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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) believes that the Indonesian government needs to make a more careful selection in terms of infrastructure development projects in order to curtail the big amount of imports that put pressure on the country's current account balance and rupiah exchange rate.
The Indonesian rupiah had been fairly stable against the US dollar since Bank Indonesia's aggressive 0.50 percent rate hike in late-June (a move that caught many by surprise). However, after the central bank of Indonesia decided to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the July policy meeting (which was concluded on Thursday, 19/07), the rupiah has become under heavy pressure again.
The current account deficit of Indonesia could widen to 2.5 percent - or more - of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2018 according to Bank Indonesia's Senior Deputy Governor Mirza Adityaswara. He added that a current account deficit below 3 percent of GDP is still in the safe zone. Dividend payouts are expected to put additional pressure on the Q2-2018 current account deficit of Indonesia.
In theory the weak rupiah makes Indonesian export products more competitive on the global market. However, when the content of those export products contain a high degree of imported raw materials, then the positive effect of a weak rupiah is disabled. And the situation is similarly complicated for those companies that import a high degree of raw materials to make products that are sold on the domestic market. They could of course simply raise retail prices. However, the consequence is that demand for the products could drop.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced that the nation's foreign exchange reserves had fallen to USD $119.8 billion (per end June 2018), thus declining USD $3.1 billion compared to the position in the preceding month. As such, the recent trend continued: Indonesia's foreign exchange assets have now fallen for five straight months after touching a record high of nearly USD $132.0 billion in January 2018 (see table below).
Risk perceptions on Indonesian debt have risen amid concerns over the fragile rupiah. So far in 2018 the Indonesian rupiah has depreciated around 6 percent against the US dollar due to US monetary tightening and simmering concerns over the outbreak of a global trade war. Waning risk perception is reflected by the rising credit default swap (CDS) of the five-year Indonesian bond.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) hiked its benchmark interest rate three times over the past six weeks - by a total of 1.00 percent to take the benchmark to the level of 5.25 percent - in order to defend the rupiah. Last Friday (27/06) Bank Indonesia surprised part of the market by implementing a 0.50 percent rate hike. As a result, the rupiah strengthened markedly. However, its impact on the rupiah performance seems very temporary. This week the rupiah is again depreciating, hovering around the IDR 14,400 per US dollar level.
As we had predicted this morning, Bank Indonesia decided to raise its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.25 percent at the two-day June policy meeting that was concluded earlier today. Presumably markets had been expecting a 25 bps rate hike (therefore being priced in already) and therefore the central bank of Indonesia possibly felt it had to take a more aggressive approach to defend the Indonesian rupiah that had weakened beyond the IDR 14,400 per US dollar level.
The Indonesian rupiah continues to slide on Friday (29/06) and is now hovering around the IDR 14,400 per US dollar level. The weak rupiah reaffirms analysts' expectations of seeing another interest rate hike. Today, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) will conclude its June policy meeting. But perhaps the crucial question is not "will Bank Indonesia raise its benchmark rate?" Possibly the more crucial questions are "by how much will it raise its rate?" and "what other policies will it implement to strengthen rupiah stability as well as financial stability?"
Asian stocks and emerging market currencies continue to be under pressure on Thursday morning (28/06) amid uncertainty regarding US authorities' stance on Chinese investment in US tech companies, ongoing concerns over the impact of simmering global trade woes on economic growth, and rising crude oil prices. However, as we approach the lunch break there are some signs of a rebound in Asian markets.
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After it was reported that Garuda Indonesia, Indonesia's state-controlled national air carrier, postponed its rights issue, the company stated that it highly doubts an initial public offering (IPO) of its subsidiary Garuda Maintenance Facility (GMF) AeroAsia on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in 2013. The reason for this postponement is current lingering uncertainty that plagues emerging markets, including Indonesia, since May 2013. Uncertainty about the future of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program led to a large outflow of foreign funds.
After a strong performance yesterday, the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) fell 0.10 percent to 4,517.62 points on Tuesday (17/09). Part of the investor community grabbed their chance to engage in profit taking after yesterday's gain but most investors are careful and reluctant to make any major decision prior to the result of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting (17-18 September). It is expected that after this meeting there will be more clarity about the future of the Fed's quantitative easing program.
Rising indices on Wall Street at the end of last week were a major factor behind rising stock indices in Asia, including Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG), on Monday (16/09). For market players this development was a sign to enter the market. Moreover, expectation has emerged that the Federal Reserve will not take any drastic decisions in the FOMC meeting (on 17-18 September) regarding its quantitative easing program. This expectation has calmed down markets. Indonesia's IHSG rose 3.35 percent to 4,522.54 points.
Last week, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) climbed 7.3 percent to end at 4,375.53 on Friday (13/09). This growth is remarkable as it remains unknown what the Federal Reserve will do with its quantitative easing program (QE3). The next Fed meeting - scheduled for 17-18 September - is expected to provide more clarity regarding this matter. Positive sentiments that lifted the IHSG were Indonesia's slightly increased foreign exchange reserves, its stable rupiah after another BI rate hike, and the Bilateral Swap Deals (BSA) with Japan and China.
Despite concerns that Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) would weaken on Thursday's trading day (12/09), the index ended 0.17 percent up to 4,356.61 points. Indices on Wall Street and in Asia impacted positively on the IHSG and kept foreign investors increasing their stock portfolios in Indonesia. Moreover, the Bank Indonesia's decision to raise the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) by 25 basis points to 7.25 percent was generally well-received by investors. Banking stocks helped to support the IHSG.
It was decided at the Board of Governors’ meeting (RDG) of Bank Indonesia on 12 September 2013 to raise the BI Rate by 25 bps to 7.25%, the rate on the Lending Facility by 25 bps to 7.25% and the rate on the Deposit Facility by 25 bps to 5.50%. This action forms part of the follow-up measures taken to reinforce the policy mix instituted by Bank Indonesia, which focuses on controlling inflation, stabilizing the rupiah exchange rate and ensuring the current account deficit is managed to a sustainable level.
According to data from the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), domestic cement sales have fallen 5.8 percent to 3.3 million tons in August 2013 (from the same month last year). Being an important indicator of economic expansion (as cement sales inform about the development of property and infrastructure projects in the country), these lower cement sales confirm the slowing pace of economic growth in Indonesia. Compared to July 2013, cement sales in Indonesia fell by a massive 32 percent.
Without any real negative global reasons, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) was down 0.20 percent to 4,349.42 points. Apparently, market participants were looking for profit taking after the index rose sharply in the last couple of days. There may also have been the psychological influence of the gaps at 4,191-4,225 and 4,072-4,102 that still need to be closed. Will the IHSG close these? Compared to the general upward trend of Asian indices, it seems strange if the IHSG would deviate from this trend only to close the gaps.
Good economic data from China and Japan made many Asian stock indices go into green territory, including Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) which gained 3.98 percent to close at 4,358.14 points on Tuesday (10/09) despite the lack of positive internal factors in Indonesia. Promising European openings also provided support for the index. Foreign investors, similarly to yesterday, were net purchasers of Indonesian assets, while domestic investors mostly sold their assets.
The release of positive economic data in China at the end of last week were continued into this week and had a good impact on regional stock indices. Most Asian stock indices continued their upward movement. This time, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) was able to join its regional peers. Although Indonesia's investment climate is still not conducive, foreign investors were back buying more Indonesian stocks than they sold. The index rose 2.92 percent to 4,191.26 points on Monday (09/09).
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