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The macroeconomic data that were released by Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS) on Monday 5 February 2024 were largely in line with expectations. However, there is some room for concern as Indonesia’s household consumption wasn’t as strong as we hoped it to be amid the festive season (Christmas and New Year celebrations).
While we had hoped to see Indonesia’s gross domestic product (or GDP) growth rate at 5.0 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2023 (Q3-2023), it was not a real surprise to see the growth rate fall slightly below that level.
Indonesia’s Statistical Office (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) shared some great news on 7 August 2023. The agency announced that Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.17 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the second quarter of 2023. This was better than most forecasts, including our projection of 4.9 percent (y/y).
Despite the challenging international conditions (aggressive monetary tightening in the United States, the Russo-Ukrainian war, stagflation, a looming recession across the West, and weak growth in China) and a significant rise in the prices of subsidized fuels on 3 September 2022, Indonesia posted another solid economic growth rate.
Over the past decade or so many analysts – including us – have pointed out that the structural deficit in Indonesia’s current account balance is a serious weakness.
On Friday 5 November 2021 Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS) released the official Q3-2021 gross domestic product (GDP) data for Indonesia. While we had predicted a mediocre performance (based on the country’s lackluster retail sales, consumer confidence, credit growth and low inflation in this year’s third quarter), the figure was still below our forecast.
On 5 May 2021, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS), released the latest gross domestic product (GDP) data of Indonesia, covering the first quarter of 2021. As expected, the economic recession persisted into Q1-2021 for Southeast Asia’s largest economy.
While the COVID-19 crisis has seriously disrupted consumption, production, trade, and investment around the globe, this crisis apparently has only a limited impact on direct investment realization in Indonesia. After experiencing a relatively modest hiccup only in Q2-2020, investment recovered to record high levels in subsequent quarters. Does that make sense? What is going on here?
On 5 February 2021, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) announced that gross domestic product (GDP) of Southeast Asia’s largest economy contracted 2.19 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the fourth quarter of 2020. This was less severe compared to Indonesia Investments’ outlook of -2.50 percent (y/y).
On Thursday 5 November 2020 Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) announced that Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 3.49 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2020. This pace of economic contraction in Q3-2020 was slightly more severe than we had predicted. Indonesia Investments had its outlook for Indonesia’s Q3-2020 economic growth at the range of -3.0 to -2.5 percent (y/y).
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In order to boost overall economic expansion as well as growth of several local industries, it is important for the city of Yogyakarta - located in the center of Java island - to see more infrastructure development. The local government has the crucial task to either invest directly in infrastructure development or to encourage private investment in infrastructure development by safeguarding a conducive regulatory environment and attractive investment environment.
Those who have business interests in Panama and seek their dream house in the beautiful hills of this Central American country, or those who search an interesting investment object in Panama's property sector, now have a great opportunity at their disposal. One of the most beautiful luxury villas in Panama is now for sale. Insiders in Panama's property market call this "a unique object".
It is worrying that of total foreign investment commitments in Indonesia, only about 50 percent becomes actual investment. The other half decides - after initially being interested - not to pursue investment in Indonesia. Although not in all cases, it is believed that Indonesia's difficult investment climate scares away part of the (potential) investment community, specifically bureaucracy (red tape) and the lack of sufficient hard and soft infrastructure.
Thomas Lembong, Head of Indonesia's Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), said the 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y) economic growth pace of Indonesia in the second quarter of 2017 was rather disappointing as consumption remained bleak. Only Indonesia's export and investment realization showed an improvement, Lembong added. But, overall, Indonesia's economic growth stagnated.
With the Indonesian economy estimated to expand at a stable pace of 5.0-6.0 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the years ahead, the country's supply of energy needs to be raised. If not, businesses will increasingly be plagued by blackouts, while the price of energy rises (causing growing production costs). The upstream oil and gas industry - that involves exploration, development and production - therefore has a vital role to play in Indonesia's energy supply and economy.
The Investment Coordinating Board of Indonesia (in Indonesian: Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal, or BKPM) reported that total direct investment realization in Indonesia was recorded at IDR 170.9 trillion in the second quarter of 2017. This constitutes a 12.7 percent growth pace from IDR 151.6 trillion worth of total direct investment in the same quarter one year earlier. Thomas Lembong, Head of BKPM, said investment realization managed to absorb 345,323 Indonesian workers in Q2-2017.
Unilever Indonesia, one of the largest consumer goods producers in Indonesia, will continue to focus on the strengthening of its production lines. The company plans to invest up to USD $500 million over the next five years. Sancoyo Antarikso, External Relations Director & Corporate Secretary at Unilever Indonesia, said the funds will be used to expand production capacity of the company's nine factories across Indonesia.
Around the globe there are plenty of fraudulent investment scams offered to investors (for example the "ponzi scheme", "pump and dump", and many others). This also occurs in Indonesia, or, related to Indonesia. Perpetrators can be Indonesian or foreign. In case of foreigners, the offshore investing scheme is a popular scheme (and a fairly simple one in the era of Internet). Criminals offer victims a lucrative investment opportunity in Indonesia, promising big profits. However, investors will never see their money again.
Donald Trump becoming next US president in January 2017 will not affect foreign direct investment (FDI) in Indonesia according to the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM). Trump's election caused a huge wave of uncertainty in financial markets worldwide. However, the BKPM remains committed to its investment realization targets (including both domestic and foreign direct investment) of IDR 594.8 trillion (approx. USD $44.7 billion) in 2016 and IDR 631.5 trillion (approx. USD $47.5 billion) in 2017.
According to the latest data from Indonesia's Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), investment realization (consisting of both foreign and domestic direct investment) in Indonesia grew 10.7 percent (y/y) to IDR 155.3 trillion in the third quarter of 2016. Cumulatively, investment realization in Indonesia stands at 453.4 trillion in the first nine months of 2016, achieving about 76 percent of the full-year target (IDR 594.8 trillion). Most likely, the BKPM's full-year target will be achieved.
