Production of coffee in Indonesia is estimated to grow around 10 percent to the range of 650,000 - 700,000 tons in 2017, says the Indonesia Coffee Exporters Association (GAEKI). In 2015 Indonesia's coffee production is estimated to have fallen to 600,000 tons due to the impact of El Nino, a weather phenomenon that brought dry weather to Southeast Asia hence plaguing harvests of agricultural commodities. GAEKI Chairman Hutama Sugandhi added that Indonesia's coffee export performance also declined in 2016.

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Dry weather caused by El Nino is expected to lead to a ten percent decline in Indonesia's coffee production in 2016. El Nino, which occurs once every five years on average, involves periodical warm ocean water temperatures off the western coast of South America that can cause climatic changes across the Pacific Ocean, leading to severe droughts in key agricultural-producing countries in Southeast Asia, including Indonesia. The El Nino in 2015-2016 is the worst one in nearly two decades.

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Indonesian Trade Minister Thomas Lembong targets an increase in the value of Indonesia's coffee exports of between 10 - 15 percent (y/y) to around USD $1.36 billion in 2016, up from USD $1.19 billion one year earlier. One key strategy to boost Indonesian coffee export is by broadening the export markets through promotional activities. An example is the Specialty Coffee Association of America (SCAA) Expo 2016, to be held between 14-17 April 2016 in Atlanta, Georgia (USA). At this event a total of17 Indonesian specialty coffees will be on display.

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Malaysia-based coffee producer Classic Worldwide International Group (CWIG) will soon start operations at its coffee factory in Indonesia. The factory, located in Banten (West Java), is expected to be ready for production at the end of the second quarter this year with a designed production capacity of 500,000 boxes of coffee per month. Output will be branded Kopi Pak Belalang. The management of CWIG said the plant will require about 100-150 local workers. Besides supplying the domestic market, output will also be exported to Malaysia.

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Apart from the Indonesian rupiah which has hit its weakest level since the Asian Financial Crisis 17 years ago, the ongoing El Nino (the weather phenomenon that brings drought to Southeast Asia) may be the strongest since 1997-1998. This means that output of agricultural commodities is to decline (but which should have a positive impact on prices). Coffee production in Indonesia is estimated to fall by seven percent to 581,000 metric tons in 2016 from an estimated 625,000 tons this year.

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Traders expect that Indonesia’s coffee production will be negatively affected by the El Nino weather phenomenon. Due to concern about Indonesia’s 2016/2017 season robusta output, European roasters are reportedly set to raise robusta imports from Vietnam, the world’s top robusta grower, or low-quality arabica from Brazil, the world’s top arabica grower.

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Indonesian coffee shipments to Europe have risen on the back of the weak rupiah and larger coffee harvest. Robusta bean exports from the island of Sumatra grew 22.1 percent year-on-year in June 2015. Meanwhile, European traders expect these strong shipments to continue into July. The Indonesian rupiah is the worst-performing emerging currency in Asia tracked by Bloomberg, weakening about 7.2 percent against the US dollar so far this year. The positive side of a weak currency is that the country's exports become more attractive.

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Due to the prolonged dry season impacting on harvests, coffee production in Indonesia as well as coffee exports from the world’s third-largest coffee grower continued to decline. Based on the latest data from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), Indonesia’s coffee output plunged 23 percent to 540 million kilograms in the period April 2014 to March 2015 compared to the same period in the previous year, while Indonesia’s coffee exports declined to 336 million kilograms from 612 million kilograms over the same period.

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The Rabobank Group, a Dutch multinational banking and financial services company with its headquarters in Utrecht, has injected USD $35 million worth of capital into its Indonesian subsidiary Rabobank Indonesia. Martyn Schouten, President Director at Rabobank Indonesia, said that the capital injection is carried out to support Rabobank Indonesia’s business expansion in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. He added that the Indonesian unit will play an increasingly important role in international business of the Rabobank Group.

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The Central Java branch of the Association of Indonesian Coffee Exporters (AEKI) said that demand for luwak coffee (Indonesian: kopi luwak), an Indonesia specialty coffee and known as the world’s most expensive coffee, has been in decline since 2013. Luwak coffee is an extraordinary type of coffee as it is brewed from beans that have passed through the digestive system of the Asian palm civet cat. This labour-intensive production process and its scarcity on the global market cause luwak coffee’s expensive price.

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The Consulate General of Indonesia in Guangzhou (China) said Indonesia's coffee exports to China reached USD $34.1 million in the January-September 2017 period, hence Indonesia now ranks second in terms of biggest coffee exporters to China. Vietnam ranks first, by a distance, with a coffee export value of USD $368.8 million in the same period.

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The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects Indonesia's coffee exports to fall in the 2016/2017 season due to rising domestic coffee consumption in Indonesia and low productivity. In the January-May 2016 period coffee exports from Indonesia fell 33.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 117,000 metric tons from 177,000 metric tons in the same period one year earlier. Indonesia's main coffee export destination markets are the USA, European Union (EU), and Japan.

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Brazil has been in the spotlight as recent developments in this country influence global prices of coffee and sugar. There are currently two factors at play in Brazil, the world’s leading coffee and sugar supplier. First, ongoing drought has sharply pushed up the price of coffee. Secondly, the market is hopeful that reform-minded candidate Aécio Neves wins the Brazilian presidential election in the second voting round. This has given Brazil’s currency (real) a boost against the US dollar, and thus impacted on prices of coffee and sugar.

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