Today (06/11), Statistics Indonesia announced that Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 5.62 percent in the third quarter of 2013 from the same period in 2012. The result implies the continuation of Indonesia's slowing economic growth as Q3-2013 constitutes the fifth consecutive quarter in which the country recorded slowing economic growth. Previously, the government had already expressed its concern about the GDP growth figure in Q3-2013 because the current high inflation rate curbs household consumption.

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Perry Warjiyo, Deputy Governor of Indonesia's Central Bank (Bank Indonesia), expects that the inflation rate in October 2013 will fall below 0.26 percent (which is the average October inflation rate since 2007). Warjiyo said that a survey of Bank Indonesia indicated that up to the third week of October, inflation had only reached 0.06 percent. Low inflation - or preferably deflation - is needed to curb Indonesia's current high inflation rate. In September 2013, annual inflation was recorded at 8.40 percent.

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Moody's Investors Service, one of the big credit rating agencies, stated in its 'Credit Analysis: Indonesia' report that - despite the ongoing current account deficit (which is considered to be structural) and a relatively shallow and volatile domestic capital market (which contributes to Indonesia’s reliance on external funding) - the agency is positive about Indonesia's outlook due to its growth prospects, narrow fiscal deficits and low public debt. Indonesian government bonds are rated at Baa3, which is Moody's lowest investment-grade status.

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Indonesia’s foreign debt was recorded at USD $257.30 billion in August 2013, a 0.9 decrease compared to foreign debt in July 2013 (USD $259.61 billion). On an annual basis (yoy), foreign debt growth in August was 6.6 percent, thus slowing compared to July’s growth of 7.4 percent (yoy). The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) considers that the slowing growth in the country's foreign debt is in line with the slowing growth of the domestic economy. Indonesia's GDP growth forecast has been revised down to below the six percent mark.

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The Rating and Investment Information Inc (R&I), a rating agency from Japan, kept Indonesia’s Sovereign Credit Rating at BBB- with a stable outlook. In their press release, R&I stated that the four key factors behind the decision are: (a) Indonesia’s capacity to achieve sustainable economic growth in the long term (at around six percent per year); (b) conservative fiscal management (causing a marginal fiscal deficit); (c) a sound banking sector; and (d) a low level of government debt.

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A senior official at Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) stated that the country's current account deficit is expected to ease to 2.5 - 2.7 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) by 2014. In the second quarter of 2013, the account deficit reached USD $9.8 billion or 4.4 percent of GDP in Q2-2013, an alarmingly high figure that has caused much concern among the investor community. This deficit is particularly brought on by a large deficit in the country's oil & gas sector in combination with strong domestic demand for imports.

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Indonesia’s economy continues to adjust, as weaker commodity prices, tighter international financing, and slowing domestic demand moderate the growth rate to 5.6 percent for 2013. This downward revision is discussed in the latest edition of the World Bank’s Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ). Further moderation of growth (at 5.3 percent) may be expected in 2014, with growth in high income economies firming but international market conditions likely remaining volatile.

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Today, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released Indonesia's export and import figures for the month August 2013. Exports in August amounted to USD $13.16 billion, implying a 12.77 percent decline compared to exports in July 2013, or a 6.31 decline year-on-year. Imports in August 2013 amounted to USD $13.03 billion, a 25.20 percent fall compared to the previous month, or a 5.69 percent fall year-on-year. As such, Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of USD $130 million in August.

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Indonesia's construction industry, which accounts for about ten percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), is experiencing turbulent times as the sector is impacted upon by three issues, namely higher minimum wages, higher subsidized fuel prices as well as the depreciating rupiah (against the US dollar). Concerns have arisen that a number of projects cannot be finished due to these issues. Moreover, companies may feel forced to dimiss workers in order to keep a healthy financial balance sheet.

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Growth of Indonesia's foreign debt has slowed down in July 2013 according to data from Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia). Total foreign debt in July 2013 stood at USD $259.54 billion, a 7.3 percent increase compared to the same month in 2012. In June 2013, the year on year growth had been 8 percent. Bank Indonesia stated that it considers Indonesia's current foreign debt situation - both in the private and public sector - as healthy. Growth has slowed down as a consequence of the slowing national economy.

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In line with expectations, the economic growth rate of Indonesia was recorded at the level of 5.04 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2025. This is a good result as it slightly exceeded analyst expectations (in our case, we had projected a 5 percent y/y growth rate), and was also a faster growth pace than the one recorded by Indonesia in the same quarter one year earlier (4.95 percent y/y).

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In another article in this report we discuss the remarkable discrepancy between the strong (official) gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 5.12 percent year-on-year (y/y) in Q2-2025 and Indonesia’s somewhat lackluster macroeconomic data in that same quarter. This discrepancy not only surprised many, but it also made many a bit suspicious about the accuracy of the Q2-2025 GDP data that were released by the Statistical Agency of Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS).

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Those who follow our reports might be aware that we’ve been unable to obtain data regarding the foreign visitor arrivals into Indonesia since the start of 2025. The main problem seems to be that the publication of foreign tourism-related data has moved from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) to the Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy. But, unfortunately, this ministry hasn’t released any data (related to foreign visitors in 2025) on its website (yet).

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The economic growth rate of Indonesia in the first quarter of 2025 (Q1-2025) came in slightly below our projection of 4.9 – 5.0 percent year-on-year (y/y). But, indeed, we had already detected a (general) weakening in internal and external conditions, which was reflected in the macroeconomic data of Indonesia that we discussed in our April 2025 report. And so, it was certainly not a shock.

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Indonesia’s economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 was slightly better than we had anticipated. Just prior to the release of Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) data on 5 February 2025 (by Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS), we revised our outlook for Indonesia’s Q4-2024 economic growth from 5.0 percent year-on-year (y/y) to the range of 4.9–5.0 percent (y/y) due to a number of weaker-than-estimated macroeconomic data.

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We are gradually approaching the first 100 days in office of the new administration in Indonesia (under the leadership of President Prabowo Subianto). Does that show in the latest economic indicators?

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As usual, we devote one article to the latest available (key) macroeconomic data in an effort to assess the state of the Indonesian economy. In the previous article in this month’s report, we discussed the 4.95 percent year-on-year (y/y) GDP growth rate of Indonesia in Q3-2024. In the article you are reading right now, we’re going to take a closer look whether the country’s economic growth can accelerate (or decelerate) in the last quarter of the year.

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On Friday (06 December 2024), Indonesia Investments released the November 2024 edition of its monthly report. It zooms in on the most relevant economic, social and political developments that occured in Indonesia in the month of November 2024.

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Before we zoom in on Indonesia, it is worth taking a closer look at the latest reports released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In its World Economic Outlook (released in October 2024), the IMF stated that global economic growth is expected to remain stable, yet underwhelming, at 3.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2024.

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As usual, we look at the latest available macroeconomic data of Indonesia to assess the strength of the national economy. Those who follow this monthly article should know that we are quite optimistic about the Indonesian economy as the majority of data are showing positive trends.

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