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On Thursday (6 April 2023), Indonesia Investments released the March 2023 edition of its monthly report. In this report we offer in-depth analyses of the key economic, political and social matters that impacted on Indonesia in the month of March 2023.
Digital banks will soon become a reality for Indonesians. Chief Executive of Banking Supervision of Indonesia's Financial Services Authority (in Indonesian: Otoritas Jasa Keuangan, or OJK) Heru Kristiyana recently confirmed that this supervisory agency is currently drafting regulations for the establishment of digital banks in Indonesia.
Rabobank Indonesia (short for PT Bank Rabobank International Indonesia) has announced that it is to phase out its operations in Indonesia starting per direct. The decision was made by the bank's shareholders. Fierce competition in Indonesia's banking industry, which particularly hurts the smaller banks, is believed to be the main reason behind the decision.
Two banks, both state-controlled but listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, stand out in terms of assets. Both Bank Rakyat Indonesia and Bank Mandiri control assets that exceed IDR 1,000 trillion (approx. USD $69 billion) per 30 June 2018.
Bank Indonesia, the central bank of Indonesia, said credit growth in the domestic banking sector reached 7.4 percent year-on-year (y/y) per November 2017, lower than the growth rate in the preceding month (8.1 percent y/y). In absolute terms credit growth in Indonesia's banking sector stood at IDR 4,635 trillion (approx. USD $343 billion) in the January-November 2017 period.
Several big state-controlled banks in Indonesia posted double-digit profit growth in the third quarter of 2017, extending the positive corporate performance that was posted by these banks in the preceding quarters. This performance comes on the back of sliding reserves in line with rising credit growth, an improvement in the quality of banks' loans and lower non-performing loan (NPL) ratios.
As we are in the middle of earnings season, it is interesting to take a look at the January-June 2017 corporate earnings reports of Indonesia's listed companies. Something that stands out so far is the good earnings of banks and commodity-related companies (mining and agriculture). Of Indonesia's 15 biggest banks (in terms of assets) only four experienced a contraction in net profit. This good performance comes in times when credit growth has remained rather bleak in Indonesia. So where does banks' excellent profit growth come from?
The big Indonesian banks that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) have seen their shares surge so far in 2017. Moreover, their share performance is expected to retain this momentum in the second half of 2017. Among the big banks Bank Danamon Indonesia is leading the race. Its shares have surged 34.77 percent so far this year, followed by Bank Rakyat Indonesia (+27.62 percent), Bank Negara Indonesia (+26.70 percent), Bank Mandiri (+16.85 percent), and Bank Central Asia (+18.39 percent).
Credit growth in Indonesia's banking sector is estimated to have, finally, touched double-digit figures in the first half of 2017, while growth should further accelerate in the remainder of the year. Some Indonesian banks saw their credit growth figures touch 20 percent (y/y) so far this year, a marked improvement from the situation one year ago. Lets zoom in on the performance of two big Indonesian banks.
Following the announcement last year, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) has again stated that it is to ease the minimum statutory reserves (in Indonesian: giro wajib minimum) regulations for conventional local banks (both for rupiah and foreign-denominated currencies). With this looser approach, banks can manage their liquidity more effectively, which should lead to reduced volatility on the overnight money market ("interest rate buffer").
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There currently are some major concerns over an international banking crisis after three American banks collapsed in March 2023 (Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and Silvergate Bank; all catering largely to the tech sector), while it necessitated an acquisition by rival UBS to prevent Switzerland-based global investment bank Credit Suisse from collapsing. This brings back the haunting memories of the 2008 financial crisis.
If you move to Indonesia for a longer period – either for work or just for living – you will most likely want (or need) to open a bank account at a local bank (or a foreign bank that has a branch in Indonesia). After all, if you continue to use a foreign bank account, then it will involve relatively high bank charges each time you withdraw money from the automated teller machine (ATM) in Indonesia, or when you conduct an international transaction (online banking).
Both Moody's Investors Service and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released positive reports on Indonesia's banking sector. While Moody's changed its outlook on Indonesia's banking sector from stable to positive, the IMF said Indonesia's banking system is strong enough to cope with relatively slow economic growth and a rise in bad loans.
Although generally credit growth in Indonesia has been weak so far this year, disbursement of micro credit (in Indonesian: Kredit Usaha Rakyat, or KUR) has been solid in the first eight months of the year. KUR is a government-sponsored subsidy offered to the country’s smallest entrepreneurs (for example street food vendors). Through KUR, Indonesia’s commercial banks can provide working capital at lower interest rates (compared to most other micro loans). This is made possible by an insurance plan involving state-owned insurance firms Perum Jamkrindo and Askrindo.
Bank Indonesia's decision to cut Indonesia's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) gradually from 7.50 percent at the year-start to 6.75 percent in March should lead to rising credit growth in Indonesia as borrowing costs have become less expensive. Bank Mandiri, Indonesia’s largest financial institution by assets, should see its financial performance improve due to the looser monetary policy. For Trimegah Securities the new context was reason to revise its forecast for net profit and net interest income of Bank Mandiri, a state-controlled entity that is listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (the central government owns a 60 percent stake).
Indonesia's Financial Services Authority (OJK), the central government's agency that regulates and supervises Indonesia's financial services sector, needs to hire hundreds of new staff in order to safeguard monitoring of the nation's banking sector and to enhance its early warning system in order to detect possible corruption cases. As up to 350 OJK workers are expected to return to the central bank per 1 January 2017, good monitoring of the banking sector is in jeopardy.
Indonesia's Financial Services Authority (OJK), the government agency that regulates and supervises the nation's financial services sector, is preparing a new regulation that requires conventional financial institutions in Indonesia to spin off their Islamic financial units before 17 October 2024. Islamic finance or Islamic banking is a type of banking that is in accordance to the principles of sharia (Islamic law). Based on the regulation, those financial institutions that generate at least 50 percent of their capital through Islamic finance have to comply with the new rule.
New York-based financial services firm Standard & Poor's stated that Indonesia's banking industry will feel the negative impact of Indonesia's sluggish economic growth in combination with persistently low commodity prices next year. This combination may weaken profitability of the nation's banking industry. S&P puts Indonesia's economic growth in 2016 at 5 percent (y/y), below the International Monetary Fund's and World Bank's forecast as well as the central government's target, all at 5.3 percent (y/y).
Bank Central Asia (BCA), one of the leading commercial banks in Indonesia, is estimated to continue posting growing net profit and rising credit growth in the years ahead despite the persistently sluggish domestic economy. However, contrary to the state-controlled banks - such as Bank Mandiri, Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI) and Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI) - BCA will most likely not see double-digit credit growth in the near future as BCA's customers mostly originate from the private sector. The state-controlled banks, on the other hand, have the advantage of being involved in the government's push for infrastructure development and government spending.
The banking sector remains a key sector for growth of Indonesia's financial industry as well as the country's general economic expansion as the sector posted the highest profits worldwide. Prasetiantoko Augustine, economist at Bank Tabungan Negara (BTN), said that profitability in Indonesia's banking sector is not only highest in the ASEAN and Southeast Asian region but also worldwide. Bank Rakyat Indonesia posted the highest profit of Indonesian banks in 2013 (IDR 21 trillion), followed by Bank Mandiri (IDR 18 trillion) and BCA (IDR 14 trillion).
