The Indonesian government is optimistic that the country’s economic growth will accelerate to 5.8 percent (year-on-year) in 2015 from an expected growth pace of 5.5 percent in 2014. The key to next year’s improved gross domestic product (GDP) growth of Indonesia is the higher forecast for global economic growth. In 2015, the world economy is estimated to grow 3.9% (yoy), higher than the outlook for this year’s growth at 3.6 percent. As such, the government’s outlook is in line the central bank’s GDP growth forecast in the range of 5.4 to 5.8 percent.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced that its foreign exchanges reserves had risen to USD $107.0 billion by the end of May 2014, up from USD $105.6 billion at the end of the previous month. This increase primarily stemmed from government oil and gas export earnings as well as an influx of foreign portfolio capital into Southeast Asia's largest economy, which reflects the positive perception of international investors with regard to the economic fundamentals of Indonesia.

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One of Indonesia's main fiscal problems is the ever increasing amount of public funds spent on energy subsidies (these include fuels and electricity subsidies). These subsidies aim to support the poorer segments of Indonesian society but several studies conclude that it are in fact the middle class and elite segments that benefit the most of these energy subsidies. Furthermore, by keeping energy prices artificially low, the government distorts the economy by creating a more-or-less 'false economy'.

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An improving US economy can lead to capital outflows worth IDR 130 trillion (US $11.2 billion) from Indonesia as funds are expected to flow back to the USA when interest rates are raised. Since 2009, emerging markets, including Indonesia, benefited from capital inflows amid large monetary stimulus provided by the Federal Reserve (quantitative easing as well as low interest rates). Although the stimulus was aimed at boosting the US economy, emerging markets felt the side effects (such as capital inflows and appreciating emerging market currencies).

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) said that it expects the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate to trade between IDR 11,600 and IDR 11,800 per US dollar throughout the fiscal year of 2014. Governor of Bank Indonesia Agus Martowardojo said that this assumption is based on pressures that originate from Indonesia's current account deficit. In 2013, the current account deficit hit USD $29.09 billion, or 3.33 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). The current account balance has a major influence on the performance of a currency.

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Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri said that the country's current account deficit, the broadest measure of international transactions, may widen in the second quarter of 2014 as many local companies engage in business expansion. Such expansion usually triggers an increased amount of imports, thus impacting on the trade balance. A widening current account deficit in the second quarter of the year is a normal trend. The balance usually improves in the third and fourth quarters.

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The Governor of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia), Agus Martowardojo, expects that the country’s trade balance will post a surplus of around USD $600 million in April 2014, roughly similar to the surplus that was recorded one month earlier (USD $673 million). The April 2014 surplus would be supported by an improvement in non-oil & gas exports, stable commodity prices (particularly coal and crude palm oil/CPO), as well as the waning influence of the Minerba Act.

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The Indonesian government announced to revise its GDP growth target for 2014 after seeing the disappointing economic growth result in the first quarter of 2014. Last week, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) had announced that GDP growth in Q1-2014 only amounted to 5.21 percent, far below official growth targets as well as analysts' forecasts. Indonesia's slowing growth was caused by slowing exports, brought on by the slow global recovery, China's slowing economy and the temporary impact of the ban on exports of unprocessed minerals.

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On 11 May 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such as the revision of the Negative Investment List, an analysis of GDP growth in Q1-2014, the benchmark interest rate, the current account deficit, manufacturing, unemployment , the offical result of the legislative election, and more.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced that the improving trend of the current account deficit continued in the first quarter (January-March) of 2014. The current account deficit fell from USD $4.3 billion, equivalent to 2.12 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2013 to USD $4.2 billion (2.06 percent of GDP) in Q1-2014. This improvement was brought about due to a decrease in imports of goods and the narrowing deficits in the services and income accounts.

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Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors decided to hold the BI Rate at a level of 7.25 percent, with rates on the Lending Facility and Deposit Facility held respectively at 7.25 percent and 5.50 percent. Bank Indonesia will continue to monitor global and domestic developments and further synergise the monetary and macroprudential policy mix in order to ensure that inflationary pressures remain under control, that rupiah exchange rate stability is maintained according to its fundamentals and the current account deficit is reduced to a sustainable level.

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Growth rates in Indonesia in 2013 and 2014 will fall below earlier projections, highlighting the need to continue improving the country’s competitiveness in manufactured exports, says the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in an update of its flagship annual economic publication, Asian Development Outlook 2013. ADB revised down its 2013 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for Indonesia to 5.7% from 6.4% seen in April. For 2014, growth will also be adjusted to 6.0% from the previous estimate of 6.6%.

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It seems clear now how market conditions will be until the end of the year. Two important foreign issues - the US Federal Reserve's tapering of quantitative easing (QE3) as well as the US debt ceiling issue which resulted in a shutdown as the Democrats and Republicans failed to come to an agreement on the country's federal budget - and various economic data from Indonesia (inflation and the trade balance) have provided some more insight into the matter. I will discuss each topic one by one below.

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On this week's second day of trading (01/10), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (IHSG) was able to post a 0.69 percent rise to 4,345.90 points despite ongoing concerns about the economic shutdown in the United States as discussions have not led to agreement about the country's debt ceiling. However, various data from Asia made a good impact. Indonesia's trade surplus in August and deflation in September contributed to positive market sentiments and provided a boost for the rupiah.

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Investors are eagerly waiting for the release of Indonesia's September inflation rate. Indonesia has been hit by high inflation since the government decided to increase prices of subsidized fuels at the end of June. High inflation limits its people's purchasing power and as domestic consumption accounts for about 55 percent of Indonesia's economic growth, it thus impacts negatively on GDP growth, particularly after Bank Indonesia raised its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) from 5.75 to 7.25 percent between June and September.

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Both the Indonesian currency and the benchmark stock index (IHSG) continued their fall on Tuesday (24/09). Wall Street's weak performance on the last three trading days was a major factor that brought negative market sentiments to the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). Even good openings in Europe were not able to push the IHSG back into green territory. The index fell 2.25 percent to 4,460.41 points. Foreign investors were net sellers of Indonesian stocks, while domestic investors were net buyers.

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Starting from May 2013, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) has been on a weakening (bearish) trend inflicted by various reasons. First, in early May, Standard & Poor's downgraded Indonesia's credit rating due to the government's hesitancy to slash fuel subsidies. Then, the Federal Reserve started to speculate about ending its quantitative easing program. Capital outflows that followed indicated the vulnerable state of the Indonesian economy. Moreover, the controversial hike in fuel prices in late-June resulted in high inflation.

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On Thursday (19/09), most currencies and stock indices outside the USA were bullish after the Federal Reserve decided to continue its massive monthly USD $85 billion bond buying program. Today (20/09), Asian currencies and stock indices took the foot off the gas as many investors sought to cash in on yesterday's gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific was still able to rise slightly (0.1 percent) after jumping 2.2 percent yesterday, but Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) plunged 1.86 percent (after gaining 4.65 percent yesterday).

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Investors all around the world are in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's decision to scale back the monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying program known as quantitative easing (QE3). If indeed scaled back, then another important question remains: how much will the bond-buying program be toned down? Today (18/09), is the last day of the Fed's FOMC meeting in which these decisions are made. The market expects no drastic end to the program, instead a gradual toning down (between USD $10 to $20 billion) is anticipated.

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It was decided at the Board of Governors’ meeting (RDG) of Bank Indonesia on 12 September 2013 to raise the BI Rate by 25 bps to 7.25%, the rate on the Lending Facility by 25 bps to 7.25% and the rate on the Deposit Facility by 25 bps to 5.50%. This action forms part of the follow-up measures taken to reinforce the policy mix instituted by Bank Indonesia, which focuses on controlling inflation, stabilizing the rupiah exchange rate and ensuring the current account deficit is managed to a sustainable level.

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