPO production is estimated to total 30 million tons. Traditionally, Indonesia exports about 75 percent of its total CPO production, particularly to the giant economies of China and India. As such, this commodity is one of Indonesia's most important foreign exchange earners, apart from coal, in the non-oil and gas sector.

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Fitch Ratings, one of the three major global credit rating agencies, estimates that Indonesia's current account deficit will reach USD $27.4 billion, equivalent to 3.1 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014. As such, Fitch Ratings' forecast is more pessimistic than forecasts presented by both Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) and government. Both these institutions expect to curb the current account deficit below the three percent of GDP mark (a sustainable level). Global investors continue to carefully monitor the deficit.

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The government of Indonesia will revise its crude oil production target in 2014 to 820 thousand barrels per day (bpd), down from its previous target of 870 thousand bpd. The main reasons for this downgrade are the country's mature oil fields in combination with a lack of exploration as well as other investments in this sector. Indonesia, once an important oil exporting country and member of the OPEC, has seen its oil output decline drastically over the last decade, thus becoming a net importer as the country's domestic consumption continues to rise.

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the October 2013 edition, a number of important issues that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt:

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Usage of biodiesel for transportation in Indonesia is expected to reach 7.2 million kiloliter by 2015, a sharp increase from 600,000 kiloliter in the first nine months of 2013. State-owned Pertamina is expected to supply the extra 6.6 million kiloliter of biodiesel. The reason why the Indonesian government is eager to develop palm-based biofuel for transportation purposes is to reduce the country's reliance on the import of expensive diesel fuel. Imports of fuels and gas are the foremost reason that Indonesia is coping with a wide current account deficit.

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