On 9 August 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic subjects such as an analysis of the recent performance of the rupiah, an analysis of Q2-2015 GDP growth, updates on inflation as well as manufacturing, and unemployment in Indonesia.

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As Indonesia’s economic growth continued to slow in the second quarter of 2015, the Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo) warned of increasing unemployment in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Each 1 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth can generate between 200,000 and 300,000 new jobs in Indonesia. As such, when economic growth slows, society misses out on new jobs and with around two million Indonesians entering the labor force each year, job generation is an important task of the government.

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Inflation in Indonesia accelerated more than expected in July 2015. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesian inflation rose 0.93 percent (m/m) in July, primarily due to higher food and transportation costs caused by the Ramadan month and Idul Fitri celebrations. During this month, the people traditionally increase consumer spending (triggering higher food prices) and millions of people travel back to their places of origin for the Idul Fitri festivities (triggering higher transportation costs).

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The pace of economic growth of Indonesia is expected to remain below five percent year-on-year (y/y) in the second quarter of 2015 according to Reuters poll involving 22 analysts. In fact, the poll shows that further slowing economic growth is expected. In the first quarter of 2015, Indonesia’s economic growth came at 4.71 percent (y/y), the weakest growth pace in six years. According to the poll, analysts see a gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 4.61 percent (y/y) in the second quarter of 2015.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects to see Indonesian inflation in July in the range of 0.46 - 0.60 percent month-on-month (m/m). Inflation in Indonesia always peaks during the months June, July and August due to increased consumer spending in the context of Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations as well as the start of the new school season. Earlier this month, Governor Agus Martowadojo said to expect annual inflation to dip below 7 percent in July, from 7.26 percent (y/y) in June.

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As expected Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) refrained from adjusting its interest rate regime at Tuesday’s Board of Governor’s meeting (14/07). The key BI rate was kept at 7.50 percent, while the overnight deposit rate (Fasbi) and lending facility rate were left at 5.50 percent and 8.00 percent, respectively. Bank Indonesia believes that the current interest rate environment is in line with its efforts to bring down inflation while supporting Indonesia’s ailing rupiah ahead of expected further monetary tightening in the USA later this year.

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Most analysts agree that the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) will leave its interest rate regime unchanged at the Board of Governors’ Meeting that is scheduled for Tuesday 14 July 2015. Indonesia’s central bank is expected to maintain its key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, the overnight deposit facility rate (Fasbi) at 5.50 percent, and the lending facility rate at 8.00 percent as the country’s inflation rate has recently accelerated while the rupiah has been under pressure due to external factors.

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In line with expectation and the historic trend, Indonesia’s car sales rose - on a monthly basis - in June 2015 ahead of the Idul Fitri celebrations (that mark the end of the Islamic holy fasting month). Car sales in Indonesia usually increase ahead of Idul Fitri (also known as Lebaran), a tradition which involves the exodus of millions of Indonesians from the cities to their places of origin. Before the journey to the villages a portion of these travelers are eager to buy a new car, a decision often influenced by promotional campaigns and discount programs.

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The Indonesian government revised its 2015 economic growth target. Sofyan Djalil, Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, stated on Friday (03/07) that the government’s previous target was unrealistically high at 5.8 percent (y/y) given the sluggish international and domestic economic context. The government revised down the GDP growth target of 2015 to 5.2 percent (y/y). Djalil said that the global economy is forecast to grow 2.9 percent (y/y) in 2015 from an earlier estimate of 3.5 percent (y/y).

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The latest survey of Bank Indonesia shows that consumer confidence in Indonesia has fallen in June 2015 on fears of shrinking job availability as well as declining income and business activity. Last month, the central bank’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 1.5 points to 111.3. This year so far, Indonesian consumer confidence only rose in May. In other months the index fell. Bank Indonesia’s Consumer Confidence Index is based on samples of 4,600 households in 18 major cities in Indonesia (100 separates optimism from pessimism).

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The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) experienced a mixed week. At the start of the week, the index rose, but towards the end of the week it weakened, although ending in the green on Friday. Recently, the IHSG has hit record levels, and this makes market participants worried that the index might fall in case there emerge negative market sentiments. These concerns are what made the index turn away from the next psychological boundary: 5,000 points.

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Usually, news about inflation is not well-received by market participants. Particularly when inflation turns out to be higher than expected. This time, however, something interesting happened in Indonesia. Although the country's March inflation rate was high (5.90 percent year-on-year), it was not followed up by a negative response of market players. In fact, the inflation rate seems to have strengthened the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG), which gained 0.40 percent on Tuesday.

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With a number of important global stock exchanges still closed due to Easter, it seemed that the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) lacked a reference point to which it could cling. It is also likely that market participants have already consumed most of the 2012 corporate company reports and are therefore not waiting for new data of listed companies. Moreover, today's announcement of the relative high inflation rate of March did not support the IHSG either.

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Yesterday, Statistics Indonesia (BPS), a non-departmental government institution, released Indonesia's export and import numbers of February 2013. Indonesia's imports reached US $15.32 billion, while its exports stood at US $14.99 billion. It has thus resulted in the continuation of a trade deficit (US $327.4 million). For Indonesia, which always reported trade surpluses until last year, it is a worrying scenario as the trade deficit and higher inflation put pressure on the IDR rupiah.

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This week, the World Bank published its Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ, edition March 2013) titled 'Pressures Mounting'. It reports on key developments over the past three months in Indonesia’s economy, and places these in a longer-term and global context. To read the whole report, please visit the World Bank's website at www.worldbank.org or download this edition directly through this link. Below we present the executive summary.

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After continuously reaching new record-high levels last week, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) finally had to give up some of its gain and closed 1.04 percent lower. Declining Asian stock markets (excluding Japan's main index) and fears that the IHSG had already reached a (too) high level impacted on today's result. Market participants, who recently confirmed good corporate annual results of many companies by buying, now engaged in profit taking.

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Apparently, yesterday's decline was only a small stumbling block for the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG). Indonesia's main indicator rebounded strongly after feeling the effects of stronger American stock indices that were positively influenced by a rise in Housing Index and Consumer Confidence. Moreover, the IHSG accelerated its gain after Asian stock markets and the opening of Europe's stock indices were positive.

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