The productivity of Indonesia's human resources has improved markedly over the past 15 years. This is one of the conclusions mentioned in the latest Economic Insight: South East Asia, released by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW). This quarterly report focuses on the economic trends in the largest economies of the ASEAN countries. Vietnam and Indonesia are the top performers in terms of productivity growth (growth of the average output per worker) supported by the ongoing shift from agriculture to more capital-intensive sectors (manufacturing and the service industries).

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On 5 June 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as Indonesia's fiscal credibility, inflation, manufacturing activity, the impact of a possible US interest rate hike, credit ratings, slavery, crude oil, and more.

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In the first quarter of 2016 Indonesia's manufacturing activity declined 1.34 percent from the fourth quarter of 2015 according to data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). This decline is primarily caused by weaker growth of the processed tobacco industry (-9.99 percent q/q), rubber & plastic industry (-7.66 percent q/q), paper & paper products industry (-5.73 percent q/q), the motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers industry (-4.54 percent q/q), and electrical equipment (-4.13 percent q/q). BPS Head Suryamin said the decline of the tobacco industry was caused by a weak harvest, not because of a rise in the tobacco tax rate.

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On 3 April 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as Indonesia´s 11th economic policy package, the latest inflation and manufacturing figures, an update on palm oil export, tenders for geothermal power development, fruit export, the fuel price policy, and much more.

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After having experienced 17 straight months of contraction in the manufacturing sector, the Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) survey rose to a reading of 50.6 in March 2016 from 48.7 in the preceding month (a reading above 50 indicates expansion of manufacturing activity) according to a statement released on Friday (01/04). This is very positive news although Indonesia's export performance remains in a state of decline. Manufacturing expansion was primarily caused by a rise in domestic demand.

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In its March 2016 Indonesia Economic Quarterly, titled "Private Investment is Essential", the World Bank cut its forecast for Indonesia's economic growth in 2016 to 5.1 percent year-on-year (y/y) from an earlier estimate of 5.3 percent (y/y). This downward revision was made due to weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, further weakening commodity prices, and limitations to Indonesian government spending brought about by a looming shortfall in tax revenue.

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Despite having contracted for 17 straight months, there has emerged optimism that Indonesia's manufacturing industry will rebound in 2016. Yesterday (01/03), Markit Economics announced that the Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed a reading of 48.7 in February 2016, slightly down from a reading of 48.9 in the preceding month (a reading below 50 signals contraction). According to Markit economist Pollyanna De Lima Indonesia's manufacturing sector continues to show a recovering trend, despite the soft decline in February.

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For the 17th straight month Indonesia's manufacturing sector contracted. Based on the latest survey from Nikkei, the Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed a reading of 48.7 in February 2016, slightly down from a reading of 48.9 in the preceding month (a reading below 50 indicates that manufacturing activity has contracted). It confirms that both global and domestic growth remained subdued in the first months of 2016, hence new orders continued to decline, while unemployment rose.

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Indonesia's manufacturing industry was worth IDR 2,097.7 trillion (approx. USD $156 billion) in 2015, contributing 18.1 percent to the country's gross domestic product (GDP), up from 17.8 percent of GDP in the preceding year. However, this higher contribution of manufacturing to the economy is mainly caused by the declining roles of oil & gas, commodities, agriculture and mining within the Indonesian economy. These sectors have all seen their roles decline amid persistently low commodity prices.

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Although at a slower pace, Indonesia's manufacturing activity continued to contract in January 2016. According to the latest Nikkei survey, the Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 48.9 in the first month of 2016 from a reading of 47.8 in the preceding month (a reading below 50 signals contraction in the manufacturing sector). It was the 16th consecutive month of contraction in Indonesia's manufacturing sector as domestic and global economic growth remains subdued.

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The manufacturing sector is a strategic one for the Indonesian economy (albeit it is facing a number of major challenges). The Indonesian government therefore has high hopes and ambitions for the national manufacturing sector.

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Over the past five decades the Indonesian economy has evolved from one being highly dependent on agriculture to one in which industry and services dominate the national economy.

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After the surprise in February 2020 (when – contrary to expectations and in stark contrast to the global trend – manufacturing activity in Indonesia soared), matters turned normal in March 2020. In line with expectations, Indonesia’s manufacturing production and new orders contracted at record rates in March, making companies decide to cut back sharply on their purchasing activity and input inventories. Business conditions in fact deteriorated at a rate not seen before in the history of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey.

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An alarming report was released by the World Trade Organization (WTO) on 1 October 2019. In the report the WTO notes that ongoing global trade tensions, led by tariff troubles between the United States and China, are doing harm to global economic growth in ways not seen since the financial crisis one decade ago.

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Manufacturing activity in Indonesia increased in June 2019 albeit at a much slower pace than in the preceding month. Expansion in the nation’s manufacturing sector was dragged down by softer expansion in both production and new orders.

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Manufacturing activity in Indonesia improved in May 2019 due to an increase in output and new orders. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 50.4 in April 2019 to 51.6 in the following month, its highest position in nine months (a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction, while a reading above 50.0 indicates expansion in manufacturing activity).

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Based on the latest data from IHS Markit, the headline seasonally adjusted Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell modestly to a reading of 50.5 in October 2018 (from 50.7 in the preceding month). The reading represents a marginal improvement in the health of Indonesia’s manufacturing sector.

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Manufacturing activity in Indonesia expanded in September 2018. However, the pace of growth slowed compared to the preceding month. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined from August's 26-month high of 51.9 to 50.7 in September (a reading of 50.0 separates contraction from expansion in the manufacturing sector).

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Rising domestic demand caused Indonesia's August manufacturing activity to grow at the fastest pace in more than two years. As a result local manufacturing companies added new people to their staff. The headline seasonally adjusted Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) grew to 51.9 in August 2018 (up from 50.5 in the preceding month), further above the 50.0 level that separates expansion from contraction in terms of manufacturing activity.

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Although manufacturing activity in Indonesia rose slightly in July 2018, there are a number of reasons to be concerned. The headline seasonally adjusted Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indeed grew modestly from a reading of 50.3 in June to 50.5 in July (a reading of 50.0 separates contraction from expansion in the nation's manufacturing activity). However, overall conditions remain lacklustre in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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