The Industry Ministry of Indonesia still targets to see some limited growth in Indonesia's cigarette industry this year despite another excise tax hike per January 2018. Abdul Rochim, Director of Food & Beverages, Tobacco Products, and Refreshments at the Industry Ministry, acknowledged that Indonesia's cigarette industry has been under pressure in recent years but remains optimistic that it will not lead to another declining performance in Indonesia's cigarette industry in 2018.

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Indonesia will not only raise excise duties on tobacco products per January 2018 but it was also announced that the import tariff on tobacco will be raised as well. Although the exact amount remains unknown, Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Darmin Nasution confirmed the step would be taken in 2018.

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Commission I of Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) plans to revise Law No. 32/2002 on Broadcasting by adding a full ban on the advertisement of tobacco-related products on television and radio. Indonesia's tobacco industry, a massive industry in Southeast Asia's largest economy, objects to this plan. This ban would also have a big affect on government revenue (excise duties on cigarettes are a key source of government revenue) as well as on revenue generated by media institution because tobacco companies are the fifth-largest advertiser in Indonesia.

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Indonesia is one of the few nations around the globe that is yet to ratify the World Health Organization (WHO)’s Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). The FCTC mandates strict limits on tobacco advertising, sponsorship, production, sale, distribution and taxation in order to protect people from the negative health, social, environmental and economic consequences of cigarette consumption or exposure to cigarette smoke. However, it will be a cold day in hell before Indonesia ratifies the FCTC.

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Indonesian clove farmers are optimistic that the nation's clove production in 2016 will be similar to last year's production realization in the range of 100,000 to 110,000 tons, provided that the weather is good and there will be no excessive rainfall. I Ketut Budiman, Secretary General of the Indonesian Clove Farmers Association (APCI), said Indonesia's clove farmers will not raise their production target in order to maintain clove prices at profitable levels. Currently, the clove price at the farmer level is IDR 100,000 (approx. USD $7.19) per kilogram, while farmers' production costs are estimated at IDR 75,000 per kg.

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Indonesia's tobacco production is expected to rebound to 182,000 tons in 2016 according to the Indonesian Tobacco Farmers Association (APTI), up 7 percent from an estimated 170,000 tons this year. Higher tobacco production is needed as the country's cigarette manufacturers are producing more and more cigarettes each year. With Indonesia's tobacco industry requiring about 300,000 tons per year, the industry remains dependent on tobacco imports. Indonesia is the world’s third-largest tobacco consumer (after China and India) with about 60 million Indonesians - aged over ten years - being categorized as smoker.

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In order to generate more tax revenue in 2016 the Indonesian government plans to raise tobacco taxes by 23 percent (as mentioned in the draft of the 2016 State Budget). This plan resulted in concern among Indonesia’s cigarette producers as the country’s purchasing power has already been curtailed amid the nation’s economic slowdown and high inflation. Contrary to the global trend, the Asian region recorded solid tobacco sales growth in recent years but now these countries seem to join in on anti-tobacco measures such as higher excise taxes and large pictorial warnings on packages.

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Indonesia’s largest cigarette producer, HM Sampoerna, is expected to go-ahead with its planned rights issue despite weak market conditions. HM Sampoerna, subsidiary of USA-based global cigarette and tobacco giant Philip Morris International, needs to meet a recently-adjusted minimum free-float requirement on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).

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In order to comply with new rules, Philip Morris International Inc. will increase the free float ratio of its Indonesian unit HM Sampoerna on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) from 1.82 percent to 7.50 percent. Per January 2016, all listed companies on the IDX are required to have at least 7.5 percent of their shares in public hands. Currently, however, Philip Morris owns 98.18 percent of HM Sampoerna, Indonesia’s largest cigarette manufacturer and among the largest Indonesian companies listed on the IDX in terms of market capitalization.

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The number of smokers in Indonesia continues to rise from year to year. Based on the latest data from Basic Health Research (Riset Kesehatan Dasar) a total of 58.8 million Indonesians aged over ten years smoked in 2013, more than ten times the population of neighbouring Singapore. In one year, these smokers lit around 225 billion cigarettes making Indonesia the third-largest tobacco consumer after China and India. More alarming, about four million of these Indonesian smokers are children between the age of 10 to 14 years.

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The tobacco and cigarette business in Indonesia is big business. Two tobacco companies are positioned within the top ten of largest companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (in terms of market capitalization) as there exists a huge market for cigarettes in Indonesia with some 65 percent of Indonesian men being smokers (due to Indonesia's socio-cultural context few Indonesian women smoke). Moreover, the Indonesian government seems unwilling to limit cigarette consumption (both active and passive smoking) among the population.

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Shareholders of the largest cigarette manufacturer of Indonesia, Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna (HM Sampoerna), approved the company's plan to execute a 25-for-1 stock split. The move, aimed at making shares more affordable for retail investors thus boosting liquidity, will raise the company's total outstanding shares to 116.3 billion pieces. Since 2005 HM Sampoerna has been owned by international tobacco giant Philip Morris. The US-based company controls a 92.5 percent stake in HM Sampoerna.

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Indonesia's slowing economic growth, weaker purchasing power and an 8.7 percent increase in excise on tobacco products (in early 2015) had a relatively small impact on the financial performance of Indonesia's listed tobacco companies HM Sampoerna, Gudang Garam, Bentoel Internasional Investama and Wismilak Inti Makmur. Whereas companies active in various other sectors of the Indonesian economy were plagued by falling revenue and profit figures, these tobacco firms still posted solid gains in revenue and - to a lesser degree - net profit growth. This shows that Indonesian smokers are faithful to their "death stick".

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