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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects headline inflation to reach 2.79 percent (y/y) in full-year 2015, below the central bank's target range of between 3 and 5 percent. Inflation has been low in Indonesia this year, accumulating to 2.16 percent in the first ten months of 2015, and Bank Indonesia estimates that the pace of inflation will remain controlled in the last two months of 2015.
Indonesian assets produced a strong finish on Friday (20/11). The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index and rupiah both strengthened considerably on increased certainty about the timing of higher US interest rates, while China announced it implemented more measures to encourage economic growth, giving rise to a stronger yuan (supporting stronger emerging currencies in Asia). Indonesian stocks rose 0.94 percent to 4,561.33 points, while the rupiah appreciated 1.10 percent to IDR 13,623 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index).
Total outstanding foreign debt of Indonesia fell to USD $302.4 billion at the end of the third quarter of 2015, down USD $2.1 billion from the end of the preceding quarter. The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) said both public and private external debt declined in Q3-2015 as both sectors were reluctant to take up new (overseas) debt amid global uncertainties, Indonesia's sluggish economic growth, and the fragile rupiah (ahead of looming capital outflows brought about by higher US interest rates).
Stock indices in Asia were mixed on Wednesday (18/11), while most emerging market currencies depreciated against the US dollar. The Indonesian rupiah was under pressure - touching a six week low - after the central bank (Bank Indonesia) cut the primary minimum statutory reserves from 8.00 percent to 7.50 percent (effective per 1 December 2015), hence providing local financial institutions approximately USD $1.8 billion more in liquidity. However, it may not be enough to trigger an increase in lending as banks are more focused on lending quality than quantity.
In line with other Asian stock indices, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rebounded sharply on Tuesday (17/11), boosted by the performance on Wall Street overnight where the major indices rose more than one percent. Positive sentiments are caused by a big jump in oil prices, while worries about the negative impact of the terrorist attack in Paris proved unfounded. By 11:55 am local Jakarta time, the Jakarta Composite Index was up 1.59 percent to 4,512.64 points. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah had appreciated 0.12 percent to IDR 13,732 per US dollar by the same time (Bloomberg Dollar Index).
On the first trading day after the terrorist attacks in Paris (leaving 129 people dead and hundreds injured), stocks declined in Asia as investors are cautious. Although markets had one weekend to digest the news, it is still expected that the tragedy in Paris will cause a sharp yet short-term impact on global equity markets. Apart from terrorism, volatile oil prices as well as concern about China's economy and uncertainty about the timing of a US interest rate hike continue to plague markets.
Across the world, stock indices plunged on persistent concern about lower commodity prices (especially as crude oil dived to a two-month low and may start to flirt with the USD $40 per barrel level again), concern about slowing credit growth in China, while markets are also bracing for a possible US interest rate hike in December (a move that will particularly trigger capital outflows from riskier emerging market assets). This month markets are under severe selling pressure after experiencing a rally in October.
Asian shares are facing pressures on Friday (13/11) due to lower oil prices and increasing expectation that the US Federal Reserve will raise its key Fed Fund Rate by 25 basis points in December. Resource stocks are dragging down stock indices in Australia, Hong Kong and China by more than one percent. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index, however, is bucking the trend in Asia, having risen 0.51 percent to 4,485.12 points by 10:20 am local Jakarta time amid red indices in Asia. Meanwhile, the US dollar is strengthening against Asian currencies but not as sharply as initially predicted.
Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index climbed 0.01 percent to 4,451.59 points on Wednesday (11/11) despite foreign investors recording a net sell of IDR 614.4 billion (approx. USD $45.5 million). Uncertainty persists in the global economy as more macroeconomic data from China signal weaknesses in the world's second-largest economy. Growth in output from China's factories declined to a six-month low in October (missing expectations), following earlier disappointing trade and inflation data. On the other hand, it triggers hope that Beijing will step up stimulus measures.
Most stock indices in Asia fell on Tuesday's trading day (10/11) on concern that China's stalling economy negatively impacts on the pace of global economic growth, while markets are also bracing for a looming US interest rate hike before the year-end. Moreover, sentiments in Southeast Asia are not positive as the majority of Q3-2015 earnings reports have been unfavorable. Combined, it triggers a flight to safer haven assets. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 1.08 percent to 4,451.05 points.
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During Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors it was decided on 18th August 2015 to hold the BI Rate at 7.50 percent, while maintaining the Deposit Facility rate at 5.50 percent and the Lending Facility rate at 8.00 percent. The decision is consonant with efforts to control inflation within the target corridor of 4±1 percent in 2015 and 2016. In the short term, Bank Indonesia (BI) is focused on efforts to stabilize the rupiah amid uncertainty in the global economy, by optimizing monetary operations in the rupiah and the foreign exchange market.
For most of this year, the financial media has held a generally positive tone. There have been some exceptions in cases like the Eurozone which is still mired in a deeply divided sovereign debt crisis. But for most of the world, 2015 has been a positive period in terms of general growth in their broad trends. So it might be easy for macro investors to assume that most markets are currently establishing themselves in the bullish direction.
The Indonesian rupiah touched a 17-year low as the currency continued to depreciate amid persistent bullish US dollar momentum. The rupiah weakened to IDR 13,539 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Friday (31/07). The US Commerce Department announced on Thursday (30/07) that US gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at 2.3 percent (year-on-year) in the second quarter of 2015, giving rise to heightened expectation that the US Federal Reserve will raise its key interest rate soon.
Companies active in the pharmaceutical industry of Indonesia need to find strategies to overcome sharp rupiah depreciation. Indonesia’s pharmaceutical industry is still - to a large extent - dependent on the import of raw materials, hence a weakening rupiah raises the costs of imports thus eroding profit margins. Since May 2013, when the US Federal Reserve started to hint at monetary tightening, the US dollar has experienced bullish momentum. Between the May 2013 and July 2015, the rupiah depreciated around 37 percent against the US dollar.
For most of this year, the Indonesian rupiah has met selling pressure against the US Dollar. Year-to-date price activity in the USD/IDR shows a rise from below IDR 12,250 to new highs above IDR 13,330 per US dollar. For Indonesian export companies, this is great news as it means that their products will be cheaper for foreign consumers to buy. For the domestic economy, this creates a different set of implications as it also makes it less likely that foreign investors will be looking to buy into Indonesian assets.
Since late 2011 Indonesia has been plagued by a structural current account deficit (CAD) that has worried both policymakers and (foreign) investors. Despite Indonesian authorities having implemented policy reforms and economic adjustments in recent years, the country’s CAD remains little-changed in 2015. The World Bank and Bank Indonesia both expect the CAD to persist at slightly below 3 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015, alarmingly close to the boundary that separates a sustainable from an unsustainable deficit.
When we look at the long-term activity in the Indonesian rupiah, we have seen a surprising level of strength when viewing the activity seen in recent months. This has been surprising for a few different reasons, as this is not something that can be said for markets in emerging Asia as a whole. This essentially suggests that economic activity in the region has been somewhat disjointed and that trends visible in one country cannot necessarily be expected in another. But when we look at chart activity in the rupiah itself, we can see that the broader trends have started to change over the last two months.
Both Indonesian stocks and the rupiah continued to slide on Thursday (04/06) and seem to be caught in a vicious downward spiral brought about by both domestic and international factors. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) fell 0.68 percent to close at a five-week low of 5,095.82 points, while the rupiah depreciated 0.39 percent to IDR 13,281 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index), a level last seen in the late 1990s when the country was plagued by the Asian Financial Crisis.
On the first trading day of the new week, both Indonesian stocks and the rupiah moved more-or-less sideways. Generally, indices in Southeast Asia were mixed as positive external sentiments were offset by local negative sentiments. In the case of Indonesia, negative local sentiments stemmed from the higher-than-estimated inflation figure in May and continued contraction of the manufacturing industry. Positive market sentiments stemmed from the USA where GDP growth was revised to minus 0.7 percent in Q1-2015.
Most stock markets and currencies in Southeast Asia weakened on Friday (29/05), including Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index and the rupiah. The Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.40 percent to 5,216.38 points, while the rupiah depreciated 0.01 percent to IDR 13,224 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Over the past week, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah weakened primarily due to the Greek debt crisis, looming higher US interest rates and the lack of positive domestic factors.
