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Today's Headlines Infrastructure
On Sunday 14 July 2019 Indonesian President Joko Widodo unveiled his vision for Indonesia in the 2019-2024 period, which will be his second – and final - term as president of Southeast Asia’s largest economy (with the inauguration of his new cabinet scheduled for late-October 2019).
In line with our forecast, Indonesia’s economic growth continued to accelerate in 2018. Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS), which were released in early February 2019, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 5.17 percent year-on-year (y/y) in full-year 2018, up from a growth rate of 5.07 percent in the preceding year.
The construction of three national strategic projects - worth a combined IDR 70 trillion (approx. USD $5 billion) - is targeted to be completed before the end of 2019. These three projects are: (1) the first phase of Jakarta's mass rapid transit (IDR 16 trillion), (2) the New Yogyakarta International airport (IDR 10.8 trillion), and (3) the Patimban seaport in Subang, West Java (IDR 43.2 trillion).
Basuki Hadimuljono, Indonesian Minister of Public Works and Public Housing, said the government continues to push for infrastructure development in the form of toll roads in various regions across Indonesia.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) believes that the Indonesian government needs to make a more careful selection in terms of infrastructure development projects in order to curtail the big amount of imports that put pressure on the country's current account balance and rupiah exchange rate.
Indonesia managed to rise sharply in the ranks of the World Bank's latest Logistics Performance Index (LPI). In the 2018 edition, which was released on Tuesday (24/07), Indonesia ranked 46th, up from 63rd in the preceding edition (released in 2016).
Indonesia's Transportation Ministry is optimistic that the construction of the Patimban Seaport in Subang (West Java) can commence in June 2018 after the Idul Fitri celebrations have completed. Meanwhile, the port operator tender is scheduled to be opened in July 2018. The USD $3.1 billion Patimban seaport is envisaged to become a key international seaport in Indonesia with a 7.5 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) capacity.
The Indonesian government targets to see 17 toll road projects, all part of the national strategic projects program, being completed before the end of 2019. Two of these projects - (1) the 7.2 km-long Bekasi-Cawang-Kampung Melayu toll road and (2) the 11 km-long Bogor Ring Road - are estimated to be ready for the public before the end of 2018. Combined, the 17 toll road projects cost IDR 105.35 trillion (approx. USD $7.6 billion) and will contribute to improved connectivity in Southeast Asia's largest economy.
The Committee for the Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (in Indonesian: Komisi Penyediaan Percepatan Infrastruktur Prioritas, or KPPIP), said 14 projects have been removed from the national strategic projects list. KPPIP Program Director Rainier Haryanto said an evaluation showed that these 14 projects failed to meet specific criteria and can therefore not be started - or reach financial close - before the fourth quarter of 2019.
It has been a while since we last reported on developments surrounding the Palapa Ring project, one of Indonesia's priority infrastructure projects in the 2016-2019 period. The Palapa Ring, which involves an undersea fiber-optic cable network that stretches across 13,000 kilometers as well as an onshore network of nearly 22,000 kilometers, will provide fast broadband Internet to Indonesians in both the urban and rural areas across the country. Once completed, all Indonesian districts (kabupaten) are connected through fiber-optic communication.
Latest Columns Infrastructure
Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI), one of the leading banks in Indonesia, is expected to maintain rising net profit figures in the years ahead due to its decision to focus on (corporate) credit disbursement for domestic infrastructure development projects. In fact, according to RHB OSK Securities, BNI may become the state-controlled bank that benefits most from the government decision to raise its infrastructure budget to IDR 313.5 trillion (approx. USD $24 billion) in the 2016 State Budget. Last year, growth of credit disbursed by BNI to infrastructure projects climbed 116.2 percent (y/y). This year infrastructure credit may grow by another 19 percent.
Public spending on infrastructure development in Indonesia is not optimal. Sofyan Djalil, Indonesia's National Development Planning Minister as well as Head of the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas), says immature and non-integrated planning between ministries and other government agencies as well as between the central and regional governments cause inefficient and non-optimal infrastructure spending. Non-optimal infrastructure development implies that Indonesia's overall economic growth as well as social development cannot achieve its full potential.
Construction company Waskita Karya is expected to be among the main beneficiaries of the multi-year Trans-Java toll road project. The company, in which the Indonesian government owns a 68 percent stake, has been assigned to develop six (out of a total of 19) sections of the Trans-Java toll road including the sections Pemalang-Batang, Solo-Ngawi and Ngawi-Kertosono. Waskita Karya's participation in this project will not only strengthen the company's investment portfolio in Indonesia's toll road sector but will also imply rising precast concrete sales of its subsidiary Waskita Beton Precast (established in 2013).
The price of steel has surged 20 percent to USD $365 per ton in April 2016 from USD $305 per ton at the start of the year. The primary reason for the higher steel price is China's plan to curtail the country's installed steel production capacity by a further 150 million tons over the next five years. In recent years the steel price has dropped significantly due to the global oversupply, mainly originating from the chronic steel oversupply in China where domestic demand declined amid the nation's economic slowdown.
Construction of a new big infrastructure project in Indonesia has started: the Semanggi flyover in Jakarta's central business district. The project involves two additional elevated ramp roads above the existing intersection at Semanggi (hence creating an interchange). Improving the existing road infrastructure at this location is required in order to ease severe traffic congestion that occurs on working days. The project, which requires high-end technology, kicked off on Friday (08/04) and is scheduled to be completed in August 2017, ahead of the 2018 Asian Games.
After experiencing a two-month delay due to permitting and concession trouble, the construction of the Jakarta-Bandung fast train should be able to commence soon. Indonesian Transportation Minister Ignasius Jonan confirmed on Wednesday (16/03) that his ministry agreed to grant a 50-year concession period to the Chinese-Indonesian consortium named Kereta Cepat Indonesia Cina (KCIC). The granting of this concession means that KCIC should be able to secure the necessary construction and business permits soon. The USD $5.1 billion Jakarta-Bandung railway (in West Java) is one of the mega-infrastructure projects of Indonesia.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Indonesia's economy to expand 4.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2016, slightly up from a 4.8 percentage point (y/y) growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015. On Tuesday (15/03) Luis Breuer, IMF Mission Chief for Indonesia, said the Washington-based lender projects limited growth (+0.1 percent) of Indonesia's private consumption this year. Regarding growth of investment and government spending in 2016, the IMF holds a more positive view. On the same day, the World Bank cut its forecast for Indonesia's 2016 GDP growth by 0.2 percent to 5.1 percent.
With Indonesia's construction and infrastructure sectors expected to grow in 2016, backed by government support, Indonesia-based steel pipe manufacturer Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia should manage to see higher net profit this year. The company, with its factories in Sidoarjo and Surabaya (East Java), has the largest steel pipe production capacity of all steel pipe producers in Indonesia. With its six factories - and 34 production lines - the company's production capacity currently stands at 588,600 metric tons per year.
Indonesia's Ministry of Transportation has completed a feasibility study for the development of the Patimban seaport in West Java. Although there are no official statements made by the Indonesian government, it is expected that the Patimban seaport is the most suitable candidate to replace the Cilamaya port project in Karawang (West Java). This project was cancelled in April 2015 as the location was too closely located to an oil and gas block operated by Pertamina Hulu Energi Offshore North West Java, a unit of state-owned energy company Pertamina.
As cement sales in Indonesia are expected to rise nearly 10 percent (y/y) to 66.4 million tons in 2016 on the back of government-led infrastructure development, investment growth and accelerating GDP growth, three cement producers are set to benefit. The three market leaders in Indonesia's cement industry that should see higher sales are Semen Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa and Holcim Indonesia.
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