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Today's Headlines Economic Policy Package
The Indonesian rupiah continued its remarkable rally on Tuesday (22/12). The currency had appreciated 0.98 percent to IDR 13,672 per US dollar by 11:10 am local Jakarta time (Bloomberg Dollar Index). The rupiah has recovered from a recent low of IDR 14,123 on Monday 14 December to IDR 13,672 per US dollar, a 3.2 percentage point advance in about one week. There are several matters that explain this remarkable performance.
The Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo) is optimistic that Indonesia's economic growth will reach 5.5 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2016, a figure that is higher than the projections set by the central government and central bank. Optimism of Apindo is based on expectations that public and private investment will increase next year on the back of an improved investment climate in Southeast Asia's largest economy, brought about by the series of economic stimulus packages that were unveiled by the government in recent months as well as political and social stability.
In the seventh economic stimulus package, the Indonesian government cuts income tax (up to 50 percent) for employees in labor-intensive industries who earn less than IDR 50 million (approx. USD $3,600) per year. This facility, unveiled on Friday (04/12), aims to combat financial pressures on companies caused by the economic slowdown and next year's higher minimum wages (in order to avert a rise in unemployment as companies may feel the need to sack employees). This tax incentive will be offered for a period of two years and - if successful - will be extended.
On 6 December 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as updates on inflation, an economic growth update, the 7th stimulus package, the rupiah exchange rate, and more.
After having been delayed for several weeks, the Indonesian government today unveiled the seventh stimulus package. The series of stimulus packages are aimed at boosting economic growth in Southeast Asia's largest nation amid slowing growth in China (the primary trading partner of Indonesia), low commodity prices (Indonesia's primary export products), and a looming US interest rate hike later this month (possibly triggering heavy capital outflows from Indonesia).
In its latest Indonesia Property Watch report, Fitch Ratings states that housing demand in Indonesia remained weak in the third quarter of 2015, leading to property developers' decision to postpone a number of new projects. Low commodity prices and high inflation (up to Q3-2015) led to sluggish demand and tepid economic growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Fitch Ratings said residential property price growth in Indonesia continued to slow for the eight consecutive quarter and believes prices are to remain muted in the coming year.
Last week Indonesia delayed the release of the seventh economic stimulus package - a package that will focus on boosting the village economy - as the government still needs to implement several deregulations and debureaucratization in relation to its previous stimulus packages. Darmin Nasution, Indonesia's Chief Economics Minister, said it are the Ministry of Industry, the Ministry of Trade, and the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources that are still to implement deregulations before the seventh package can see daylight.
Both the Center of Reform on Economics (Core) and Aberdeen Asset Management Ltd expect economic growth in Indonesia to accelerate in 2016 after Southeast Asia's largest economy may post a seven-year low GDP growth figure of 4.7 percent in 2015. Both institutions believe that household and government spending will accelerate next year, while recently unveiled economic stimulus packages (involving deregulation and tax incentives) will create a more attractive investment climate, thus both foreign and domestic investment is expected to grow.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects the country's economic growth to come in the lower end of its 4.7-5.1 percent (y/y) gross domestic product (GDP) growth target range for full-year 2015. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo expects to see accelerated economic growth in the last quarter of the year (from the preceding quarter) due to increased government spending and investment. In the second quarter of 2015, Indonesia's economy expanded at the slowest pace in six years (+4.67 percent y/y), then accelerating to 4.73 percent (y/y) in the following quarter.
The government of Indonesia is currently preparing the seventh economic policy package. Through this new package it aims to boost people's purchasing power by focusing on the village economy (ekonomi desa). The package will have two main centers of focus: (1) making the use of village funds - disbursed by the central government - more effective, and (2) improving logistics at the village level. Edy Putra Irawadi, Indonesian Deputy Minister for Industry and Trade, said these new policies will boost people's purchasing power, especially at the village level.
Latest Columns Economic Policy Package
Both Morgan Stanley and Moody's Investors Service have cast some negative perceptions on the condition of the Indonesian economy. First, American multinational financial services corporation Morgan Stanley released a report in which it stated that the recent rupiah rally will not last (Morgan Stanley maintains its year-end target of IDR 14,000 per US dollar). Then, global credit ratings agency Moody's criticized Indonesia's recently unveiled third policy package in which the government lowers energy prices for local manufacturers in a bid to support the industry.
The government of Indonesia unveiled the last installment of a series of three stimulus packages on Wednesday (07/10). The first two installments had been unveiled last month. In general, these stimulus packages aim to boost economic growth of Indonesia (which has slowed to a six-year low) and restore investors' confidence in the Indonesian rupiah and stocks. When markets believed that the Federal Reserve would soon raise its key interest rate, Indonesia was plagued by severe capital outflows pushing the rupiah to a 17-year low.
The government of Indonesia unveiled the second installment of its September economic policy package on Tuesday (29/09). The package is introduced in an attempt to boost economic growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy and defend the ailing rupiah. Indonesia’s GDP growth slowed to a six-year low of 4.67 percent (y/y) in Q2-2015, while the rupiah has depreciated to a 17-year low against the US dollar. Capital outflows from Indonesia are the result of monetary tightening in the USA, low commodity prices and sluggish global economic growth (particularly China’s hard landing).
In response to the ailing global economy, Indonesian President Joko Widodo has unveiled a new economic policy package that aims to boost economic growth of Indonesia amid a highly uncertain global context. On Wednesday (09/09), Joko Widodo (often called Jokowi) provided some details about the first phase of this new stimulus package during a speech at the State Palace in Jakarta.
Although immediately plunging 0.33 percent to IDR 11,478 per US dollar after its opening on Monday (10/03), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate had appreciated 0.57 percent to IDR 11,375 per US dollar by 14:00 local Jakarta time (Bloomberg Dollar Index). The rupiah's performance today is in sharp contrast with other Asian currencies. As US nonfarm payrolls increased more than expected and Chinese exports fell sharply (18.1 percent year-on-year) in February 2014, the US dollar appreciated against most Asian currencies.
Indonesian Economic Minister Hatta Rajasa said that the government is currently engaged in preparing a third economic policy package that aims to reduce the country's current account deficit. In August and December 2013, the government had already implemented two policy reform packages as Indonesia's wide current account deficit and high inflation in combination with the looming end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program led to large capital outflows, thus resulting in sharp rupiah depreciation.
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