Today, the Indonesian people decide who will become the next president of the world’s largest archipelago for the period 2014-2019. The Indonesian electorate numbers about 185.6 million (out a total population of 250 million) and they have only two options to choose from: Joko Widodo (Jokowi) and Prabowo Subianto, which also implies that the election will only require one round. Voting starts at 07:00 am local time and the ballot boxes close at 13:00 pm local time. Indonesian financial markets are closed.

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Wednesday 9 July 2014, is a big day for Indonesia as on that day the Indonesian people will vote for the successor of incumbent Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono who had been given the mandate to lead two five-year presidential terms between 2004 and 2014 (and who is the only president in the era of Reformasi that was re-elected by the people). Now, the people have to choose between Joko Widodo (Jokowi), joined by running mate Jusuf Kalla, and Prabowo Subianto, who is joined by running mate Hatta Rajasa.

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After having seen his lead over rival Prabowo Subianto narrow considerably in recent months, the latest survey released by the Indonesia Survey Circle (LSI) today (07/07) indicates that presidential candidate Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo’s popularity has rebounded, although the race remains tight. According to the survey, Jokowi and running mate Jusuf Kalla secured 47.8 percent of respondents’ votes, slightly higher than their rivals Prabowo Subianto and running mate Hatta Rajasa at 44.2 percent.

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With only one more week to go before the Indonesian people will go to the ballot boxes on 9 July 2014 to vote for Indonesia's next leader, speculation and news about the presidential race has become intense. On social media, discussions among Indonesians about the election are intense and emotional. This is exacerbated by the high level of uncertainty with regard to the outcome of the election. Recent surveys indicate that the initial large gap between candidates Joko Widodo (Jokowi) and Prabowo Subianto has nearly vanished.

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Incumbent Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party (Partai Demokrat, abbreviated PD) announced that it will support the Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Rajasa pair in the upcoming presidential election on 9 July 2014. Previously, the party had declared neutrality. On Monday (30/06), PD Executive Chairman Syarief Hasan stated that the party’s leadership advises all its members and supporters to back Prabowo Subianto in his quest to become the next Indonesian president.

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Opinions about who won the vice-presidential debate, held on Sunday (29/06) in the Bidakara hotel (South Jakarta), were mostly mixed. However, when reading the Indonesian media on Monday morning there seems to be a preference for Hatta Rajasa’s performance (the running mate of presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto). When watching the debate, it was clear that Rajasa is a much more rhetorically gifted speaker compared to his rival Jusuf Kalla (Joko Widodo’s running mate).

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This evening (Sunday 29 June 2014), the fourth presidential debate took place, organized in the Bidakara hotel in South Jakarta. However, it was not a debate between the two presidential candidates, Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo and Prabowo Subianto, but between both vice presidential candidates: Jusuf Kalla (Jokowi’s running mate) and Hatta Rajasa (Subianto’s running mate). The theme of tonight's debate was development of human resources, science and technology in Indonesia.

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In the past week, commotion occurred in Indonesia related to the presidential election (which is scheduled for 9 July 2014). This commotion, which involved two 2001 interviews by award-winning American journalist Allan Nairn, a Nazi video, and US ambassador Robert O. Blake Jr, was related to controversial presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, former army general and former son-in-law to Indonesia’s second president Suharto. The 2014 election has become a tight race between Subianto and market favourite Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo.

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On Sunday evening (22/06), the third debate between the two presidential candidates of Indonesia - Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) and Prabowo Subianto - took place and was broadcast live on national television by various stations. Through these debates the presidential candidates are able to outline their vision while trying to increase their popularity among the Indonesian electorate (on 9 July 2014 the Indonesian people will vote for their new leader). The theme of this third debate was ‘international politics and national security’.

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A survey of the Deutsche Bank, one of the world's leading financial service providers, showed that the foreign business community will not be content if Prabowo Subianto takes over the presidential seat from incumbent president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. According to this survey, 56 percent of respondents are planning to sell Indonesian assets if the electorate chooses Subianto as next president in the election that is scheduled for 9 July 2014. About 13 percent answered to buy Indonesian assets in the same scenario.

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The local elections that are held tomorrow (Wednesday 27 June 2018) are regarded a run-up to Indonesia's 2019 legislative and presidential elections. Tomorrow's results are a barometer to measure the political mood in the country with regard to next year's elections. After all, residents in the nation's four most populous provinces - West Java, East Java, Central Java, and North Sumatra - will visit the ballot boxes to vote for new governors. In total, 17 governors, 39 mayors and 115 regents will be elected across Indonesia on Wednesday.

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This week two domestic events need to be carefully watched by those who invest in Indonesian assets: (1) the local elections that are scheduled for Wednesday 27 June, and (2) Bank Indonesia's monthly policy meeting that is scheduled for 27-18 June. Lets take a closer look at these events.

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The issue of foreign workers has been the topic of much debate in Indonesian media in recent weeks. Ahead of the 2019 legislative and presidential elections political opponents of Indonesian President Joko Widodo are seemingly using this topic to gain popularity and to incite criticism on the government, or even to incite anxiety in society. Lets take a closer look at what it is about and whether criticism or anxiety is grounded or that we are simply dealing with another hoax.

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Indonesia's 2019 presidential election is likely to become another battle between incumbent President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) and Gerindra party Chairman Prabowo Subianto. Both men had already been engaged in a fierce contest in 2014, one that was only narrowly won by Jokowi. On Wednesday evening (11/04) Subianto formally accepted the mandate of the Gerindra party to compete as presidential candidate in the 2019 presidential election (scheduled for 17 April 2019).

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Consumer goods companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange are expected to experience two good years in 2018 and 2019 due to the presence of the "political years" (regional elections in 2018 followed by legislative and presidential elections in 2019). Traditionally, consumption rises amid these "parties of democracy" and therefore those consumer goods companies with strong brands are expected to see rising sales in this period.

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It was a solid year for the Indonesian economy. The macroeconomic fundamentals of the nation have strengthened due to the hard work of the Indonesian government under the leadership of President Joko Widodo. However, there is no room for complacency as there remain major bottlenecks, while legislative and presidential elections - in which voters can approve or disapprove Widodo's performance - are scheduled for 2019.

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Investors will need to keep an eye on Indonesia's political years of 2018 (regional elections) and 2019 (legislative elections) as the outcomes can have a big impact on the investment climate and business climate of Indonesia. Most eyes will be on the legislative and presidential elections of 2019.

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Rising commodity prices are good for the Indonesian economy because the country is one of the world's biggest commodity exporters. However, rising commodity prices will also make it more difficult for the government to keep inflation within its target range of 2.5 - 4.5 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2018.

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Across the world, leaders express criticism on US President Donald Trump's decision to officially recognize Jerusalem as the capital city of Israel. Moreover, Trump announced that the American embassy is to be relocated from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. While Trump claims that these decisions constitute a step to advance the peace process and emphasizes that the US will continue to facilitate the peace process between both sides, fierce criticism unleashed following Trump's statements.

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The Indonesian government is still studying the possibility of building a new capital city in Indonesia, thus replacing Jakarta that has become overcrowded with approximately 10 million official residents (the real figure may be much higher as many unregistered Indonesians live in the capital). Moreover, every morning there is a huge inflow of people (originating from the satellite cities around Jakarta) who are heading to their office or place of work. This causes great pressure on the city's fragile infrastructure.

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