Due to rising output amid the start of the seasonal increase in production in Indonesia and Malaysia, the world’s two largest crude palm oil (CPO) producers, CPO prices may touch a six-year low in 2015. According to Dorab Mistry, Director at Godrej International, there is one factor that may be able to block CPO prices from reaching this low and that is the successful implementation of Indonesia’s biodiesel program as this would absorb a significant portion of Indonesian CPO output hence reducing downward pressures on CPO prices.

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After having decided to introduce export levies for palm oil, the Indonesian government is considering to impose similar measures on rubber, coffee and other commodities in a move to generate capital to invest in the country’s agriculture industry. Per April 2015, a USD $50 (per metric ton) export levy is imposed on crude palm oil (CPO) shipments, and a USD $30 (per metric ton) export levy on processed palm oil export products. Proceeds from these CPO levies will be allocated to finance the government’s biodiesel program.

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Pengapalan minyak sawit mentah (crude palm oil/CPO) dari Malaysia naik 18% pada basis month-to-month (m/m) pada bulan Maret karena perusahaan-perusahaan segera mengekspor CPO sebelum penerapan (kembali) pajak ekspor 4,5% di bulan April. Pajak ekspor ini telah dihapus sejak September 2014 dalam usaha untuk mendongkrak permintaan dan harga CPO. Diprediksi bahwa produksi rata-rata CPO di Malaysia naik 18% (m/m) menjadi 1,32 juta ton di bulan Maret, yang juga berarti bahwa produksi minyak sawit di Malaysia meningkat untuk pertama kalinya di dalam 7 bulan.

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Pemerintah Indonesia berencana untuk merevisi kebijakan pajak ekspor minyak sawit mentah (CPO). Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian Sofyan Djalil mengatakan bahwa Pemerintah berencana untuk menerapkan pajak tetap senilai 50 dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) per metrik ton untuk ekspor CPO ketika harga CPO menurun di bawah batasan yang dibuat Pemerintah yaitu 750 dollar AS per ton. Hal ini menyiratkan bahwa tidak mungkin lagi bagi para eksportir minyak sawit Indonesia utuk melakukan pengiriman tanpa biaya. Saat ini, para eksportir minyak sawit bisa mengekspor CPO tanpa biaya karena harga CPO telah berada di bawah batasan 750 dollar AS sejak September 2014.

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Diperkirakan bahwa ekspor minyak sawit mentah (crude palm oil/CPO) dan hasil olahannya jatuh pada Februari 2015 karena permintaan yang lambat dari India dan Republik Rakyat Tionghoa (RRT), dua negara pengimpor minyak sawit terbesar di dunia. Ekspor juga menurun karena produksi kedelai dunia meningkat (minyak kedelai adalah bahan pengganti yang mirip dengan minyak sawit untuk digunakan sebagai bahan makanan dan biodiesel). Berdasarkan pada median dari enam penghasil minyak sawit, perkiraan para analis dan lembaga, pengiriman minyak sawit Indonesia (termasuk bungkil inti sawit) jatuh 6% pada basis month-to-month (m/m) menjadi 1,7 juta metrik ton di bulan Februari.

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Due to the Indonesian government’s plan to increase biofuel subsidies from IDR 1,500 per liter to IDR 4,000 per liter - in a move to protect the domestic biofuel industry - palm oil futures climbed the most in 28 months. Amid the world’s current low crude palm oil (CPO) prices, Indonesian biofuel producers have it rough as production costs exceed market prices and therefore requested the government to raise biofuel subsidies to offset losses. If approved by Indonesian authorities then this move should result in higher palm oil demand.

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Indonesia’s production of crude palm oil (CPO) is estimated to reach 31 million tons this year, up from an expected 29.5 million tons in 2014, according to the Indonesian Palm Oil Board (DMSI). Similar to last year, CPO production growth is limited due to unconducive weather conditions in the world’s largest producer and exporter of palm oil. Moreover, old trees have become less productive, while the younger generation of planted trees have not yet reached an optimal production age.

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The world’s two largest crude palm oil (CPO) producers and exporters, Indonesia and Malaysia, are expected to maintain their zero percent export tariffs for CPO in January 2015 according to Dorab Mistry, Executive at Godrej Industries Ltd (India's leading manufacturer of oleochemicals), in an interview to international news agency Reuters. Authorities in Malaysia (since September 2014) and Indonesia (since October 2014) have implemented duty-free CPO shipments in an effort to boost global CPO demand and prices.

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Exports of Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivatives may increase to 21.6 million tons (collecting about USD $16.0 - 17.3 billion in foreign exchange) in 2015. Meanwhile, Indonesian CPO production is estimated to reach 32.5 million tons next year while the CPO price is estimated to range between USD $740 - 800 per ton. However, provided that the Indonesian government will extend its current zero export tariff scheme for CPO exports, then the country’s CPO exports are expected to accelerate.

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Exports of Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivatives increased 45.8 percent month-on-month (m/m) to 2.47 million metric tons in October 2014 primarily supported by the zero export tariff that was implemented by the Indonesian government per 1 October. Indonesia has a mechanism that when the average CPO price (which is calculated using international and local CPO prices) drop below USD $750 per metric ton, the export tax is scrapped. In early September, Malaysia had already implemented a zero CPO export tax.

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Over the past couple of months we have informed on the shortage of cooking oil on the Indonesian market, the subsequent inflationary pressures this shortage caused, and the policies that were imposed by the government to tackle this shortage. But, we did not devote an entire article to this topic.

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Although there is plenty of opposition to – and criticism on – Indonesia for allowing crude palm oil (or CPO) to play a big role in the domestic economy (Indonesia being the world’s largest producer and exporter of CPO), the country is currently feeling the windfall from soaring CPO prices. And, it is contributing to Indonesia’s recovery from the severe – and still ongoing – novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis.

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The Indonesian government is eager to boost domestic crude palm oil (CPO) production, but not at the expense of tropical forest (by adding new oil palm plantations). Instead, a new government program aims to replant 20,000 hectares of smallholder palm oil plantations in 2017 under the condition that farmers meet the requirements that are stipulated by Indonesian Sustainable Palm Oil (ISPO) certification.

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The higher crude palm oil (CPO) price will have a positive impact on the corporate earnings of Indonesian CPO producers, including Sampoerna Agro. Benchmark palm oil futures for March 2017 delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange were at 3,161 ringgit (approx. USD $706) per ton at the end of last week, near a four and a half year high. However, not all analysts advise investors to purchase shares of Sampoerna Agro, a company that is listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.

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Indonesia's Industry Ministry selected the industrial estate in Berau (East Kalimantan) as the center for the downstream palm oil industry in Kalimantan. Furthermore, Panggah Susanto, the Industry Ministry's Director General for Agriculture industry, said the government proposes to select Berau as one of the palm oil centers within the Palm Oil Green Economic Zone (POGEZ) scheme. Berau is chosen to replace Bontang because the former has 3,400 hectares of (clear and clean) industrial land available, while land in Bontang still falls under "protected forest" status.

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Expectation of rising fresh fruit bunches (FFB) and crude palm oil (CPO) volumes in the second half of the year should boost the corporate earnings of Astra Agro Lestari, one of Indonesia's leading agribusiness companies. Meanwhile, sentiments related to the La Nina weather phenomenon and rising CPO demand on the back of the Indonesian government's biodiesel program should support CPO prices. Astra Agro Lestari is the plantation unit of diversified conglomerate Astra International.

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Indonesian President Joko Widodo has ordered the nation's Minister of Environment and Forestry Siti Nurbaya to issue a moratorium on new palm oil concessions in a number of provinces. Although Widodo wants Indonesia - the world's top producer and exporter of crude palm oil (CPO) - to raise CPO output, he believes this increase can be achieved by increasing productivity of existing palm oil plantations, not by adding new plantations. Indonesia is often criticized by environmentalist groups for its forestry policies and poor law enforcement (which led to the severe haze that spread through Southeast Asia last year).

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Crude palm oil (CPO) production in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to decline due to the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon (that brought a prolonged dry season to Southeast Asia). CPO production in Malaysia could fall between 1.5 and 2 million tons this year according to Dorab Mistry, Director at Godrej International. Declining output in the world's two leading palm oil producers and exporters implies that palm oil prices should be able to rise further. At the start of this week palm oil futures traded in Kuala Lumpur (June delivery) rose to 2,779 ringgit (approx. USD $695) per ton, the highest level since March 2014.

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Agribusiness company Astra Agro Lestari, one of Indonesia's leading crude palm oil (CPO) producers, is expected to show a better performance in 2016 on an expected rise in palm oil prices. Although palm oil futures currently feel the negative effects of tumbling global crude oil prices, these futures are estimated to have risen to about 2,700 ringgit per ton by May 2016 from around 2,385 (approx. USD $540)  per ton currently.

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The world's two largest crude palm oil (CPO) producers and exporters - Indonesia and Malaysia - signed an agreement on Saturday (21/11) for the establishment of an intergovernmental palm oil council, called the Council of Palm Oil Producer Countries (CPOPC), that aims to control the global CPO supply, stabilize prices, promote sustainable practices in the palm oil industry, and enhance the welfare of oil palm smallholders. Both countries will invest USD $5 million each for the set up of this new council. Its headquarters will be located in Jakarta.

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