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Today's Headlines Consumer Price Index
Indonesian inflation was mild at 0.59 percent month-on-month (m/m) in June 2018, a month in which rising consumption amid the latter half of the Ramadan month and subsequent Eid al-Fitr celebrations gives rise to inflationary pressures in the world's largest Muslim-majority nation. On an annual basis, Indonesian inflation eased to 3.12 percent (y/y), down from 3.23 percent (y/y) in the preceding month.
Indonesian inflation was slightly below estimates at 0.21 percent month-on-month (m/m) in May 2018 because food price increases were modest amid the Islamic fasting month (Ramadan), a period when consumption (hence demand for food) tends to rise. Although the Muslim community fasts during daytime, in the morning and evening many food parties are organized and therefore, overall, consumption rises during Ramadan and the subsequent Eid al-Fitr celebrations.
The pace of Indonesia's headline inflation was recorded at 0.10 percent month-on-month (m/m) in April 2018, a relatively high pace compared to April inflation in recent years. However, compared to the preceding month (when the consumer price index rose 0.20 percent m/m) Indonesian inflation eased. Meanwhile, on a year-on-year (y/y) basis inflation accelerated modestly to 3.41 percent (y/y) from 3.40 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. Calendar-year inflation accumulated to 1.09 percent in the first four months of 2018.
Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced that the nation's headline inflation rose 0.20 percent month-to-month (m/m) in March 2018 especially due to a rise in prices of fuel and spices. Meanwhile, on a year-on-year (y/y) basis, Indonesia's inflation rate accelerated to 3.40 percent in the third month of the year, up from 3.18 percent (y/y) in the preceding month but still comfortably within the central bank's target range of 2.5 - 4.5 percent (y/y) for full-year 2018.
The Statistics Agency (BPS) announced that Indonesia's headline inflation reached 0.17 percent month-on-month (m/m) in February 2018. This is a lower inflation rate compared to February 2017 (+0.23 percent m/m), hence the country's annual headline inflation eased to 3.18 percent (y/y) in February 2018, from 3.25 percent (y/y) in the preceding month.
Annual headline inflation in Indonesia eased to 3.25 percent year-on-year (y/y) in January 2018, from 3.61 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. The decline in Indonesian inflation was slightly steeper than had been estimated by analysts. The latest consumer price index data were released by Statistics Indonesia (BPS) just before noon on Thursday (01/02).
Indonesia's consumer price index (CPI) finished the year 2017 at the level of 3.61 percent year-on-year (y/y), slightly higher than analysts' forecasts but well within the government's full-year inflation target of 4.3 percent. Indonesian full-year 2017 inflation was the nation's highest annual inflation since 2014 when inflation surged to 8.36 percent (y/y) due to fuel subsidy reforms.
Indonesian inflation eased further in November 2017. Based on the latest official announcement of Statistics Indonesia (BPS), released on Monday morning (04/12), inflation was recorded at 0.20 percent month-on-month (m/m) in November, a relatively low figure for November inflation if we compare it to November inflation figures in recent years (see table below).
Indonesian inflation accelerated by a modest 0.01 percent month-on-month (m/m) in October 2017, considerably lower than the average monthly October inflation rate in recent years. Low October 2017 inflation primarily comes on the back of stable commodity prices. In fact, in terms of food prices, there actually occurred deflation in Southeast Asia's largest economy.
Indonesia's inflation rose by a mild 0.13 percent month-on-month (m/m) in September 2017, slightly above analysts' forecasts. On an annual basis, the country's inflation eased further to 3.72 percent (y/y). On Monday morning (02/10) Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) released the latest consumer price index data of Southeast Asia's largest economy.
Latest Columns Consumer Price Index
Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced today (01/09) that Indonesian inflation has eased slightly to 7.18 percent (y/y) in August 2015, from 7.26 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. On a month-on-month basis, inflation climbed 0.39 percent in August, below analysts’ expectations. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s manufacturing sector continued to contract in August, albeit conditions improved from the preceding month.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) predicts mounting inflationary pressures in the months June and July due to the Ramadan and Idul Fitri festivities, the possible impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon, and the new school year. Bank Indonesia expects to see inflation at 0.66 percent month-to-month (m/m) in June 2015, particularly driven by volatile food prices (a normal phenomenon ahead of Idul Fitri). On a year-on-year (y/y) basis, Indonesian inflation is expected to accelerate to 7.40 percent, from 7.15 percent in May.
Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced on Monday morning (04/05) that Indonesia’s inflation accelerated to 6.79 percent year-on-year (y/y) in April 2015. On a month-to-month basis, Indonesian inflation was recorded at 0.36 percent in April. Although this result is in line with analysts’ previous projections, April inflation realization is in sharp contrast with the ‘usual’ inflation pace in the fourth month of the year. Usually, Indonesia records slight deflation in April as prices ease amid the peak of the harvest season.
Inflation in Indonesia is expected to accelerate to 6.80 percent year-on-year (y/y) in April 2015, from 6.38 percent y/y in the previous month, according to the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia). As global oil prices have somewhat recovered from their recent lows, they add inflationary pressures in Indonesia (higher transportation costs). On a month-on-month (m/m) basis, Indonesian inflation is expected to be around 0.35 percent in April. This figure would be in sharp contrast to ‘normal’ April inflation.
According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia recorded monthly inflation of 0.17 percent in March 2015. It was the first month this year in which Indonesia recorded inflation. In January and February Indonesia experienced deflation of 0.24 percent (m/m) and 0.36 (m/m), respectively. March inflation was primarily the result of administered price adjustments: higher prices of (low-octane) gasoline, diesel and 12-kg LPG canisters. These adjustments were necessary amid rising oil prices and rupiah depreciation.
Indonesia’s consumer price index fell for the second consecutive month in February 2015, recording deflation of 0.36 percent month-on-month (m/m) in February, while on an annual basis Indonesian inflation eased to 6.29 percent (y/y), down from 6.96 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. Inflationary pressures declined primarily on the back of lower prices of chili peppers and fuel. Easing inflation in Southeast Asia’s largest economy may provide room for Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) to cut interest rates further this year.
Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo expects the country’s July 2014 inflation pace to come in the range of 0.80 to 1.20 percent (month-to-month). This relatively high inflation figure is caused by seasonal factors: the holy fasting month of Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations. Ahead and during these festivities, consumers tend to spend more, thus resulting in higher prices in the context of these Islamic celebrations. A recent Bank Indonesia survey showed that inflation already reached 0.80 percent in the first week of July.
Inflation in June 2014 increased by 0.43 percent (month-to-month, mtm) in accordance with the traditional pattern ahead of the holy fasting month of Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations. These occasions always trigger inflationary pressures as consumers increase spending. However, June inflation remains under control and is even lower than the historical average in June in recent years (0.56 percent mtm). On a year-on-year (yoy) basis, inflation stood at 6.70 percent, thus continuing the downward trend since the beginning of 2014.
Head of Statistics Indonesia (BPS) Suryamin announced on Tuesday (01/07) that the number of poor people in Indonesia declined slightly to 28.28 million people (or 11.25 percent of the total population) in March 2014, from 28.60 million (11.46 percent of the total population) in September 2013. However, compared to March last year, poverty has increased by 110,000 people due to high inflation and a slowing economy; economic growth slowed to 5.78 percent in 2013 and this decline continued to 5.21 percent in the first quarter of 2014.
Today (02/06), Statistics Indonesia released various important economic data that provide more insight into the state of the Indonesian economy. Two of these indicators - inflation and trade - are discussed in this column. Head of Statistics Indonesia Suryamin announced that inflation in May 2014 rose by 0.16 percent (slightly higher than previously expected), while the April 2014 trade balance of Indonesia recorded a USD $1.96 billion deficit. These data were not well received by the market, evidenced by sharp rupiah depreciation.
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