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Today's Headlines Urbanization
The Internet has been one of the most revolutionary technologies in human history. It has made the world a much smaller place by revolutionizing communications. Internet has opened the doors to an enormous amount of information and data that are readily available by only a click or two (thereby completely changing the way people access and consume information).
On Friday (5/07) Indonesia Investments released the June 2019 edition of its monthly research report. The report aims to inform the reader of the key political, economic and social developments that occurred in Indonesia in the month of June 2019 and also touches upon key international developments that impacted on the Indonesian economy.
An annual peak in urbanization in Indonesia is one of the most interesting consequences of the Lebaran period. Ahead of Lebaran - a national holiday when Indonesian Muslims celebrate the end of the Ramadan month - around 20 million Indonesians (most of whom reside in the urban centers of Java) travel back to their places of origin to spend a couple of days with their (extended) families. It is a tradition that is locally known as mudik.
Like in most other nations across the world, Indonesia is also experiencing rapid urbanization. Currently, 56 percent of the Indonesian population lives in urban areas (at the start of the century - in 2000 - the figure was 42 percent). Although urbanization is - in theory - an engine of economic growth, Indonesia is not reaping the full benefits of urbanization.
Jakarta is the capital city of Indonesia and center of the country's politics and business. It is therefore also the most populous city within the Archipelago, and the local population is expanding at a rather fast rate because many people from the rural areas or smaller cities migrate to this mega-city in search of livelihood. The earliest known settlement in the area we now know as Jakarta was built about 400 AD (Sunda Kelapa). However, the Dutch would establish a new (and modern) power in this region in 1619 that would become the center of colonial politics.
AkzoNobel, the Dutch multinational that is primarily engaged in the fields of decorative paints, performance coatings and specialty chemicals, stated that it has shifted its focus from China to Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia and Vietnam. Ton Buchner, Chief Executive Officer of AkzoNobel, said growth in China has lost its decade-long momentum and thus AkzoNobel will reduce investment realization in China and instead focus on new growth markets in Southeast Asia.
The New Cities Summit 2015 will be held between 9 and 11 June at Ciputra Artpreneur in South Jakarta. The summit, themed “Seizing the Urban Moment: Cities at the Heart of Growth and Development,” will gather around 800 urban planners, urban leaders, artists, businessmen and innovators from around the world in Indonesia’s capital city. This year’s summit is the fourth edition. Previous editions were held in Paris, Sao Paulo and Dallas. The main theme of these summits is to discuss the future of cities.
In the Safe Cities Index 2015, launched by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Indonesia’s capital city of Jakarta is ranked at the bottom of the index. The Safe Cities Index, which covers 50 large cities worldwide (selected on factors which include regional representation and availability of data), based its ranking on an average score across four categories: digital security, health security, infrastructure safety and personal safety. In 2014, data from the Jakarta Police showed that 213 out of every 100,000 Jakartans were victims of various crimes.
The Governor of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia), Agus Martowardojo, said that the Indonesian economy can grow more than six percent provided that several important structural reforms will be implemented in order to avoid the middle income trap. This trap occurs when rapidly growing economies stagnate at middle-income levels for many years, thereby failing to reach a high income level (as has been the case with Brazil, Mexico, South Africa and other middle income countries from the early 1980s to the mid-2000s).
Opinions about the growth prospects of Indonesia's property sector in 2014 have turned rather negative amid the country's slowing economic expansion, tighter monetary policy (mortgage restrictions and higher down payment rules), the depreciating rupiah and uncertainties about the country's legislative and presidential elections in mid-2014. In 2012 and the first half of 2013, Indonesia's property sector had been investors' darling showing spectacular growth amid a booming economy, high housing demand and a low interest environment.
Latest Columns Urbanization
Indonesia, with a population of approximately 267 million, is the largest market for the Food Service Industry in the ASEAN region. With rising incomes amongst the growing middle class and changes in lifestyles, the Food Service Industry in Indonesia is expected to show a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2018 and 2023 of 7.06 percent.
The year 2016 was a good one in terms of foreign investment in Jakarta's residential property sector even though Indonesia's property market remained sluggish. Various foreign property developers - including China's state-owned China Communications Construction Group (CCCG), Japanese firms Mitsubishi Corporation and Tokyu Land Corporation as well as Hong Kong's HongKong Land and Malaysia's Sime Darby Group - announced to engage in big property projects (in and around the capital city of Jakarta) that have a combined value of USD $2.8 billion.
Next week Indonesia's financial and stock markets are closed for Idul Fitri (also known as Lebaran or Eid al-Fitr), the celebrations that mark the end of the holy Islamic fasting month (Ramadan). As usual, during the Ramadan month (that started in early June) business activities in Indonesia start to slow and this slowdown will reach its "peak" during the Idul Fitri holiday, a national holiday (from Monday 4 July to Friday 8 July) when some 17.6 million Indonesians who live and work in the bigger cities will return to their places of origin for a couple of days (a tradition called mudik).
The residential property sector of Indonesia remains attractive in 2015 despite several factors having managed to slow growth over the past two years. In this column I discuss the factors that have slowed growth in Indonesia’s property sector and how Indonesian authorities (such as the central bank and Financial Services Authority) responded to these challenges through new regulations. Lastly, I provide an update on the recently announced plan of the Indonesian government to allow foreign ownership of luxurious apartments.
The Indonesian economy, from the expenditure side, is highly dominated by domestic demand. From Q1-2010 to Q1-2015, the average role of domestic demand reached 99.5 percent, with the lowest level at 96.8 percent. The positive side of this situation is that the Indonesian economy is relatively resilient to external factors. History shows that despite the US subprime mortgage crisis and financial crisis in Europe, economic growth in Indonesia remained relatively high and consistent compared to other countries.
Although most Indonesians still prefer to eat rice and noodles as part of their daily diet, an increasing number of Indonesians (particularly those who live in the urban environments and have adjusted to an ‘urban lifestyle’) have started to consume cereals and bread. In fact, Indonesia has become the world’s second-largest wheat importer and ranks among East Asia’s largest cereal importers. The country is dependent on these imports as domestic production of grains is close to zero (the climate doesn’t suit cultivation).
Indonesia's residential property market has shown robust growth in recent years as demand from the country's rapidly expanding middle class for mid-level and luxury property increased steadily amid a low interest rate environment and robust national economic growth. Demand for property is also backed by high consumer confidence as a recent Nielsen survey shows that Indonesians are among the world's most confident consumers. Indonesians' consumer confidence was at a four-year high in the fourth quarter of 2013.
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