The latest survey of Indonesia’s central bank showed that consumer confidence fell slightly in November 2014 amid concern that the recent subsidized fuel price hike will lead to decreased business activity as well as reduced job availability in the next six months in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Bank Indonesia’s consumer confidence index fell to 120.1 points from 120.6 points in October. The institution interviewed 4,600 households in 18 major Indonesian cities for this survey.

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Indonesia’s Central Statistics Agency (BPS) announced on Monday (01/12) that the country’s inflation figure accelerated to 6.23 percent year-on-year (y/y) in November 2014 (from 6.23 percent y/y in the previous month) due to the impact of higher subsidized fuel prices implemented by the Indonesian government. On 18 November, prices for subsidized fuels (low-octane gasoline and diesel) were raised by more than 30 percent in a bid to reallocate public spending from fuel consumption to productive long-term development.

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According to the central bank of Indonesia, inflation may reach around 8 percent (year-on-year) by the end of 2014 as a result of the higher subsidized fuel prices. In the early hours of Tuesday (18/11), subsidized fuel prices (gasoline and diesel) were raised by more than 30 percent in an attempt to reallocate government funds to more productive sectors as well as to curb the country’s wide current account deficit. Peaks in Indonesia’s inflation usually correlate with administered price adjustments.

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International credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service is positive about the subsidized fuel price hike that was conducted by the government of Indonesia on Monday (17/11) as it shows commitment of the government to implement reforms that support the strengthening of the economy, such as curbing Indonesia’s fiscal and current account deficits. Moody’s estimates that these developments are positive for the country’s sovereign rating (now at Baa3/stable) as well as for state-owned energy firm Pertamina (Baa3/stable).

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Main news headlines in Indonesia still cover the higher subsidized fuel prices implemented starting from the early hours of Tuesday (18/11). The previous evening, Indonesian President Joko Widodo had announced that prices of subsidized gasoline and diesel were to be raised by over 30 percent, immediately leading to long queues at local gas stations as well as public outcry as people’s purchasing power will diminish. Analysts and economists, however, agree that this move is correct and can lead to structurally higher GDP growth.

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The central bank of Indonesia decided to raise its key interest rate (BI rate) by 25 basis points from 7.50 percent to 7.75 percent on Tuesday (18/11) in a response to the subsidized fuel price hike. One day earlier, Indonesian President Joko Widodo had announced that prices of subsidized gasoline and diesel were to be raised by more than 30 percent starting from midnight in an effort to create more fiscal space for economic and social development. This move is expected to result in accelerated inflation in Southeast Asia’s largest economy.

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Indonesian President Joko Widodo announced yesterday evening (17/11) that prices of subsidized fuels will be raised by over 30 percent starting from midnight in an effort to reduce state expenses on non-productive matters. Low-octane gasoline (premium) will now cost IDR 8,500 (USD $0.70) per liter, while diesel now costs IDR 7,500 (USD $0.62) per liter. This sudden announcement immediately led to long queues at local gas stations as people still had three hours to enjoy cheaper fuel rates.

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Global rating agency Fitch Ratings affirmed Indonesia’s Sovereign Credit Rating at BBB-/stable outlook (investment grade status) on Thursday (13/11). This rating affirmation by the credit rating agency can be regarded as international recognition of prudent fiscal policy in Southeast Asia’s largest economy amid global uncertain times. Policy responses pursued by both the government and central bank of Indonesia have been well received by Fitch Ratings and managed to safeguard economic stability.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced today (after the Board of Governors’ meeting) that it keeps the benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent. The lending facility rate and the deposit rate are maintained at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Bank Indonesia, said that interest rates were maintained as the country’s current account deficit narrowed to 3.07 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2014.

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The central bank of Indonesia is expected to keep its key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent at the next Board of Governors’ meeting (scheduled for Thursday 13 November 2014) in anticipation of accelerated inflation triggered by higher prices of subsidized fuels. The Indonesian government plans to raise prices of subsidized gasoline and diesel before the end of the month in an attempt to curb the country’s wide current account deficit and reallocate government funds to more structural or productive activities than fuel consumption.

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Despite rising concerns about the slowing pace of the Indonesian economy, the deputy minister of Finance Bambang Brodjonegoro reminded investors that Indonesia's economic growth in the third quarter of 2013 still constitutes one of the highest growth rates around the globe. Economic expansion in Q3-2013 slid to 5.6% in Southeast Asia's largest economy. With the exception of China (7.8% GDP growth in Q3-2013), Indonesia's growth continues to outpace growth in other emerging markets, such as Brazil (3.3%) and Turkey (4%).

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Amid negative market sentiments, brought on by domestic factors, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) and rupiah exchange rate plunged on Wednesday (13/11). For many investors, in particular foreign investors, Indonesia's central bank's decision to raise the benchmark interest rate (BI rate) by 25 bps to 7.50 percent yesterday (12/11) was reason to engage in stock selling. It was worsened by the continued decline of the rupiah as well as weak Asian stock indices and weak stock openings in Europe.

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Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) started Tuesday's trading day (12/11) slightly in the red. However, after the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced to have raised its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) by 25 bps to 7.50 percent, the IHSG quickly plunged. The interest rate hike is considered as a sign that Bank Indonesia is still concerned about the nation's macroeconomy, particularly Indonesia high inflation (8.32 percent yoy in October 2013). The index fell 1.38 percent to 4,380.64 points.

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Bank Indonesia decided to raise the BI rate by 25 bps to the level of 7.50 percent, with the Lending Facility rate and Deposit Facility rate raised to 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. This policy was taken in light of the persistently large current account deficit amid widespread global uncertainty. Therefore, the decision was taken in order to ensure that the current account deficit is reduced to a more sound level and inflation in 2014 returns to around 4.5±1 percent, thereby supporting sustainable economic growth.

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The Jakarta Composite index (Indonesia's benchmark stock index or IHSG) fell on Monday (11/11) amid mixed Asian markets. Not even positive finishes on Wall Street last Friday (08/11) were able to support the IHSG. Most investors seem to be waiting for results of Bank Indonesia's Board of Governor's Meeting which is scheduled for Tuesday (12/11). This meeting will provide answers about the central bank's view of the domestic economy and whether it thinks another adjustement of the BI rate is necessary.

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Indonesia's October inflation rate was well-received by investors. On Friday (01/11), Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced that the country's inflation in October 2013 grew 0.09 percent. Easing inflation was mainly due to falling prices of raw foods and clothes. Year-on-year (yoy), however, Indonesia's inflation is still high at 8.32 percent, although showing a moderating trend from 8.40 percent (yoy) in September 2013 and 8.79 percent (yoy) in August 2013. Inflation had skyrocketed after subsidized fuel prices were raised by an average 33 percent in June.

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Forecasts for Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2013 and beyond have been revised down by all institutions, including the Indonesian government and central bank as well as international organizations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Initially, the country’s economic growth was expected to reach around 6.5 percent in 2013. However, most institutions have downgraded forecasts for the country’s economic growth to below the 6.0 percent mark.

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Today (18/10), the Governor of Bank Indonesia and the Chairman of the Indonesian Financial Services Authority (OJK) signed an agreement concerning “cooperation and coordination to support task implementation at Bank Indonesia and OJK”. The agreement forms a basis for expediting and optimising coordination between both organisations in terms of their function, task and authority in light of the upcoming transfer of the banking regulation and supervision function from Bank Indonesia to OJK on 31 December 2013.

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On 12 October 2013 Finance Minister and Central Bank Governors from Korea and Indonesia agreed to establish a bilateral KRW/IDR swap arrangement in the near future. The size of the swap arrangement is up to KRW 10.7 trillion/IDR 115 trillion (equivalent to USD $10 billion). The effective period of the facility will be three years, and could be extended by agreement by both sides. This Bilateral Currency Swap Arrangement (BCSA) aims to promote bilateral trade and further strengthen financial cooperation, an objective of mutual interest to both countries.

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Although Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) started mixed on Wednesday (09/10), it gradually climbed as the trading day moved on. The country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate), which was kept at 7.25 percent by Bank Indonesia on Tuesday (08/10), continued to make a positive impact. However, negative market sentiments were brought on by the US shutdown as well as the downgrade of the IMF's outlook for world economic growth in 2013 and 2014. Lastly, the weakening IDR rupiah also implied negative market sentiments.

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