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Today's Headlines Cigarettes Excise
Although Indonesia's cigarette industry is considered to be a sunset industry (which refers to an industry that has passed its peak or boom periods) there are two factors that may somewhat pause the industry's decline on the short and middle-long term.
The Industry Ministry of Indonesia still targets to see some limited growth in Indonesia's cigarette industry this year despite another excise tax hike per January 2018. Abdul Rochim, Director of Food & Beverages, Tobacco Products, and Refreshments at the Industry Ministry, acknowledged that Indonesia's cigarette industry has been under pressure in recent years but remains optimistic that it will not lead to another declining performance in Indonesia's cigarette industry in 2018.
At the start of 2018 the Indonesian government will again raise the excise tax on tobacco products (including cigarettes) in Indonesia. The tax will be raised by an average of 10.04 percent, effective per 1 January 2018. Traditionally, the government hikes the tobacco excise tax once per year in search of more tax revenue and to discourage consumption of tobacco products.
Indonesian cigarette manufacturer Gudang Garam will raise prices of its tobacco products if the central government goes ahead with its plans to introduce another cigarette excise tax hike at the start of 2018. This statement was made by Gudang Garam Director Istata Siddharta.
Production of hand-rolled clove cigarettes (kretek) fell 30 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2016 due to stricter smoking regulations in Indonesia. Kretek is a clove cigarette that consists of tobacco (70 percent), and ground cloves, clove oil as well as other additives (30 percent). These clove cigarettes are the clear favorite of Indonesia's smoker community. It is estimated that 85 percent of all smokers in Indonesia prefer kretek cigarettes over white cigarettes. In total, around 55 million Indonesians consume tobacco-related products.
The Finance Ministry of Indonesia will study whether the price of a package of cigarettes can be raised to IDR 50,000 (approx. USD $3.8), almost twice as high as the current average price of a package of cigarettes in Indonesia. The price hike would help the government to reduce a looming tax shortfall and discourage people from consuming their death sticks. The Tobacco Atlas estimates that there are 53.7 million active adult smokers and 2.6 million active youth smokers in Indonesia. Hence, Indonesia is the third-largest cigarette consumer (after China and Russia).
The year 2015 has been a tough year for Indonesia's tobacco industry due to an 8.7 percent increase in excise on tobacco products in early 2015 and people's weakening purchasing power amid the country's economic slowdown. During the first nine months of 2015 sales of cigarettes in Indonesia fell 1.3 percent (y/y) to 232 billion cigarettes. Next year, challenges will remain as the Indonesian government prepares another tobacco tax hike (23 percent). However, people's purchasing power is estimated to improve as economic growth may accelerate.
In order to generate more tax revenue in 2016 the Indonesian government plans to raise tobacco taxes by 23 percent (as mentioned in the draft of the 2016 State Budget). This plan resulted in concern among Indonesia’s cigarette producers as the country’s purchasing power has already been curtailed amid the nation’s economic slowdown and high inflation. Contrary to the global trend, the Asian region recorded solid tobacco sales growth in recent years but now these countries seem to join in on anti-tobacco measures such as higher excise taxes and large pictorial warnings on packages.
Starting from January 2015, Indonesian tobacco products are subject to an average tax rise of 8.7 percent. The excise tax on machine-rolled cigarettes becomes IDR 355 (USD $0.03) and on hand-rolled cigarettes IDR 290 (USD $0.02) per stick. The tax hike is implemented by the government in a move to increase state income through tax revenues. The higher excise tax is expected to have a minor effect on tobacco sales in Indonesia as retail prices for cigarettes remain among the lowest in the Southeast Asian region.
Latest Columns Cigarettes Excise
Every year Indonesia's Tax Office adjusts the excise tax on tobacco products. The adjustment is always made in consideration of the central government's tax revenue targets as well as the input of specific stakeholders (including pro-health lobby groups, or groups that defend the interests of tobacco manufacturers or farmers).
The Indonesian government is advised to make a new roadmap for the cigarette (and tobacco-related products) industry that includes targets for the short, middle and long-term. Moreover, the roadmap should involve strategies that aim to find a middle way between reducing cigarette consumption (protecting citizens' health) in Indonesia while at the same time optimizing lucrative state revenue from this industry (as well as safeguarding the jobs of the nearly six million of Indonesians who are working in the cigarette supply chain).
One of the last decisions of the Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono administration before being replaced by the new Joko Widodo-led administration was to raise the tobacco excise by an average of 8.7 percent per 1 January 2015. This excise will be applied to all tobacco-related manufactured products. The higher excise, stipulated by a Finance Ministry decree, will boost state income and will also help to curb smoking. About 65 percent of Indonesian men smoke, supported by the cheap price of a package of cigarettes.
