The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and benchmark stock index (IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index) both plunged severely after the US Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday (19/03) to cut another USD $10 billion from its bond-buying program (quantitative easing). Moreover, speculation arose that US interest rates may increase in 2015 (the US central bank had kept interest rates close to zero for over five years to stimulate economic growth). It led to tumbling stocks, bonds and currencies across Asia on Thursday (20/03).

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Global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings reminded the investor community about the ongoing risk of a sudden reversal of capital inflows in Indonesia. In the first two months of 2014, capital inflows have been strong, reaching a total of USD $2.3 billion, a 16 percent increase from the same period last year, backed by renewed confidence in Indonesia's economic fundamentals as the current account deficit and inflation have moderated since the end of last year. However, several risks are looming causing potential volatility of capital flows.

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After recording three months of consecutive trade surpluses at the end of 2013, Indonesia's trade balance slipped back into deficit in January 2014. Indonesia - Southeast Asia's largest economy - posted a USD $430.6 million deficit in the first month of 2014. Exports fell 5.79 percent (year-on-year) to USD $14.48 billion, while imports fell 3.46 percent to USD $14.92 billion. The decline in exports were caused by the implementation of the ban on raw minerals (per 12 January 2014). Mineral ore exports fell over 70 percent (month-to-month).

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Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.15 percent to IDR 11,647 per US dollar on Wednesday (26/02). All through the day, the currency traded within a fairly narrow trading range, possibly due to market participants' wait and see attitude ahead of the release of important US economic indicators. As the US economy is improving and the US unemployment rate is declining, the Federal Reserve may wind down its quantitative easing program in a more aggressive manner soon.

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Indonesian stocks and the country's currency feel the negative impact of the further winding down of the Federal Reserve's bond-buying program (quantitative easing). Yesterday (29/01), it was announced that the Fed will cut the bond-buying program by USD $10 billion to USD $65 billion per month. Among market participants concern emerged about the stability of emerging economies amid the tapering as capital outflows are expected. After opening, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (IHSG) immediately fell more than 1 percent.

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On Wednesday (29/01), the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced to cut its massive bond-buying program (quantitative easing, QE) by another USD $10 billion after the FOMC meeting, while maintaining interest rates close to zero. Originally, the Fed's QE program, implemented in September 2012, totalled USD $85 billion per month but after the cuts in December 2013 and January 2014, it is now wound down to USD $65 billion per month and if the pace of tapering continues, the program might be over by the end of 2014.

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Asian stocks and currencies strengthened on Wednesday (29/01) after the central banks of Turkey and India tightened their monetary policies in order to attract capital inflows and restore investors' confidence. The central bank of Turkey raised its overnight lending rate aggresively from 7.75 percent to 12 percent on Tuesday (28/01); a measure which managed to calm down Asian markets. According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.20 percent to IDR 12,166 per US dollar on Wednesday.

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On Tuesday (28/01), the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate shows a volatile performance. Around 15:30 local Jakarta time, Indonesia's currency appreciated 0.08 percent against the US dollar. Market participants are waiting for the outcome of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting held on 27-28 January 2014. Most analysts expect the Federal Reserve to quicken the winding down (tapering) of its quantitative easing program. This program caused a large capital inflow in emerging economies, including Indonesia, in recent years.

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) kept its benchmark interest rate (known as the BI rate) at 7.50 percent in today's Board of Governor's meeting (09/01). The institution decided not to change its interest rate because it estimates that the inflation target for 2014 is not in jeopardy (4.5 percent) while Indonesia's economic growth prospects for 2014 and 2015 remain unchanged. Also the overnight lending facility as well as deposit facility rate (Fasbi) were kept at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively.

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Ahead of the new year, the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate continues its downward trend on Monday (30/12). Bank Indonesia's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR) fell to IDR 12,270 per US dollar from IDR 12,260 on the previous trading day. Due to the improving US economy, the US dollar keeps appreciating against the majority of emerging currencies. At most local Indonesian banks, the rupiah is traded significantly above the psychological level of IDR 12,000 per US dollar.

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Indonesian assets weakened on Friday (06/11) on expectation that US non-farm payrolls and US employment data would improve, suggesting that a Fed Fund Rate hike may occur in December 2015. Such expectations were correct. After Indonesian and other Asian markets had closed on Friday, the US Labor Department announced that October payrolls rose 271,000 (the largest increase this year), while the US unemployment rate touched a seven-year low at 5 percent. Furthermore, the average hourly earnings over the past 12 months climbed by the most since 2009.

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As Indonesia's inflation rate has eased to 6.25 percent (y/y) in October 2015 from 6.83 percent (y/y) in the previous month, and given that Indonesian inflation will ease more markedly in the last two months of 2015 as the impact of the subsidized fuel price hike in November 2014 will vanish, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) seems to have more scope to cut its current relatively high benchmark interest rate, hence giving rise to accelerated economic activity.

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In the latest edition of its flagship publication, the World Economic Outlook (WEO), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says it is concerned that sluggish global economic growth will persist in the foreseeable future particularly on the back of slowing growth in emerging markets (which account for the lion's share of global growth). The IMF's forecast for global growth in 2015 and 2016 was both cut by 0.2 percentage point to 3.1 percent (y/y) and 3.6 percent (y/y), respectively, from the July WEO Update. In 2014, the world economy grew 3.4 percent (y/y).

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After the release of US non-farm payrolls on Friday (02/10) markets are starting to doubt whether the Federal Reserve has room to raise its key Fed Fund Rate at all in 2015. In September a total of 142,000 jobs were added to the US economy, well below the market consensus of 201,000. Moreover, August non-farm payrolls were revised down to 136,000 (from 173,000 initially). It was the first time since mid-2013 that US jobs grew at such a slow pace in two consecutive months. So far in 2015 US non-farm payrolls grew at an average of 198,000 per month, significantly down from the average growth pace of 260,000 per month last year.

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After a real roller coaster ride, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) climbed 0.35 percent to 4,446.20 points at the end of the trading week. The majority of key stock indices across the globe tended to strengthen on Friday after a week characterized by severe volatility amid concern about the economic situation in China.

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During Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors it was decided on 18th August 2015 to hold the BI Rate at 7.50 percent, while maintaining the Deposit Facility rate at 5.50 percent and the Lending Facility rate at 8.00 percent. The decision is consonant with efforts to control inflation within the target corridor of 4±1 percent in 2015 and 2016. In the short term, Bank Indonesia (BI) is focused on efforts to stabilize the rupiah amid uncertainty in the global economy, by optimizing monetary operations in the rupiah and the foreign exchange market.

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For most of this year, the financial media has held a generally positive tone. There have been some exceptions in cases like the Eurozone which is still mired in a deeply divided sovereign debt crisis. But for most of the world, 2015 has been a positive period in terms of general growth in their broad trends. So it might be easy for macro investors to assume that most markets are currently establishing themselves in the bullish direction.

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For most of this year, the Indonesian rupiah has met selling pressure against the US Dollar. Year-to-date price activity in the USD/IDR shows a rise from below IDR 12,250 to new highs above IDR 13,330 per US dollar. For Indonesian export companies, this is great news as it means that their products will be cheaper for foreign consumers to buy. For the domestic economy, this creates a different set of implications as it also makes it less likely that foreign investors will be looking to buy into Indonesian assets.

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Since late 2011 Indonesia has been plagued by a structural current account deficit (CAD) that has worried both policymakers and (foreign) investors. Despite Indonesian authorities having implemented policy reforms and economic adjustments in recent years, the country’s CAD remains little-changed in 2015. The World Bank and Bank Indonesia both expect the CAD to persist at slightly below 3 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015, alarmingly close to the boundary that separates a sustainable from an unsustainable deficit.

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When we look at the long-term activity in the Indonesian rupiah, we have seen a surprising level of strength when viewing the activity seen in recent months. This has been surprising for a few different reasons, as this is not something that can be said for markets in emerging Asia as a whole. This essentially suggests that economic activity in the region has been somewhat disjointed and that trends visible in one country cannot necessarily be expected in another. But when we look at chart activity in the rupiah itself, we can see that the broader trends have started to change over the last two months.

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