Meskipun kebanyakan pasar saham di Asia masih di wilayah merah, melanjutkan penurunan pada hari Senin, saham Indonesia dan rupiah berhasil melambung pada Selasa (5/1). Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) naik 0,70% menjadi 4.557,82 poin. Sementara itu, rupiah Indonesia naik 0,37% menjadi Rp 13.892 per dollar Amerika Serikat (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Apa yang terjadi pada perdagangan hari ini dan mengapa ada perbedaan antara aset Indonesia dan tren Asian secara umum?

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Berlawan dengan harapan, saham Indonesia dan rupiah memiliki awal yang lemah di tahun yang baru. Pada hari Senin (4/1) Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) turun 1,46% menjadi 4.525,92 poin, sementara rupiah terdepresiasi 0,82% menjadi Rp 13.943 per dollar Amerika Serikat (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Kinerja saham Indonesia ini sejalan dengan kinerja saham di seluruh dunia. Perdagangan saham Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) bahkan dihentikan dua kali karena indeksnya merosot. Apa yang terjadi hari ini?

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Rupiah Indonesia meneruskan penguatan yang luar biasa pada hari Selasa (22/12). Mata uang ini naik 0,98% menjadi Rp 13.672 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada pukul 11:10 Waktu Indonesia Barat (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Rupiah telah pulih dari level rendahnya pada Rp 14.123 per dollar AS pada hari Senin 14 Desember menjadi Rp 13.672 per dollar AS, naik 3,2% dalam waktu sekitar satu minggu. Ada beberapa hal yang menjelaskan kinerja yang luar biasa ini.

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Rupiah Indonesia menguat secara signifikan terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada hari Senin (21/12) kendati ada prediksi bahwa rupiah akan menjadi mata uang dengan performa terburuk di Asia pada tahun 2016 akibat capital outflows (karena suku bunga AS direncanakan akan semakin dinaikkan pada tahun 2016), cadangan devisa Indonesia yang menurun, dan harga-harga komoditi yang terus-menerus rendah. Berdasarkan pada Bloomberg Dollar Index, rupiah telah menguat 1,13% menjadi Rp 13.760 per dollar AS pada pukul 14:20 Waktu Indonesia Barat (WIB) pada hari Senin (21/12).

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Indeks-indeks saham di Asia Tenggara jatuh pada hari Jumat (18/12), dipimpin oleh indeks-indeks acuan di Thailand dan Indonesia. Pasar-pasar Asia ini mengikuti koreksi global yang terjadi setelah investor mempertimbangkan dampak yang mungkin terjadi dari kenaikan suku bunga Federal Reserve. Saham-saham di Amerika Serikat (AS) dan Eropa turun pada hari Kamis dan hari Jumat, sementara harga minyak dan komoditi-komoditi lainnya terus menurun. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Indonesia turun 1,92 persen menjadi 4,468.65 poin.

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Saham dan rupiah Indonesia merespon sangat positif terhadap keputusan Federal Reserve Amerika Serikat (AS) untuk menaikkan Fed Fund Rate yang menjadi acuan sebesar 25 basis poin pada Rabu (16/12). Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) melonjak 1,62% menjadi 4.555,96 poin, sementara rupiah menguat 0,44% menjadi Rp 14.009 per dollar AS. Tidak hanya saham di Indonesia tetapi saham global juga sangat naik pada akhir dari ketidakpastian yang berkelanjutan mengenai waktu kenaikan suku bunga AS.

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Bursa saham di Asia mengalami cuaca buruk karena para investor menarik dana dari pasar negara-negara berkembang. Pada pukul 11:25 WIB, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Indonesia telah jatuh 1,11% menjadi 4.344,69 poin, sementara rupiah telah melemah 0,54% menjadi Rp 14.068 per dollar Amerika Serikat (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Para investor mencari aset yang (lebih) aman haven karena Federal Reserve diperkirakan akan menaikkan Fed Fund Rate (untuk pertama kalinya dalam hampir satu dekade) pada pertemuan Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) berikutnya (dijadwalkan pada 15-16 Desember).

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On the last trading day of the week, Indonesian stocks plunged 1.63 percent to 4,393.52 points, while the rupiah depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 13,984 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Most Asian indices were weaker as investors are bracing for - most likely - the first Fed Fund Rate hike in nearly a decade. On 15-16 December the US Federal Reserve will hold a crucial policy meeting. Tighter monetary policy in the USA leads to capital outflows from Indonesia as the country is regarded particularly vulnerable to such a move.

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Asian stock indices - including Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index which reopened after a market holiday - were mostly in red territory on Thursday (10/12) as investors are cautious ahead of the looming US interest rate hike, expected to be decided upon at the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting (15-16 December), as well as low oil prices and falling US stocks overnight. Moreover, the central bank of China allowed its yuan to depreciate further (to a near four-month low), hence resulting in the resurgence of some fears of a currency war in Asia.

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The Indonesian rupiah is again flirting with the IDR 13,900 per US dollar level after the central bank announced on Monday (07/12) that Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves fell further in November. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated by 0.19 percent to IDR 13,887 per US dollar at 15:30 pm local Jakarta time on Tuesday (08/12). Other factors that put pressure on the rupiah are the low oil price (giving rise to a strong US dollar), weak trade data from China, and the looming US interest rate hike.

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Robust rupiah appreciation in the month of November 2018 has taken many people – such as policymakers, businessmen, and analysts, including us – by surprise.

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Stock markets in Asia are mixed, yet tepid on Friday (16/12) after the US Federal Reserve raised its interest rate regime for the second time in a decade on Wednesday (14/12). Although the Fed's move was widely anticipated (and therefore already "priced in" to a high degree) it still resulted in some capital outflows from Asia's stock markets on Thursday (13/12). Japan, as usual, is the notable exception as US dollar strength (or yen weakness) makes Japan's export-oriented stocks more attractive.

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Indonesian President Joko Widodo said market participants should reduce their focus on the US dollar as benchmark for Indonesia's rupiah currency. Instead of the US dollar, it is better to use China's renminbi, the European Union's euro, or Japan's yen as a benchmark for the rupiah as these rates better reflect the fundamentals of Southeast Asia's largest economy. The rupiah has come under pressure against the US dollar after Donald Trump's victory in the 2016 US presidential election.

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Many things happened this week. A devastating terror attack in Nice (France) killed at least 84 people, while - at the time of writing - a coup attempt occurred in Turkey (that seems to have failed). However, these events have little impact on the performance of global stocks and currencies (with the obvious exception of the Turkish lira). Wall Street touched record highs, while Indonesian stocks rose to a 13-month high and the Indonesian rupiah strengthened to a four-month high. Lets take a closer look at the performance of these markets over the past week.

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Over the last few months, we have seen some impressive gains in the Indonesian rupiah (IDR) relative to the US dollar (USD). When we compare the performance of the IDR against the rest of the emerging market space, we can see that its gains are behind only the Brazilian real (BRL) and the Malaysian ringgit (MYR) for the period. This has prompted a wave of foreign export purchases as Indonesian consumers look to take advantage of the stronger currency.

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Indonesian assets weakened on Friday (06/11) on expectation that US non-farm payrolls and US employment data would improve, suggesting that a Fed Fund Rate hike may occur in December 2015. Such expectations were correct. After Indonesian and other Asian markets had closed on Friday, the US Labor Department announced that October payrolls rose 271,000 (the largest increase this year), while the US unemployment rate touched a seven-year low at 5 percent. Furthermore, the average hourly earnings over the past 12 months climbed by the most since 2009.

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After a real roller coaster ride, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) climbed 0.35 percent to 4,446.20 points at the end of the trading week. The majority of key stock indices across the globe tended to strengthen on Friday after a week characterized by severe volatility amid concern about the economic situation in China.

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Although Indonesian stocks managed to rebound, the rupiah continued to depreciate against the US dollar today (25/08). However, rupiah weakening was limited as Bank Indonesia was closely monitoring and intervening in markets to support the rupiah. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesian rupiah depreciated 0.03 percent to IDR 14,054 per US dollar. As significant further rupiah weakening is assumed to seriously undermine confidence in the rupiah, the central bank’s intervention efforts are well received by investors.

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The Indonesian rupiah touched a 17-year low as the currency continued to depreciate amid persistent bullish US dollar momentum. The rupiah weakened to IDR 13,539 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Friday (31/07). The US Commerce Department announced on Thursday (30/07) that US gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at 2.3 percent (year-on-year) in the second quarter of 2015, giving rise to heightened expectation that the US Federal Reserve will raise its key interest rate soon.

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For most of this year, the Indonesian rupiah has met selling pressure against the US Dollar. Year-to-date price activity in the USD/IDR shows a rise from below IDR 12,250 to new highs above IDR 13,330 per US dollar. For Indonesian export companies, this is great news as it means that their products will be cheaper for foreign consumers to buy. For the domestic economy, this creates a different set of implications as it also makes it less likely that foreign investors will be looking to buy into Indonesian assets.

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