Indonesia Investments Report - June 2021 Edition: COVID-19 Crisis Intensifies
Subscriber Update - Capital Injections into State-Owned Enterprises
Update COVID-19 in Indonesia: 2,615,529 confirmed infections, 68,219 deaths (13 July 2021)
13 July 2021 (closed)
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Below is a list with tagged columns and company profiles.
Today's Headlines Infrastructure
On 8 June 2021 Indonesian Minister of State-Owned Enterprises Erick Thohir told Commission VI of the House of Representatives (DPR) that he proposes to raise the budget for capital injections into state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in 2022. The main reason is that the SOE Ministry wants to inject (additional) capital into 12 SOEs.
In November 2020 the Patimban seaport is expected to open in Subang (West Java). Although it is only the soft launch of the project’s first phase, it is no small matter as this port is set to be developed into Indonesia’s biggest port by 2027.
On Monday (05/10/2020) Indonesia Investments released the September 2020 edition of its monthly report. In this edition, titled 'Infrastructure in Focus', we focus on infrastructure development in Indonesia. For example we discuss how the lack of infrastructure development undermines economic and social development.
On Sunday 14 July 2019 Indonesian President Joko Widodo unveiled his vision for Indonesia in the 2019-2024 period, which will be his second – and final - term as president of Southeast Asia’s largest economy (with the inauguration of his new cabinet scheduled for late-October 2019).
In line with our forecast, Indonesia’s economic growth continued to accelerate in 2018. Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS), which were released in early February 2019, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 5.17 percent year-on-year (y/y) in full-year 2018, up from a growth rate of 5.07 percent in the preceding year.
The construction of three national strategic projects - worth a combined IDR 70 trillion (approx. USD $5 billion) - is targeted to be completed before the end of 2019. These three projects are: (1) the first phase of Jakarta's mass rapid transit (IDR 16 trillion), (2) the New Yogyakarta International airport (IDR 10.8 trillion), and (3) the Patimban seaport in Subang, West Java (IDR 43.2 trillion).
Basuki Hadimuljono, Indonesian Minister of Public Works and Public Housing, said the government continues to push for infrastructure development in the form of toll roads in various regions across Indonesia.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) believes that the Indonesian government needs to make a more careful selection in terms of infrastructure development projects in order to curtail the big amount of imports that put pressure on the country's current account balance and rupiah exchange rate.
Indonesia managed to rise sharply in the ranks of the World Bank's latest Logistics Performance Index (LPI). In the 2018 edition, which was released on Tuesday (24/07), Indonesia ranked 46th, up from 63rd in the preceding edition (released in 2016).
Indonesia's Transportation Ministry is optimistic that the construction of the Patimban Seaport in Subang (West Java) can commence in June 2018 after the Idul Fitri celebrations have completed. Meanwhile, the port operator tender is scheduled to be opened in July 2018. The USD $3.1 billion Patimban seaport is envisaged to become a key international seaport in Indonesia with a 7.5 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) capacity.
Latest Columns Infrastructure
With the Indonesian government showing its commitment to push for infrastructure development, the property sector of Indonesia is expected to get a boost as infrastructure development opens access to new areas. For example, Indonesia's first high-speed train project that is to connect Jakarta and Bandung (in West Java) is expected to give rise to new economic centers and cities along the 142 kilometers-long railway. Moreover, existing property in the proximity of a new infrastructure project should lead to significantly rising property prices.
The Indonesian government plans to offer 10 toll road projects - with a total length of 520.83 kilometers - to investors before the end of the year. The projects are estimated to have a total value of IDR 109.58 trillion (approx. USD $8.3 billion). The offering of these projects are in line with the government's efforts to boost infrastructure development across the country. Such development will enhance inter and intra island connectivity, thus curbing the nation's high logistics costs and offer a more attractive investment climate to (potential) investors.
Two state-controlled companies (both listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange) are expected to feel the positive impact of the light rail transit (LRT) in Palembang (South Sumatra), a transportation project currently under construction. These two companies are construction firm Waskita Karya and cement producer Semen Baturaja. These two companies are heavily involved in the LRT project that is estimated to cost around USD $520 million. This LRT track is supportive infrastructure for the 2018 Asian Games, to be held in South Sumatra in August 2018.
Indonesia's economic growth in the first quarter of 2016 was rather disappointing at 4.92 percent (y/y), below analyst estimates that averaged around 5 percent (y/y), due to slowing household consumption, private investors being in a wait-and-see mode, and relatively weak government spending (a usual phenomenon at the year-start). Indonesia's construction sector also grew weakish in Q1-2016. However, the construction sector still has good prospects in the years ahead on the back of the government's infrastructure projects.
If we look back on the month of April, two important matters - related to the economy - occurred in Indonesia this month: (1) in the first week of April, the Indonesian government managed to complete the Revised 2016 State Budget (RAPBN-P 2016), and, one week later, (2) the central bank (Bank Indonesia) announced it will adopt a new benchmark monetary tool per 19 August 2016 - the so-called seven-day reverse repurchase rate - that is to replace the existing BI rate (which fails to influence market liquidity effectively).
Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI), one of the leading banks in Indonesia, is expected to maintain rising net profit figures in the years ahead due to its decision to focus on (corporate) credit disbursement for domestic infrastructure development projects. In fact, according to RHB OSK Securities, BNI may become the state-controlled bank that benefits most from the government decision to raise its infrastructure budget to IDR 313.5 trillion (approx. USD $24 billion) in the 2016 State Budget. Last year, growth of credit disbursed by BNI to infrastructure projects climbed 116.2 percent (y/y). This year infrastructure credit may grow by another 19 percent.
Public spending on infrastructure development in Indonesia is not optimal. Sofyan Djalil, Indonesia's National Development Planning Minister as well as Head of the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas), says immature and non-integrated planning between ministries and other government agencies as well as between the central and regional governments cause inefficient and non-optimal infrastructure spending. Non-optimal infrastructure development implies that Indonesia's overall economic growth as well as social development cannot achieve its full potential.
Construction company Waskita Karya is expected to be among the main beneficiaries of the multi-year Trans-Java toll road project. The company, in which the Indonesian government owns a 68 percent stake, has been assigned to develop six (out of a total of 19) sections of the Trans-Java toll road including the sections Pemalang-Batang, Solo-Ngawi and Ngawi-Kertosono. Waskita Karya's participation in this project will not only strengthen the company's investment portfolio in Indonesia's toll road sector but will also imply rising precast concrete sales of its subsidiary Waskita Beton Precast (established in 2013).
The price of steel has surged 20 percent to USD $365 per ton in April 2016 from USD $305 per ton at the start of the year. The primary reason for the higher steel price is China's plan to curtail the country's installed steel production capacity by a further 150 million tons over the next five years. In recent years the steel price has dropped significantly due to the global oversupply, mainly originating from the chronic steel oversupply in China where domestic demand declined amid the nation's economic slowdown.
Construction of a new big infrastructure project in Indonesia has started: the Semanggi flyover in Jakarta's central business district. The project involves two additional elevated ramp roads above the existing intersection at Semanggi (hence creating an interchange). Improving the existing road infrastructure at this location is required in order to ease severe traffic congestion that occurs on working days. The project, which requires high-end technology, kicked off on Friday (08/04) and is scheduled to be completed in August 2017, ahead of the 2018 Asian Games.
Associated businesses Infrastructure
