Today, the Indonesian government announced it extended a tax incentive for “pioneering” industries. This term refers to those industries that are considered key industries that cause a multiplier effect in the Indonesian economy (hence boosting economic) and provide employment opportunities for the local population. Examples of such industries are oil refinery, infrastructure, maritime transport, telecommunications, downstream metal production and agriculture processing. The extended incentive is effective per 16 August 2015.

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Through capital injections the Indonesian government aims to enhance the role of various state-owned enterprises (SOEs) within the process of economic development. In the recently unveiled 2016 State Budget draft, which still requires approval from Indonesia’s House of Representatives, the government allocated a total of IDR 48.2 trillion (approx. USD $3.6 billion) to 24 SOEs in five priority sectors: food security, infrastructure & maritime development, energy security, strategic industry development, and national economic autonomy.

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On Friday (14/08) the Indonesian government unveiled its 2016 State Budget draft at a session in the House of Representatives (DPR). The draft is important as it shows government targets regarding the macroeconomy of Indonesia and it shows on what fields the government will focus in terms of public spending. The government - led by Indonesian President Joko Widodo - is optimistic that economic growth will finally rebound after four years of slowing economic growth as its 2016 GDP growth target was set at 5.5 percent (y/y).

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In response to the release of Indonesia’s official Q2-2015 GDP growth figure, which puts the country’s economic growth pace at 4.67 percent year-on-year (a six-year low), President Joko Widodo said the economy of Indonesia is bound to improve in the second quarter of the year, particularly from September onwards. Widodo said slowing economic growth was the result of troubled government budget absorption at both the central level and regional level. Moreover, the country has been plagued by external factors.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced today (05/08) that the Indonesian economy grew 4.67 percent (y/y) in the second quarter of 2015, the slowest pace since 2009. However, the result was in line with expectation. Most analysts assumed that economic growth would continue to slow as there has been no rebound in global commodity prices, interest rates remained high, people’s purchasing power weakened, government spending remained problematic, companies Q2-2015 earnings reports were not too good, and manufacturing contracted.

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Today (28/07), Indonesian President Joko Widodo, who is often referred to as Jokowi, went on his first state visit to Singapore where he will discuss trade, investment and bilateral issues with Singaporean President Tony Tan Keng Yam, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, and 150 Singaporean CEOs in a bid to enhance cooperation between both nations. President Widodo is accompanied by Indonesian Trade Minister Rachmat Gobel, Chief Economics Minister Sofyan Djalil, and Foreign Affairs Minister Retno Marsudi, among others.

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The Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) announced today (27/07) that - in rupiah terms - foreign direct investment (FDI) in Indonesia rose 18.2 percent (y/y) to IDR 92.2 trillion rupiah in the second quarter of 2015, the fastest growth pace recorded since 2013. However, in US dollar terms, FDI fell to USD $7.38 billion in Q2-2015 from USD $7.43 billion in the same quarter one year earlier. The BKPM uses an IDR 12,500 per US dollar exchange rate in 2015 and an IDR 10,500 per US dollar exchange rate in 2014.

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Although the Indonesian government is having difficulty to enhance infrastructure spending, a statement from Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) Chairman Franky Sibarani conveyed a more positive message. On Monday (20/07), Sibarani announced that since October 2014 the BKPM issued about IDR 335 trillion (approx. USD $25 billion) worth of investment licenses for infrastructure projects, triple the figure from the same period one year earlier, implying that President Joko Widodo’s promotional efforts have had success.

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The World Bank cut its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia in 2015 from 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 4.7 percent (y/y) as private consumption, which accounts for about 55 percent of total economic growth in Indonesia, is estimated to weaken further in the second half of 2015 while government spending has been lower than expected (causing subdued fixed investment). Furthermore, persistent low commodity prices and tighter credit conditions provide further pressures that led to the extreme downward revision.

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The Indonesian government targets to narrow the budget deficit to between 1.9 and 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2016 from a projected budget deficit of 2.2 percent of GDP in 2015. Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro said on Monday (06/07) that in 2016 the government will continue to prioritize spending on infrastructure development as well as energy and food. President Joko Widodo is scheduled to officially announce the 2016 State Budget in a speech in front of parliament on 16 August 2015.

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State-controlled toll road constructor and operator Jasa Marga is expected to post rising revenue and net profit in the years to come as its toll road network is expanding amid the government's drive to push for infrastructure development, including toll road development. Recently Jasa Marga was awarded four toll road projects - all on the island of Java - with a total length of 262.3 kilometers (valued at IDR 18.4 trillion). Up to 2017 Jasa Marga plans to commission some 313 kilometers of toll road.

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After Japan was disappointed by not being awarded the contract to build a high-speed railway between Indonesia's capital city of Jakarta and Bandung (West Java), the Indonesian government now plans to offer the revitalization of the northern Java railway to Japan. Another project that is expected to be offered to Japan is the Patimban seaport project in Subang (West Java). Indonesian President Joko Widodo is currently in Japan for a two-day visit to attend the Group of Seven summit on invitation of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

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It is estimated that Indonesia will need some USD $450 billion in funds to finance the government's infrastructure development plans for the 2015-2019 period. However, through the state budgets the government can only deliver USD $230 billion, or roughly 50 percent of required funds. The remainder should originate from the private sector (30 percent of total funds) and state-controlled enterprises (20 percent). However, is it likely that the private sector (both foreign and domestic) is to come up with USD $141 billion for investment in infrastructure up to 2019?

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With the Indonesian government showing its commitment to push for infrastructure development, the property sector of Indonesia is expected to get a boost as infrastructure development opens access to new areas. For example, Indonesia's first high-speed train project that is to connect Jakarta and Bandung (in West Java) is expected to give rise to new economic centers and cities along the 142 kilometers-long railway. Moreover, existing property in the proximity of a new infrastructure project should lead to significantly rising property prices.

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The Indonesian government plans to offer 10 toll road projects - with a total length of 520.83 kilometers - to investors before the end of the year. The projects are estimated to have a total value of IDR 109.58 trillion (approx. USD $8.3 billion). The offering of these projects are in line with the government's efforts to boost infrastructure development across the country. Such development will enhance inter and intra island connectivity, thus curbing the nation's high logistics costs and offer a more attractive investment climate to (potential) investors.

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Two state-controlled companies (both listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange) are expected to feel the positive impact of the light rail transit (LRT) in Palembang (South Sumatra), a transportation project currently under construction. These two companies are construction firm Waskita Karya and cement producer Semen Baturaja. These two companies are heavily involved in the LRT project that is estimated to cost around USD $520 million. This LRT track is supportive infrastructure for the 2018 Asian Games, to be held in South Sumatra in August 2018.

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Indonesia's economic growth in the first quarter of 2016 was rather disappointing at 4.92 percent (y/y), below analyst estimates that averaged around 5 percent (y/y), due to slowing household consumption, private investors being in a wait-and-see mode, and relatively weak government spending (a usual phenomenon at the year-start). Indonesia's construction sector also grew weakish in Q1-2016. However, the construction sector still has good prospects in the years ahead on the back of the government's infrastructure projects.

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If we look back on the month of April, two important matters - related to the economy - occurred in Indonesia this month: (1) in the first week of April, the Indonesian government managed to complete the Revised 2016 State Budget (RAPBN-P 2016), and, one week later, (2) the central bank (Bank Indonesia) announced it will adopt a new benchmark monetary tool per 19 August 2016 - the so-called seven-day reverse repurchase rate - that is to replace the existing BI rate (which fails to influence market liquidity effectively).

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Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI), one of the leading banks in Indonesia, is expected to maintain rising net profit figures in the years ahead due to its decision to focus on (corporate) credit disbursement for domestic infrastructure development projects. In fact, according to RHB OSK Securities, BNI may become the state-controlled bank that benefits most from the government decision to raise its infrastructure budget to IDR 313.5 trillion (approx. USD $24 billion) in the 2016 State Budget. Last year, growth of credit disbursed by BNI to infrastructure projects climbed 116.2 percent (y/y). This year infrastructure credit may grow by another 19 percent.

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Public spending on infrastructure development in Indonesia is not optimal. Sofyan Djalil, Indonesia's National Development Planning Minister as well as Head of the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas), says immature and non-integrated planning between ministries and other government agencies as well as between the central and regional governments cause inefficient and non-optimal infrastructure spending. Non-optimal infrastructure development implies that Indonesia's overall economic growth as well as social development cannot achieve its full potential.

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