In line with expectations, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis-points to the range of 0.75 - 1.00 percent on Wednesday (15/03). It was the Fed's third rate hike in the past 15 months. As this hike had already been expected by basically all market participants it was more important to learn the Fed's stance on the pace and number of further rate hikes in 2017. On this matter Fed Chief Janet Yellen remained rather dovish, saying any further hikes in 2017 would be gradual. Wall Street now expects to see two more hikes in 2017.

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Ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting (14-15 March) investor sentiment remains subdued with thin trade in Asia's stock markets. Most, if not all, market participants expect the Fed to raise its benchmark Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points supported by recently strong US jobs reports. The main questions now are whether the US rate hike is already priced in (in markets) or will we see big (yet temporary) capital outflows from emerging markets, including Indonesia? And secondly, will the Fed raise its interest rate environment faster than expected in the remainder of 2017?

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is also among the many institutions or market participants that expect the Federal Reserve to raise its Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points at the coming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (14-15 March 2017). This move should put some temporary pressure on the Indonesian rupiah (as Indonesia will most likely see capital outflows) and therefore Bank Indonesia sees few to none room for additional monetary easing in Southeast Asia's largest economy in the remainder of this year.

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Ahead of looming higher interest rates in the USA, Indonesia's financial authorities seem confident that the impact of tightening US monetary policy on Indonesia's capital markets will be controlled as Indonesia's economic fundamentals are solid, while the nation's central bank (Bank Indonesia) and government are ready to step in to stabilize the rupiah exchange rate or the pace of capital flows, if needed.

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Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.32 percent to 5,391.21 points on Friday (03/03), while the Indonesian rupiah depreciated 0.19 percent to IDR 13,383 against the US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). The performance of Indonesian stocks and the currency was in line with the performance of its counterparts in Asia. Asian shares were tracking losses on Wall Street overnight where profit-taking kicked in as US indices have been in rally-mode since Donald Trump won the presidential election in November 2016.

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Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) surged 1.06 percent to 5,421.54 points shortly before closing on Thursday (02/03) as most Asian stock indices were in the green zone, lifted by the performance of Wall Street overnight. Indonesian stocks were actually the best performing stocks across Asia today. To explain why Indonesian stocks performed so well today, we need to look first at US stocks' performance overnight. It is all related to Trump's latest speech.

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Despite US dollar strength amid promised tax cuts in the USA and looming higher US interest rates, the Indonesian rupiah is not expected to depreciate as much as its Asian counterparts according to the DBS Bank. On Wednesday (01/03) the rupiah weakened 0.19 percent to IDR 13,363 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). So far this year, however, the rupiah has strengthened nearly one percent against the greenback.

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Based on the minutes of the Federal Reserve's January policy meeting the US central bank will have a cautious approach when it comes to interest rate hikes. Fed officials agreed that a rate hike should occur fairly soon, perhaps as soon as March 2017, but only in case US jobs and inflation data are in line with expectation. This outlook led to a weakening US dollar as well as stocks as investors had been anticipating a more "hawkish" tone from Fed officials.

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The Indonesian rupiah is appreciating against the US dollar on Monday (06/02). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had appreciated 0.13 percent to IDR 13,325 per US dollar by 12:15 pm local Jakarta time. It is assumed that optimism about Indonesia's improving economic fundamentals in combination with rebounding commodity prices and slower-than-expected US economic growth supports the currency of Indonesia. Meanwhile, other Asian emerging market currencies are also appreciating against the greenback.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is optimistic about economic growth of Indonesia in the foreseeable future. In its latest report the Washington-based institution says Indonesia's solid economic policies and increased household consumption support strong growth. The stronger rupiah and low inflation have caused people's purchasing power to strengthen. This is a major positive boost for the economy as household consumption accounts for more than 55 percent of total economic growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) took another dive on Wednesday (08/10). The decline was not only caused by the negative influence of declining stock indices in the USA and Europe on the previous day, triggered by the downgraded global economic growth forecast released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) but also because the market responded negatively to the voting result for the post of speaker of the People’s Consultative Assembly (or MPR).

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Bank Indonesia decided to hold the key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent in October, with the Lending Facility and Deposit Facility rates kept at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. This level is expected to help control inflation at 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4.0±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce the current account deficit to a more sustainable level. Despite stable domestic conditions, Bank Indonesia sees risks: contagion risk stemming from US monetary tightening and possible higher subsidized fuel prices.

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Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said that although the recent weakening trend of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate is in line with the performance of other Asian currencies, the central bank is prepared to intervene in the market in an effort to support the currency and keep it in a comfortable range. On Monday (06/10), Bank Indonesia Executive Director Tirta Segara already stated that foreign exchange intervention was conducted in September 2014 in order to stabilize the rupiah exchange rate.

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Technically the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, or IHSG) had to rebound after sharp declines during the last couple of trading days making Indonesian stocks relatively cheap. The IHSG was also supported by rising stock indices in Japan and Hong Kong that rose on strong US jobs data (although other Asian markets fell due to concerns about sooner-than-expected US interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, the rupiah continued to depreciate as the market is concerned about the political situation in Indonesia.

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Amid political uncertainty and a looming increase in US interest rates, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah exchange rate weakened considerably in the past week. Market participants are increasingly concerned about the situation in Indonesia’s parliament where a majority of political parties - named the Merah-Putih coalition (led by defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto) - is expected to undermine president-elect Joko Widodo’s reform programs as well as the democratic foundations of the country.

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Indonesian stocks plunged considerably on Thursday (02/10). The country’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) declined 2.73 percent to 5,000.81 points, the largest drop in almost six months. This poor performance was caused by both external and internal factors. Externally, various weak economic data from the USA and Europe as well as an appreciating yen impacted negatively on Asian stock indices. Internally, market participants responded negatively toward the inauguration of the new parliament.

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Although Indonesia’s September 2014 inflation (0.27 percent m/m) and appreciating rupiah exchange rate had a positive impact on the performance of Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) on Wednesday (01/10), its gain was limited by declining indices on Wall Street on the previous day as well as Indonesia’s August trade deficit (USD $318.1 million), which resulted in foreign net selling of worth IDR 388 billion of Indonesian stocks. The IHSG climbed 0.06 percent to 5,140.91 points.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) rose 0.18 percent to 5,142.01 points on Monday (29/09) despite the sharp depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate. Possibly market participants took advantage of relatively cheap blue chip stocks after the 1.3 percent drop on Friday (26/09) caused by negative market sentiments brought about by the parliament’s passing of a bill which abolishes direct voting of regional leaders. Foreign investors recorded net selling of IDR 542.4 billion.

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In line with the trend on other Asian stock indices, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) fell on Monday (22/09) amid profit taking after three days of gains. Not even the appreciating rupiah exchange rate and net buying of foreign investors (IDR 26.6 billion) were able to push Indonesia’s index into the green zone. The IHSG declined 0.15 percent to 5,219.80 points. All sectors on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) fell except for the consumer goods and finance sectors.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) closed 1.12 percent higher on Wednesday (17/09) supported by Tuesday’s positive stock indices on Wall Street as well as speculation that the US Federal Reserve will not raise its key interest rate yet. Today (17/09), the Federal Reserve will conclude its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Lastly, after weak economic data, it was reported that China’s central bank (PBOC) injected USD $82 billion into the country's five largest banks.

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