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Today's Headlines Capital Inflows
Giant venture capital firm Wavemaker Partners is setting up a new fund with Indonesia being a key market. The new USD $50 million fund will focus on 80 early-stage technology startups in Southeast Asia (particularly business-to-business ventures). Wavemaker Partners is part of the Draper Venture Network, a leading global venture capital collective with ten funds spread across four continents.
Bambang Brodjonegoro, Indonesian Minister of National Development Planning (Bappenas) and former Finance Minister, is confident that the recent sovereign credit ratings upgrade by Standard & Poor's (S&P) will unlock up to USD $200 billion in potential foreign capital inflows into portfolio investment, primarily into Indonesia's government and corporate bonds as well as stocks. Another advantage is that nations with investment grade ratings enjoy cheaper borrowing costs.
American finance firm Goldman Sachs Group Inc expects a big flow of funds from Japan to enter Indonesia's capital markets if credit rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) decides to upgrade Indonesia's sovereign debt rating to investment grade. While Fitch Ratings and Moody's Investors Service have already upgraded Indonesia to investment grade status several years ago, S&P still rates Indonesia's debt one notch below investment grade, implying various big institutional investors cannot invest in Indonesian debt as they require investment grade ratings from all three key credit ratings agencies.
After six years of steady decline, the Indonesian rupiah is likely to have appreciated against the US dollar at the end of 2016. So far this year, the currency of Indonesia has appreciated 4.8 percent to IDR 13,126 against the greenback (Bloomberg Dollar Index) supported by capital inflows, particularly into government bonds and stocks as well as the delay in further monetary tightening in the USA. Although the rupiah should depreciate a bit as we go towards the end of the year, it is set to finish the year at a stronger level than it started.
Allegedly, several Singaporean banks try to keep Indonesian funds within the country by offering tax incentives to their Indonesian clients. These banks are concerned that Indonesia's tax amnesty program will lure taxpayers to repatriate their funds into Indonesia. Under Indonesia's amnesty program tax evaders obtain tax incentives (and impunity from prosecution) to declare and - if desired - repatriate their offshore funds into Indonesia. Although it is illegal to request Indonesian clients not to declare these assets to Indonesian tax authorities, it is legal to offer an incentive to keep the assets in Singapore.
Foreign investors have increased holdings of government bonds by IDR 96.45 trillion (approx. USD $7.4 billion) between the start of 2016 and Wednesday 20 July 2016. In total, foreigners now hold IDR 654.97 trillion (approx. USD $50 billion) worth of Indonesia's government bonds. This reflects strong investor appetite for (relatively) safer state assets amid economic uncertainties related to looming monetary tightening in the USA, the Brexit issue and sluggish global economic growth, but it also shows that foreign investors have confidence in Indonesia's fiscal fundamentals.
According to an Indonesian tax official, 149 taxpayers have already filed for Indonesia's tax amnesty program (which was launched on Monday 18 July 2016) at North Jakarta's Tax Office. Eleven have already settled their tax debt. However, spokesperson for the Directorate General of Taxation, Hestu Yoga Saksama, provided no information about the amount of tax revenue or repatriated funds that are involved. Saksama is optimistic that the government's target of seeing the repatriation of IDR 1,000 trillion (approx. USD $76 billion) worth of previously undeclared offshore assets into Indonesia will be achieved.
Indonesia's House of Representatives and the government seem to agree that the Tax Amnesty Bill, a controversial proposal from the central government to make it attractive for (former) tax evaders to come clean and repatriate their funds to Indonesia, should come into effect soon, perhaps even as early as 1 July 2016. Indonesian lawmaker Supriyatno, who leads a parliamentary working group that discusses the bill, said all factions - except two - have reached a compromise on the Tax Amnesty Bill. A total of ten factions joined the discussions.
Indonesia's current account deficit is expected to rise to USD $26 billion, or 2.6 percent of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP), in 2016. This increase is expected because rising investment and infrastructure development in Indonesia will require more imports from abroad. In 2015 Indonesia's current account deficit was recorded at USD $17.8 billion (2.06 percent of GDP), improving from a USD $27.5 billion deficit (3.09 percent of GDP) in the preceding year (when Indonesia touched a record high current account deficit, and which seriously undermined investors' confidence in the nation's assets).
In the first three monthly policy meetings this year (January-March) the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) cut borrowing costs by a total of 75 basis points. Indonesia's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) was cut from 7.50 percent at the year-start to 6.75 percent at Thursday's Board of Governors' meeting. The overnight deposit facility rate and lending facility rate were also cut by 75 basis points, each, in the first three months. The lower interest rate environment in Indonesia signals that the financial fundamentals are strong. This is partly reason behind strong inflows of foreign capital into Southeast Asia's largest economy.
Latest Columns Capital Inflows
The government of Indonesia is preparing various investment instruments in order to absorb the (potentially large) inflow of capital following the launch of the tax amnesty program earlier this month. Besides government bonds, state-owned enterprises' bonds, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and property investment through private equity schemes (RDPTs), the government is also preparing trustees and zero coupon bonds. Without such investment instruments, bubbles are expected to appear due to the large inflow of funds into Indonesia's financial markets.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) kept its key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent for the tenth consecutive month as inflation is under control and well within the year-end target of the central bank (3.5-5.5 percent). The lending facility and deposit facility were kept at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively, at Thursday’s Board of Governor’s Meeting (11/09). The central bank also expects that the current interest rate environment is capable of curbing the country’s wide current account deficit.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects Indonesia's economic growth to slow to 5.77 percent (year-on-year) in the first quarter of 2014. However, despite this further slowing trend, the institution is content with recent macroeconomic developments: external demand is growing, while domestic demand is moderating, thus impacting positively on the country's current account deficit as well as inflation. Household consumption is expected to have grown in Q1-2014 due to the holding of legislative elections on 9 April 2014.
A shock wave went through Indonesia's financial markets on Friday (14/03) after 15:00 local Jakarta time, when it became known that Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) is joining the presidential race for the July 2014 election. Moreover, he can count on full support from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), one of Indonesia's largest political parties, led by chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri. Few people doubt that Jokowi - current Governor of Jakarta - will be elected as the next president of Indonesia.
The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued its good performance on Friday (07/03) as it had appreciated 0.49 percent to IDR 11,425 per US dollar at 14:22 local Jakarta time based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The currency rose for a fifth consecutive week. Main reasons for this good performance are the improving global economy as well as the improving economy of Indonesia. Foreign funds are again entering Indonesia as investors have renewed confidence in Southeast Asia's largest economy.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is optimistic that the country's currency will continue to appreciate against the US dollar in the first quarter of 2014. Executive Director at the Economic and Monetary Policy Department of Bank Indonesia Juda Agung said that there are two factors that impact positively on the performance of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate: the improved global economy and strengthening domestic economic fundamentals. However, Agung declined to estimate the value of the rupiah by the end of Q1-2014.
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