Indonesia's manufacturing industry was worth IDR 2,097.7 trillion (approx. USD $156 billion) in 2015, contributing 18.1 percent to the country's gross domestic product (GDP), up from 17.8 percent of GDP in the preceding year. However, this higher contribution of manufacturing to the economy is mainly caused by the declining roles of oil & gas, commodities, agriculture and mining within the Indonesian economy. These sectors have all seen their roles decline amid persistently low commodity prices.

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Besides infrastructure, Indonesia's food and beverage sector remains a favorite of Indonesian banks for the disbursement of loans in 2016 as this sector is regarded promising. Meanwhile, a good supply of food products also supports a stable inflation rate (apart from administered prices, volatile food prices are a key contributor to inflation in Indonesia). Roy Armand Arfandi, General Director of Bank Permata, said Indonesia's economic growth is still highly dependent on people's purchasing power (household consumption accounting for nearly 56 percent of the nation's GDP), hence those sectors that support domestic consumption are attractive for banks.

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Indonesia's exports of plastics and plastic products fell 18.5 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2015 to USD $2.25 billion from USD $2.76 billion in the preceding year. This decline was caused by weak global demand for plastic, falling selling prices and the low competitiveness of Indonesia's plastics and plastic products. Also in terms of volume Indonesia's plastic exports declined. Based on the latest data from Indonesia's Trade Ministry, the nation's plastics export volume fell 5.58 percent (y/y) to 1.39 million tons last year.

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Indonesia is forced to import sugar as domestic production of white crystal sugar in 2015 failed to achieve the target of 2.7 million tons. Indonesia's sugar processing plants only managed to produce 2.5 million tons of white crystal sugar in 2015. The Indonesian Sugar Association (AGI) predicts a widening sugar deficit in 2016 as it sees domestic production slowing further to 2.3 million tons in 2016, implying that about 400,000 tons of sugar need to be imported in order to meet domestic demand.

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When the government of Indonesia banned the sale of alcoholic beverages in minimarkets and kiosks in early 2015 in an effort to “protect the morals and culture of Indonesian society”, it came as a shock to alcoholic beverage producers. Although alcoholic drinks are still allowed to be sold in the larger supermarkets, restaurants, cafes and hotels, sales of beer plunged as the beverage was banned in the (estimated) 70,000 minimarkets that have become a very popular shopping place in the urban areas of Indonesia.

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The food sector is one of the sectors within Indonesia's manufacturing industry that continues to lure foreign investors. This statement is based on the latest report of the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), the investment services agency of the Indonesian government, released in late December. The agency notes that applications by investors for principle licenses in the food sector in the period 1 January to 28 December 2015 were worth a total of IDR 184.9 trillion (approx. USD $13.5 billion).

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The plan of Indonesia's government to set an excise tax of between IDR 2,000 and IDR 3,000 (approx. USD $0.18) per liter on carbonated (soda) drinks met fierce resistance from several institutions. Based on Indonesian law, consumption of goods that have a negative impact on consumers' health or the environment need to be controlled and monitored. The Soft Drinks Industry Association (Asrim), Indonesian Food and Beverage Association (Gapmmi),  and Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo) all consider this move to be negative for the country's soft drinks industry.

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Turnover in Indonesia’s processed food and beverage industry is expected to grow 4 to 5 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the first quarter of 2015 from the same period last year. Adhi Lukman, General Chairman of the Indonesian Food and Beverage Association (GAPMMI), said that factors have been hampering this industry are the winding down of fuel subsidies, the country’s sluggish export sector, the industry’s dependence on imports of raw materials, people’s weakening purchasing power amid low commodity prices, and a weak rupiah.

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In 2014, about 30 to 40 foreign franchise holders (mostly from Singapore and the USA) intend to enter Indonesia as the country's franchise business expands about 20 percent per year. Levina Supit, Chairman of the Indonesian Franchising and Licensing Association (Wali), said that Indonesia's franchise business is currently dominated by the food and drinks and services sector. The new foreign market participants will focus on these two sectors as prospects are promising due to Indonesia's rapidly expanding middle class.

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The Coca Cola Company (TCCC) and its Australia-based subsidiary Coca Cola Amatil (CCA) launched two new production lines at the Coca Cola Amatil Indonesia plant located in Bekasi (West Java) at the start of the week, part of a USD $500 million investment package that will materialize over the next 4 years. TCCC, the US-based multinational beverage manufacturer, is eager to expand its business activities in Indonesia as it considers Indonesia a dynamic and promising market as well as one of the growth engines to achieve its long-term targets.

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Food product exports from Indonesia to the Netherlands have increased according to Wim Jansen, Commercial Manager at NIVO Import & Export BV, Netherlands-based importer and exporter of Asian food products. About 45 percent of the company’s imports constitute food products from Indonesia, reaching a value of 3.5 million euro per year. Some popular Indonesian food products that are imported into the Netherlands are chili sauce, soy sauce, crackers (krupuk), various spices and noodles.

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Growth of the manufacturing industry in Indonesia is expected to be significantly weaker in 2015 than initially forecast. Indonesia’s Industry Ministry cut its 2015 forecast for expansion of the country’s manufacturing industry to 6.1 percent (year-on-year) from the previous estimate of 6.8 percent. In tandem with slowing economic growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy, manufacturing growth has slowed to 4.99 percent (y/y) in Q3-2014. Moreover, the HSBC/Markit PMI contracted to a record low of 48.0 in November 2014.

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Investment in Indonesia’s processed food and beverage industry is expected to grow at least ten percent to IDR 55 trillion (USD $4.6 billion) in 2015 from an estimated investment realization of IDR 50 trillion in 2014. Adhi Lukman, General Chairman of the Indonesian Food and Beverage Association (GAPMMI), said that investments in this sector have been solid due to rising consumption of food and beverages in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Particularly foreign investments have been strong in 2014 and are expected to continue next year.

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An important change will be made to the ministerial regulation that deals with the franchise businesses and traditional markets in Indonesia. Indonesian Trade Minister Muhammad Lutfi said that the government plans to adjust a retroactive clause formulated in Ministry of Trade Regulation No. 7 Year 2013 on Partnership Development in Franchise Business Services for Food and Beverages (Permendag Nomor 7). Initially this clause limited franchise ownership to a maximum of 250 outlets, forcing big franchisees to confirm to new requirement.

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A total of twenty Japanese companies engaged in the food and beverage industry are exploring investment opportunities in Indonesia. According to research conducted by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), the food and beverage industry of Indonesia is regarded as a lucrative investment opportunity by these companies. If realized, these foreign direct investments could be worth between USD $400 million to USD $1 billion. However, JICA’s research did not mention any names of the Japanese companies.

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Last February, the Indonesian government, through its Ministry of Trade, issued new rules with regard to Indonesia's franchise sector. This new regulatory framework - formulated in Ministry of Trade Regulation No. 7 Year 2013 on Partnership Development in Franchise Business Services for Food and Beverages (Permendag Nomor 7) - will have an impact on Indonesia's food and beverage services as limitations are set on the amount of outlets.

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