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Before we give an update on the monetary policy of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia), it is worth mentioning that Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo was appointed for another five-year term (2023-2028) as the central bank’s chief.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) raised its benchmark interest rate (BI 7-day reverse repo rate) by 25 basis points (bps) after concluding its two-day policy meeting on 18-19 January 2023. Indonesia’s benchmark rate now stands at 5.75 percent. It also raised its deposit facility and lending facility rates by 25 bps to 5.00 percent and 6.50 percent, respectively.
Last month we stated that Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) might just be at the start of a (prolonged) monetary tightening cycle. After all, higher interest rates is what we see happening across the world; a development that is led by the Federal Reserve (Fed) that has been aggressively raising its benchmark interest rate to fight inflation. This then causes capital outflows from most other parts of the world.
As Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) was very late in terms of tightening its monetary policy amid the latest global tightening cycle – and the US Federal Reserve continued its hawkish stance with another 0.75 percentage point hike in September 2022 – it has some catching up to do.
At its latest monetary policy meeting, held on 18-19 April 2022, Bank Indonesia decided to leave its interest rates unchanged in an effort to facilitate the ongoing economic rebound. The benchmark interest rate (the BI 7-day reverse repo rate) was maintained at 3.50 percent, while the deposit facility and lending facility rates were kept at 2.75 percent and 4.25 percent, respectively.
A bit later than usual due to the week-long Idul Fitri holiday, our April 2022 report was released on Monday 9 May 2022. In this report Indonesia Investments discusses key economic, political and social developments that occurred in Indonesia in the month of April 2022.
At its latest monetary policy meeting, completed on 18 February 2021, Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) decided to cut its benchmark interest rate (the seven-day reverse repurchase rate) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50 percent, a historically low level for Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Also the deposit facility and lending facility rates were cut by 25 bps to 2.75 percent and 4.25 percent, respectively.
For the second consecutive month the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) cut its benchmark interest rate (the BI seven-day reverse repo rate). And, again, the rate was cut by 25 basis points (bps). It means that the key rate is now at the level of 4.50 percent.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) left its benchmark interest rate untouched for the first time in five months. At the two-day policy meeting, which was concluded on Thursday (21 November 2019), Bank Indonesia kept the BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate at 5.00 percent, while maintaining the deposit facility and lending facility rates at 4.25 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) showed that it is willing to lend a helping hand to try and boost Indonesia’s economic growth by cutting its benchmark interest rate again. On 19 September 2019 – the last day of its two-day monthly policy meeting – Bank Indonesia cut its BI 7-day reverse repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.25 percent, while the deposit facility and lending facility rates were lowered (by 25 bps) to 4.50 percent and 6.00 percent, respectively.
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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued to depreciate on Monday (02/03). According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s currency depreciated 0.30 percent to IDR 12,970 per US dollar, a six-year low. Apart from general bullish US dollar momentum in recent months (amid monetary tightening in the USA), the rupiah weakened due to Bank Indonesia’s signals that it tolerates a weaker currency in a move to boost exports (limiting the country’s current account deficit), and due to China’s interest rates cut.
In a surprise move, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to lower its key interest rate (BI rate) by 25 basis points to 7.50 percent at the Board of Governor’s Meeting on Tuesday (17/02). The deposit facility rate (Fasbi) was also lowered by 25 basis points (to 5.50 percent), while the lending facility rate remained steady at 8.00 percent. In a press release the central bank stated that the current policy direction is estimated to moderate the country’s wide current account deficit further, while inflation remains under control.
The trade balance of Indonesia improved in 2014. Over the whole year of 2014 Indonesia posted a USD $1.88 billion trade deficit, significantly better than the USD $4.08 billion deficit it recorded a year earlier. Today (02/02), Statistics Indonesia announced that Indonesia posted a USD $0.19 billion trade surplus in the last month of the year after having recorded a USD $0.42 billion trade deficit in the preceding month. The improved performance is mainly due to the country’s growing non-oil & gas surplus and narrowing oil & gas deficit.
Foreign debt of Indonesia accelerated 11.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $294.4 billion in November 2014. This total debt of USD $294.4 billion in November 2014 consists of public foreign debt of USD $133.9 billion and private foreign debt of USD $160.5 billion. The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) stated that public foreign debt rose 8.6 percent (y/y) mainly on a rise in foreign holdings on government debt securities. Meanwhile, the growth pace of private foreign debt slightly eased.
At the Indonesia Investment Summit 2015, organized in Jakarta on 15-16 January 2015, Bank Indonesia official Arief Mahmud presented several views of the central bank on the current Indonesian economy and the global and domestic challenges that it faces. As is widely known, Indonesia has been experiencing a process of slowing economic growth since 2011 due to sluggish global economic growth in combination with the rebalancing of the domestic economy. However, growth is expected to accelerate in 2015.
In line with the performance of other Asian emerging currencies, Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate appreciated on Monday (12/01) as the fall in US wages (released late last week) caused speculation that the Federal Reserve will - for now - delay its plan to start raising US borrowing costs. Despite solid growing US non-farm payrolls in December 2014, US wages (average hourly earnings) fell the most in eight years. Indonesia’s rupiah appreciated 0.38 percent to IDR 12,599 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index.
The central bank of Indonesia recently issued new regulations (Bank Indonesia Regulation No. 16/21/PBI/2014 and External Circular No. 16/24/DKEM) that aim to safeguard Indonesia’s financial fundamentals. These new regulations, which are an improvement of Bank Indonesia Regulation No. 16/20/PBI/2014 dated Oct. 28 2014, force Indonesian non-bank corporations to apply prudent fiscal management regarding foreign-denominated debt. Bank Indonesia felt these rules are needed as privately-held foreign debt rises continuously.
The latest survey of Indonesia’s central bank indicates that consumer confidence fell in December 2014. The central bank’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 3.6 points to 116.5 in the last month of 2014 (a score above 100 signals optimism among consumers) due to the impact of higher subsidized fuel prices implemented in November 2014. This move triggered higher prices of products and services. The central bank’s Consumer Confidence Index is based on interviews with 4,600 households in 18 Indonesian cities.
Indonesia’s inflation pace accelerated in December 2014, exceeding estimations of analysts and Indonesia’s central bank. December inflation, 2.46 percent (m/m) or 8.36 percent (y/y), accelerated due to the impact of higher subsidized fuel prices (introduced in November) and volatile food prices (fluctuating rice and chili prices at the year-end). Other factors that contributed to high inflation in 2014 were higher electricity tariffs for households and industries, the higher price of 12 kg LPG, and an airfare adjustment.
Bank Indonesia (the central bank of Indonesia) and the Financial Services Authority (OJK) signed an agreement (the ASEAN Banking Integration Framework, abbreviated ABIF) with Malaysia’s central bank to support banking integration in the ASEAN region. The website of Bank Indonesia states that ABIF “provides an operating framework for ASEAN member states to implement principles and the integration process in the banking sector to support the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) [which is to be implemented later this year]”.
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