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Latest Reports COVID-19
The Indonesian rupiah rate, which had been under extreme pressure amid the start of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis in March 2020, rebounded in April 2020 and continued this rebound throughout May 2020 (albeit at a less impressive pace).
As expected, Indonesia’s manufacturing activity contracted again in May 2020, albeit at a slightly slower pace. The latest IHS Markit Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (or PMI) rose to a reading of 28.6 points in May 2020, up from the all-time low of 27.5 in April 2020. A reading below 50.0 indicates contraction in the country’s manufacturing activity, while a reading above 50.0 indicates expansion.
Indonesia’s inflation rate was unusually mild in May 2020. According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the country’s consumer price index (CPI) stood at 0.07 percent month-on-month (m/m) only.
Most companies and industries have been under huge pressure since the Indonesian government imposed a range of restrictions (specifically on people’s movement and business activities) in an effort to curb the further spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). As most companies experience a massive decline in sales, it has become difficult for these companies to finance their operating costs and expenses. And, the longer the restrictions last, the bigger companies’ financial burdens become.
On Wednesday (03/06/2020) Indonesia Investments released the May 2020 edition of its monthly report. In this edition, titled 'in the Eye of the Storm', we focus specifically on the social implications of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis on Indonesian society. Hence, unemployment and poverty are two topics that deserve specific attention.
Last month we basically came to the conclusion that the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has a direct (short-term) positive effect on Indonesia’s trade performance (although the longer term consequences are clearly negative) as Indonesia managed to boost exports (possibly because it filled the gap left by China’s lockdown), while imports into Indonesia fell markedly (partly because of the lower need for inputs for export-oriented output), thus leading to a comfortable trade surplus.
For Muslims the holy fasting month (Ramadan) and subsequent Eid al-Fitr (Idul Fitri or Lebaran) festivities – the traditional week-long national holiday when Muslims celebrate the end of the Ramadan month – are very special and joyful times.
On Monday 20 April 2020 the Investment Coordinating Board (in Indonesian: Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal, or BKPM), a government agency, released the latest direct investment data, involving foreign and domestic direct investment in the first quarter of 2020.
Never before did Indonesia’s manufacturing activity collapse so badly in the nine-year history of the IHS Markit Indonesia Manufacturing PMI than in April 2020. The IHS Markit Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) plunged to a reading of 27.5 in April 2020 (from 45.3 in the preceding month). It is not only the steepest fall but also the lowest level of operating conditions ever touched since the survey started back in April 2011.
As expected, Indonesia’s inflation rate was quite low in April 2020. According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the consumer price index (CPI) stood at 0.08 percent month-on-month (m/m) in April.
Latest Columns COVID-19
The past year has been hectic. The global COVID-19 pandemic arrived, a worldwide recession followed; US-China turmoil continued, while geopolitical and geo-economic tensions are rising across the world. And all these matters seem interrelated. So, how is Indonesia doing amid these developments? And, how do they exactly impact on Indonesia's economy and society? It is time to sit down with Indonesia Investments' Managing Director Richard van der Schaar to hear his thoughts on these matters.
Across the world, concern over the COVID-19 pandemic grew in September 2020 as the number of new COVID-19 cases continued to rise rapidly. Worldwide, at the end of September 2020, some 34 million people have been infected with the virus, while more than one million people have died after contracting the virus.
On 05 August 2020, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) data for the second quarter of 2020. These data, which were highly anticipated among analysts and policymakers, are crucial to comprehend how – and to what extend – the self-imposed social and business restrictions (made in response to the COVID-19 pandemic) have impacted on the Indonesian economy.
Across the globe governments and pharmaceutical companies are busy working on a vaccine to make people immune against the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Having the availability of a reliable vaccine would be a solution because COVID-19 seems to spread quite easily, while the majority of the world's population remains vulnerable to the virus.
For the second consecutive month Indonesia recorded a big trade surplus. According to the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS), the country posted a USD $1.27 billion trade surplus in June 2020.
Good news at the start of July 2020. The World Bank upgraded Indonesia’s economic status to an ‘upper-middle income country’ (from ‘lower-middle income country’) per 1 July 2020. The key consideration for the World Bank was that Indonesia’s gross national income (GNI) per capita increased from USD $3,840 in 2018 to USD $4,050 in 2019. This means that an upgrade was needed (see the table below).
It is becoming clearer by the day that economic growth in Indonesia, in 2020, will be derailed enormously. Analysts and authoritative institutions (both international and domestic ones) have, again, cut their forecasts for Indonesia’s economic growth in Q2-2020 (decisions that obviously also have consequences for Indonesia’s full-year 2020 economic growth outlooks).
Indonesia’s digital economy is very promising. Near the end of 2019, Google and Singaporean wealth fund Temasek revised their projection for Indonesia's Internet economy (upwards) to reach USD $133 billion, in total value, by 2025. This would be a big jump from the value of around USD $40 billion in 2019.
The most recent published outlooks for global economic growth and global trade are more pessimistic than their earlier versions, with the main reason being that there is no quick solution to the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis. On the contrary, there is a high degree of uncertainty about when business can resume as usual. And, the closer we get to 2021, the less rosy outlooks are becoming for next year.
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has a wide range of economic and social consequences. For example, the Indonesian economy is likely to contract this year (for the first time since 1998), while millions of Indonesians have lost their jobs over the past three months, and the majority of the country’s enterprises have seen their sales plunge.
