The Governor of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), Agus Martowardojo, expects that the pace of inflation in Indonesia in January 2014 is most likely to become one of the lowest January inflation rates in the last five years although it remains important that food supplies are maintained at safe levels. The higher price of LPG in Southeast Asia's largest economy is expected to contribute only slightly to January's inflation rate. Martowardojo also stated that Indonesia's macroeconomy is stable at the start of a new year.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects that credit growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy will not exceed 20 percent (year on year) by the end of December 2013. Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia, Halim Alamsyah, stated that credit growth is likely to slow to between 15 and 17 percent (yoy) in 2013 (based on a fixed rupiah exchange rate). Credit growth especially slowed in Indonesia’s consumption and construction sectors; a trend which is expected to continue in 2014.

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The performance of the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate on Friday morning (10/01) was rather stagnant against the US dollar (the latter's movement was mixed against currencies in the Asia-Pacific) although the rupiah was up 0.12 percent to IDR 12,178 per US dollar at 13:42 local Jakarta time based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Positive sentiments are caused by Indonesia's narrowing current account deficit (possibly less than 3 percent of GDP in Q4-2013) and rising foreign exchange reserves at end-December 2013.

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) kept its benchmark interest rate (known as the BI rate) at 7.50 percent in today's Board of Governor's meeting (09/01). The institution decided not to change its interest rate because it estimates that the inflation target for 2014 is not in jeopardy (4.5 percent) while Indonesia's economic growth prospects for 2014 and 2015 remain unchanged. Also the overnight lending facility as well as deposit facility rate (Fasbi) were kept at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively.

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Today (08/01), Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) announced that Indonesia’s official reserve assets stood at USD $99.4 billion at the end of December 2013, implying an USD $2.4 billion growth from the foreign exchange reserves at the end of the previous month (USD $97.0 billion). According to Bank Indonesia, these assets cover 5.6 months of imports or 5.4 months of imports and servicing of government external debt (well above the international standards of reserve adequacy).

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On Sunday 5 January 2014, Indonesia Investments released its latest newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on during the last seven days on our website. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as an update on Indonesia's inflation and current account deficit, initial public offerings (IPOs) in 2014, car sales, the Financial Services Authority (OJK) and Indonesia's aviation industry.

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On Thursday (02/01), Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released the December 2013 inflation figure of Indonesia as well as the calender inflation rate for full-year 2013. Higher food prices and house prices were the main contributors to the 0.55 percent inflation rate in December 2013. Seasonal celebrations, like Christmas and New Year, always translate into higher inflationary pressures in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Higher fuel prices were the main contributor to the 8.38 percent inflation rate in full-year 2013.

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In order to support Indonesia's sharply depreciated rupiah exchange rate, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia or BI) improved provisions for Hedge Swap Transactions through Bank Indonesia Regulation No.15/17/PBI/2013 (which takes effect as of 3 February 2014). Through this arrangement, Indonesian banks can sell their US dollars to BI at the current spot rate and promise to buy the amount at a later date on an agreed rate. This protects banks against fluctuations in the rupiah exchange rate.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects that the country’s inflation figure in December 2013 (month-to-month) will be below 0.5 percent. Up to the third week of December, inflation increased 0.36 percent according to data from Bank Indonesia. Considering the month of December always brings along inflationary pressures due to seasonal celebrations (Christmas and New Year), Bank Indonesia's inflation estimate of below 0.5 percent can be considered rather low.

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The DBS Bank expects that Indonesia's inflation rate will reach 8.2 percent (year-on-year) by the end of 2013, supported by a low monthly inflation rate in the last month of the year. The DBS Bank believes that the pace of inflation in December 2013 will be slightly higher than the country's November inflation (0.12 percent). In the period January to November 2013, inflation in Southeast Asia's largest economy has accumulated to 7.79 percent (yoy). The bank also stated that it expects inflation to reach 6.7 percent in full-year 2014.

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The continued presence of negative market sentiments made it impossible for Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) to rebound. The looming end of the FED's quantitative easing program - which may be wound down sooner than expected - is a big cause for concern. The depreciating Indonesia rupiah exchange rate intensifies these concerns, particularly regarding companies that have exposure to volatile US dollar movements. Furthermore, investors are waiting for further US economic data as well as for Bank Indonesia's next meeting.

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Apparently positive market sentiments brought on by the macroeconomic data released on Monday (02/12) did not last long. Yesterday, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) was lifted by the October 2013 trade surplus and limited November inflation. However, investors are now back to reality and prefer to wait for results of Bank Indonesia's Board of Governor's meeting (12/12) and the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting (17-18/12). The former will inform about Indonesia's interest rate, the latter about the future of quantitative easing.

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The inflation rate of Indonesia rose slightly in November 2013 (month-to-month) and confirms estimations that inflation in Southeast Asia's largest economy is under control after having accelerated sharply due to the introduction of higher subsidized fuel prices June 2013. In recent months, inflation moved sideways and is expected to ease considerably in the first quarter of 2014. Indonesia's consumer price index rose 0.12 percent in November due to rising electricity, processed foods and health care costs.

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After five consecutive days of depreciation, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate finally managed to strengthen against the US dollar. Bank Indonesia's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate rose 0.26 percent to IDR 11,946 per US dollar on Monday (02/12). According to Bloomberg data, the rupiah rose 1.85 percent to IDR 11,744 as of 02:25:50 ET as market participants have reacted positively to Indonesian trade and inflation data that were released today: October showed a trade surplus, while in November inflation was kept at 0.12 percent.

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On Friday (29/11), the last trading day of November 2013, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued its downward spiral. The Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate¹ fell 0.39 percent to IDR 11,970 per US dollar amid concern about the winding down of the quantitative easing program, Indonesia's wide current account deficit, a disappointing US dollar-denominated bond auction and surging US dollar demand for earnings repatriation as well as foreign debt payment. Considering the full month of November, the rupiah depreciated 6.61 percent.

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Currently, one of Indonesia's main financial issues (and one which puts serious pressures on the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate) is the country's wide current account deficit. According to data from Statistics Indonesia, Indonesia's current account deficit totaled USD $8.4 billion in the third quarter of 2013. This figure is equivalent to a whopping 3.8 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP). Generally, a current account deficit that exceeds 2.5 percent of GDP is considered unsustainable.

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The government of Indonesia will release two additional fiscal policy packages at the end of November or start of December that both aim to heal Indonesia's current account deficit. The two packages constitute follow ups of the policy package that was released in August 2013. Previously, deputy minister of Finance, Bambang Brodjonegoro, announced that an additional package would be released in October. However, it turned out that the government needed some more time to prepare the two additional packages.

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On Thursday 14 November 2013, Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), delivered his end-of-the-year speech at the Annual Bankers’ Dinner. The meeting was attended by leaders from Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR), economic ministers, leaders of the country's banking industry and business community, non-ministerial government agencies as well as a number of international institutions, thus representing a strategic forum in terms of the national economy.

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) was not able to continue its rebound. On Friday (15/11), the IHSG fell 0.73 percent to 4,335.45 points amid widespread profit taking. Foreign investors recorded net selling of IDR 193 billion (USD $16.9 million) on today's trading day. Moreover, investors are concerned about the impact of the higher interest rate of the central bank (7.50 percent), particularly on the property and banking sectors in the fourth quarter of 2013.

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The economic stabilisation policies launched by Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) and the Indonesian government in recent months have brought a steady improvement in the country's current account balance. The current account deficit moderated from the previous quarter’s record USD $9.9 billion (equivalent to 4.4 percent of the country's GDP) to USD $8.4 billion (3.8 percent of GDP) in the third quarter of 2013. A shrinking current account deficit is highly awaited by investors. The text below is the official press release of Bank Indonesia.

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