According to the latest survey of Bank Indonesia (the central bank of Indonesia), the country’s January retail sales accelerated 10.4 percent year-on-year (y/y), up from the 3.3 percentage point growth pace (y/y) in the preceding month. Retail sales in the first month of the year in Southeast Asia’s largest economy accelerated because of higher sales of information & communication equipment (+29.9 percent y/y) as well as food, beverages & tobacco products (+15.1 percent y/y).

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Global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings expects slowing credit growth in Indonesia to reduce systemic risks in the country’s banking sector. In a report entitled Macro-Prudential Risk Monitor, which was released on 3 March 2015, it was mentioned that the macro-prudential risk indicator (MPI) for Indonesia was lowered from '3' (high risk) to '2' (moderate risk). Primary reason for this risk cut was the slowdown in the country's real credit expansion to below 5 percent in 2014 (from a peak of almost 20 percent in 2011).

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General Motors Indonesia (GM Indonesia), the local unit of the US-based General Motors Company, made a loss of about USD $200 million in the years 2013-2014 due to higher operational costs while sales did not grow accordingly. The company was unable to compete with its dominant Japanese rivals, led by Toyota Motor. These were the main reasons behind the company’s decision to close its assembly plant in Bekasi (East of Jakarta) by mid-2015 (implying the dismissal of 500 employees).

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Today (02/03), Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced that Indonesia’s annual inflation eased further in February. Last month, inflation in Southeast Asia’s largest economy cooled to 6.29 percent year-on-year (y/y) - from 6.96 percent (y/y) in the preceding month - amid falling fuel prices as well as falling food prices (particularly chili) despite inflationary pressures triggered by higher rice prices. On a month-to-month (m/m) basis, Indonesia recorded 0.36 percent of deflation in February, the second straight month of deflation.

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Indonesian inflation is expected to have eased further in February 2015 on lower food prices. One notable exception, however, is rice. Rice prices have soared approximately 30 percent year-on-year (y/y) up to IDR 12,000 per kilogram in February. Higher rice prices have been caused by distribution obstacles for Raskin (‘rice for the poor’) operations in combination with this year’s late harvest season (between March and June). Fluctuation in prices of rice, the staple food of 250 million Indonesians, has a significant impact on inflation in Indonesia.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.79 percent to IDR 12,932 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Friday (27/02), its weakest level since end 2008, after the country’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) said it would not intervene too much to support the currency. Bank Indonesia said that it has no target level for the rupiah and will not go against the market. For the market these are signals that the central bank is comfortable with a weaker currency as that would improve the trade balance.

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Indonesia’s rupiah depreciated to its lowest level since mid-December 2014 nearly touching the psychological level of IDR 13,000 per US dollar ahead of Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen appearance before the US Senate Banking Committee and the US Congress (in a two-day meeting) to elaborate on the Fed’s stance on US interest rates. As US jobless claims fell more than expected, analysts believe that it will not take long before the US central bank introduces higher borrowing costs in the world’s largest economy.

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On 22 February 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as the latest trade data, an analysis of Bank Indonesia’s decision to cut its key interest rate, the performance of Indonesian stocks, news about the mineral ore export ban, and more.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated JCI or IHSG) posted a series of consecutive record high closes during the past week, primarily on the central bank’s (Bank Indonesia) decision to cut its key interest rate (BI rate) by 25 basis points to 7.50 percent, investors’ positive outlook on Indonesian companies’ corporate earnings in 2015 and expectation that the Eurozone’s quantitative easing program will offset the negative impact of monetary tightening in the USA.

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One day after the surprise interest rate cut by Indonesia’s central bank, Indonesian stocks surge to a new record level led by interest rate sensitive stocks (such as financial institutions, construction firms and property firms) while the rupiah and government bonds are weakening. Yesterday (17/02), Bank Indonesia shocked markets by lowering its key interest rate (BI rate) and deposit facility rate (Fasbi) by 25 basis points, each, to 7.50 percent and 5.50 percent, respectively. Easing monetary policy is back in fashion among the region’s central banks.

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Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) decided to hold the country’s key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, the deposit facility rate at 5.50 percent, and the lending facility rate at 8.00 percent at the Board of Governor’s Meeting conducted on Tuesday 17 March 2015. Bank Indonesia said that its decision is in line with its ongoing efforts to push inflation back to the target range of 4±1 percent for both 2015 and 2016, and to guide the country’s current account deficit towards a healthier level at 2.5-3 percent of GDP in the medium term.

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Indonesia’s consumer price index fell for the second consecutive month in February 2015, recording deflation of 0.36 percent month-on-month (m/m) in February, while on an annual basis Indonesian inflation eased to 6.29 percent (y/y), down from 6.96 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. Inflationary pressures declined primarily on the back of lower prices of chili peppers and fuel. Easing inflation in Southeast Asia’s largest economy may provide room for Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) to cut interest rates further this year.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued to depreciate on Monday (02/03). According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s currency depreciated 0.30 percent to IDR 12,970 per US dollar, a six-year low. Apart from general bullish US dollar momentum in recent months (amid monetary tightening in the USA), the rupiah weakened due to Bank Indonesia’s signals that it tolerates a weaker currency in a move to boost exports (limiting the country’s current account deficit), and due to China’s interest rates cut.

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In a surprise move, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to lower its key interest rate (BI rate) by 25 basis points to 7.50 percent at the Board of Governor’s Meeting on Tuesday (17/02). The deposit facility rate (Fasbi) was also lowered by 25 basis points (to 5.50 percent), while the lending facility rate remained steady at 8.00 percent. In a press release the central bank stated that the current policy direction is estimated to moderate the country’s wide current account deficit further, while inflation remains under control.

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The Indonesian rupiah strengthened on Monday (16/02) as the country’s twin current account and trade balances improved, while the US dollar weakened on disappointing US retail sales and on optimism that Greece will remain a member of the Eurozone. Meanwhile, Indonesia's Finance Ministry held a successful auction today in which it sold IDR 12 trillion (USD $942 million) of conventional bonds. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s rupiah appreciated 0.35 percent to IDR 12,753 per US dollar based on Monday (16/02).

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Although Indonesia’s economic growth slowed further in 2014, there is optimism that growth will accelerate in 2015 despite sluggish global economic conditions (curbing Indonesia’s export performance) and Bank Indonesia’s relatively high interest rate environment. Indonesia’s central bank has raised its BI rate several times over the past one and a half years in an effort to combat high inflation (caused by fuel price hikes), curb capital outflows ahead of US monetary tightening, limit the current account deficit and support the rupiah.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated on Wednesday (14/01) as global oil and other commodity prices continued to fall thus casting a negative spell on Indonesia’s currency. The rupiah depreciated 0.11 percent to IDR 12,614 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Market participants are concerned about the negative influence of low commodity prices on Indonesia’s export performance. Southeast Asia’s largest economy has had to cope with a wide trade and current account deficit in recent years.

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In line with the performance of other Asian emerging currencies, Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate appreciated on Monday (12/01) as the fall in US wages (released late last week) caused speculation that the Federal Reserve will - for now - delay its plan to start raising US borrowing costs. Despite solid growing US non-farm payrolls in December 2014, US wages (average hourly earnings) fell the most in eight years. Indonesia’s rupiah appreciated 0.38 percent to IDR 12,599 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index.

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International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings maintained Indonesia’s sovereign rating at BBB-/stable outlook (investment grade). Baradita Katoppo, President Director of Indonesia’s Fitch Ratings branch, said that the firm is positive about the country’s financial fundamentals and prudent fiscal policy as the central bank has showed to prefer stability over growth, resulting in slowing credit growth and rising foreign exchange reserves in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Economic growth is expected to fall to 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2014.

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The Governor of Indonesia’s central bank, Agus Martowardojo, said that he expects inflation to accelerate to 6.1 percent year-on-year (y/y) in November 2014, significantly up from 4.83 percent y/y in the previous month. Accelerated inflation is caused by the multiplier effect triggered by the recent subsidized fuel price hike in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. On 18 November 2014, the government introduced higher prices for subsidized fuels in a bid to reallocate public spending from fuel consumption to structural development.

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