Bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) memprediksi melihat inflasi Indonesia di bulan Juli dalam cakupan 0,46 - 0,60% pada basis month-on-month (m/m). Inflasi di Indonesia selalu memuncak pada bulan Juni, Juli dan Agustus karena peningkatan belanja konsumen karena perayaan Ramadan & Idul Fitri dan juga awal tahun ajaran baru. Pada awal bulan ini, Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) Agus Martowadojo mengatakan bahwa inflasi tahunan diprediksi untuk turun di bawah 7% di bulan Juli, dari 7,26% (y/y) di bulan Juni.

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Menurut Bloomberg Dollar Index, rupiah terus melemah pada hari Senin (20/07). Mata uang Indonesia melemah 0,31% menjadi Rp 13.395 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS), level terlemahnya sejak 1998 waktu negara ini dilanda oleh Krisis Finansial Asia. Sementara itu, aktivitas Bank Indonesia masih terbatas sampai hari Rabu (22/07) karena libur umum (perayaan Idul Fitri), menyebabkan bank sentral untuk sementara tidak mempublikasikan Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR).

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Indonesia mencatat surplus perdagangan 477 juta dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada bulan Juni 2015, surplus perdagangan ke-7 secara beruntun. Meskipun begitu, menurut data terakhir dari BPS, diterbitkan pada hari Rabu (14/07), ekspor Indonesia pada Juni ini jatuh 12,8% (year-on-year) menjadi 13,4 miliar dollar AS, sementara impor jatuh 17,4% (year-on-year) menjadi 12,9 miliar dollar AS. Angka-angka ini menunjukkan bahwa surplus perdagangan Indonesia terutama disebabkan oleh permintaan domestik yang lemah dan lebih melambat daripada permintaan global (yang terus melambat juga). Kondisi ini meningkatkan kekuatiran mengenai pertumbuhan perekonomian domestik dan global.

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Seperti yang telah diprediksi, Bank Indonesia tidak mengubah tingkat suku bunganya pada pertemuan Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) pada hari Selasa (14/07). BI rate yang menjadi acuan dipertahankan pada 7,50%, sementara fasilitas simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi) dan suku bunga lending facility dipertahankan masing-masing pada 5,50% dan 8,00%. Bank Indonesia meyakini bahwa kondisi tingkat suku bunga saat ini sejalan dengan upaya untuk menurunkan inflasi dan juga mendukung rupiah yang melemah menjelang perkiraan pengetatan moneter lebih lanjut oleh Amerika Serikat (AS) di kemudian hari pada tahun ini.

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Kebanyakan analis setuju bahwa Bank Indonesia akan mempertahankan tingkat suku bunga yang sama dalam pertemuan Dewan Gubernur yang dijadwalkan untuk dilaksanakan pada hari Selasa 14 Juli 2015. Bank sentral Indonesia dipediksi akan mempertahankan suku bunga acuannya (BI rate) pada 7,50%, fasilitas simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi) pada 5,50%, dan suku bunga lending facility pada 8,00% karena tingkat inflasi Indonesia telah meningkat cepat baru-baru ini sementara rupiah mengalami tekanan karena faktor-faktor eksternal.

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International Monetary Fund (IMF) memotong proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi global di 2015 menjadi 3,3% pada basis year-on-year (y/y), dari 3,5% (y/y) sebelumnya, karena musim dingin yang keras mempengaruhi Amerika Serikat (AS) dan sejalan dengan itu menarik turun pertumbuhan global. Di kuartal 1 tahun 2015, perekonomian AS berkontraksi 0,2% (y/y). Terlebih lagi, kekacauan di Yunani dan Republik Rakyat Tiongkok menyebabkan volatilitas yang besar dalam pasar keuangan global, lembaga yang bermarkas di Washington ini menyatakan dalam sebuah update World Economic Outlook (WEO) pada hari Kamis (09/07).

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Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves fell USD $2.8 billion to USD $108.0 billion at the end of June 2015 (from USD $110.8 billion one month earlier). This fall was caused by foreign debt repayment and the use of foreign exchange to stabilize the rupiah exchange rate. Due to external pressures (particularly looming further monetary tightening in the USA this year and the possible Greek exit from the euro), the rupiah is the worst performing Asian currency tracked by Bloomberg so far in 2015, weakening about 7 percent against the US dollar.

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Survei terakhir Bank Indonesia menunjukkan bahwa keyakinan konsumen di Indonesia jatuh pada bulan Juni karena kekuatiran mengenai menurunnya ketersediaan lapangan pekerjaan serta penurunan pendapatan dan aktivitas bisnis. Bulan Juni, Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen bank sentral jatuh 1,5 poin menjadi 111,3. Sejauh ini di tahun ini, keyakinan konsumen Indonesia hanya naik di bulan Mei. Di bulan lainnya, indeks ini jatuh. Indeks ini dibuat berdasarkan pada sampel di 4.600 rumah tangga di 18 kota besar di Indonesia (skor 100 membatasi optimisme dari pesimisme).

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Pada 1 Juli 2015, Peraturan Bank Indonesia No. 17/3/PBI/2015 tentang Kewajiban Penggunaan Rupiah di Negara Kesatuan Republik Indonesia mulai berlaku. Peraturan BI ini, ditandatangani pada 31 Maret 2015, melarang penggunaan mata uang asing dalam transaksi di Indonesia dalam rangka memperdalam pasar domestik rupiah, menstabilkan rupiah (yang telah melemah terhadap dollar AS), dan mendorong ekspansi perekonomian. Undang-Undang sebelumnya (UU No. 7/2011) mengizinkan pihak-pihak yang terlibat dalam kontrak untuk membuat kesepakatan menggunakan mata uang lainnya (bukan rupiah) untuk pembayaran.

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Inflasi Indonesia berakselerasi menjadi 7,26% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di Juni 2015 karena harga bahan pangan yang lebih tinggi yang dipicu oleh awal bulan Ramadan (bulan puasa yang suci bagi umat Islam). Perayaan musiman Ramadan dan dilanjutkan oleh Idul Fitri selalu menyebabkan tekanan inflasi di Indonesia karena konsumen meningkatkan belanja mereka. Meskipun daya beli masyarakat Indonesia telah menurun di beberapa bulan terakhir, direfleksikan dengan melambatnya penjualan mobil dan sepeda motor, barang-barang konsumen yang lebih murah seperti makanan, pakaian, sepatu dan tas saat ini sedang banyak terjual.

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Investors are eagerly waiting for the release of Indonesia's September inflation rate. Indonesia has been hit by high inflation since the government decided to increase prices of subsidized fuels at the end of June. High inflation limits its people's purchasing power and as domestic consumption accounts for about 55 percent of Indonesia's economic growth, it thus impacts negatively on GDP growth, particularly after Bank Indonesia raised its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) from 5.75 to 7.25 percent between June and September.

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Bank Indonesia amended its regulation concerning the Loan To Value (LTV) and Financing To Value (FTV) ratio for property credit and property-backed consumer loans. The LTV/FTV ratio is the ratio between the value of credit/financing that can be allocated by a bank and the corresponding value of collateral in the form of property when the loan is allocated. Property is real property that includes houses, vertical housing (apartments, flats, condominiums and penthouses), home offices and home stores.

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Indonesia's central bank, Bank Indonesia, expects deflation of about 0.9 percent in September 2013. Statistics Indonesia, on the other hand, believes there will be limited inflation this month. Both institutions agree, however, on a forecast of at least 9 percent of inflation over full-year 2013. The bank's September forecast is based on a survey that was conducted in the second week of September. This survey showed that food commodities and government administered prices eased.

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In order to avert a potential bubble in Indonesia's property sector, Bank Indonesia (the central bank of Indonesia) is planning to further tighten its monetary policy in the sector. After having raised the minimum down payment requirement on housing loans to 30 percent for first home ownership (thus a loan-to-value ratio of 70 percent) in June 2012, Bank Indonesia now intends to prohibit credits for the purchase of a second, third (or more) house that has not been built yet (still in the preconstruction phase). This new rule is expected to be introduced this month.

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Market participants are waiting for the outcome of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, which will deal with the future of the quantitative easing program. The wait and see attitude of investors made the benchmark index of Indonesia (IHSG) fall 1.20 percent to 4,463.25 points. Few big cap stocks were able to rise and although some second liners were up, it was not enough to push the IHSG into the green zone. The rupiah continued to weaken and foreign investors were again mostly selling their Indonesian assets.

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Rising indices on Wall Street at the end of last week were a major factor behind rising stock indices in Asia, including Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG), on Monday (16/09). For market players this development was a sign to enter the market. Moreover, expectation has emerged that the Federal Reserve will not take any drastic decisions in the FOMC meeting (on 17-18 September) regarding its quantitative easing program. This expectation has calmed down markets. Indonesia's IHSG rose 3.35 percent to 4,522.54 points.

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Despite concerns that Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) would weaken on Thursday's trading day (12/09), the index ended 0.17 percent up to 4,356.61 points. Indices on Wall Street and in Asia impacted positively on the IHSG and kept foreign investors increasing their stock portfolios in Indonesia. Moreover, the Bank Indonesia's decision to raise the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) by 25 basis points to 7.25 percent was generally well-received by investors. Banking stocks helped to support the IHSG.

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It was decided at the Board of Governors’ meeting (RDG) of Bank Indonesia on 12 September 2013 to raise the BI Rate by 25 bps to 7.25%, the rate on the Lending Facility by 25 bps to 7.25% and the rate on the Deposit Facility by 25 bps to 5.50%. This action forms part of the follow-up measures taken to reinforce the policy mix instituted by Bank Indonesia, which focuses on controlling inflation, stabilizing the rupiah exchange rate and ensuring the current account deficit is managed to a sustainable level.

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Without any real negative global reasons, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) was down 0.20 percent to 4,349.42 points. Apparently, market participants were looking for profit taking after the index rose sharply in the last couple of days. There may also have been the psychological influence of the gaps at 4,191-4,225 and 4,072-4,102 that still need to be closed. Will the IHSG close these? Compared to the general upward trend of Asian indices, it seems strange if the IHSG would deviate from this trend only to close the gaps.

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According to global credit rating and research agency Fitch Ratings, Indonesia's major banks are robust against the rupiah currency slide due to their low unhedged foreign currency exposure, strong loss-absorption cushions and - in some cases - foreign ownership. The slowdown in the economy will weigh on these (rated) banks' operating environment, but is unlikely to damage their credit profiles to any great extent. Below we provide Fitch Ratings' report. This report can also be accessed on their website.

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